Trump's General Election Pivot

tells anxious Democrats to chill out. Daniela Diaz of Politico joins to talk about the Republican

shutdown shitshow. And Dan and I weigh in on what is by far the most consequential issue

in Congress this week, what John Fetterman is wearing.

Oof, gotta steal myself for that one. Alright, but first, even though the Iowa caucuses are

still four months away, Donald Trump is already acting like he beat his primary opponents

and the 91 felony charges he's facing. He's now reportedly skipping the third Republican

debate in Florida, and he's skipping next week's debate here in California so that he can give a

primetime speech in the battleground state of Michigan, where he will pretend to be pro-worker

to an audience that will reportedly include plumbers, electricians, pipefitters, and autoworkers

whose union is currently on strike. Trump's also been trying to pretend he's more moderate than

most Republicans on the issue of abortion, which is finally getting him some actual criticism from

the popular Republican governors of Iowa and Georgia, as well as his sorry excuse for a primary

opponent, Ron DeSantis, who hit Trump on the issue during an Iowa radio interview.

for enacting pro-life protections. So I think if he's going into this saying he's going to make

the Democrats happy with respect to right to life, I think all pro-lifers should know that

Do you think he said that because his favorite podcasters advised him to on Tuesday's show?

Just before he leaves.

thought that Ron DeSantis could give a real challenge to Donald Trump with that voice.

heard this criticism because he then went back to bragging about ending the constitutional right to

abortion when he was in Iowa. Let's listen. And last year, I was able to do something that

And it's thanks to the three great Supreme Court justices and others on the court

significant number of Republicans in Iowa or elsewhere who will decide that Trump coming out

against a six-week abortion ban is just, it's a bridge too far?

they used ads, they used the media to try to paint Trump as soft on abortion by using a clip

where he went on Meet the Press in 1999 and said, I'm very pro-choice. The voters rejected that then.

Why would they fall for it now after Trump has done everything in office that the anti-abortion

groups wanted him to do? And even if there were some voters, the latest polls have Trump up by

30 in Iowa. So you'd have to find a third of Republican voters who thought this in order to

catch him. It's just, it's sure, points for trying here, but it seems very, very challenging.

to an abortion. The reason that Ron DeSantis got to pass a six-week abortion ban is because of

Donald Trump. And he's basically telling his voters that being against a six-week abortion ban

is what he needs to help get him elected president again. And most of the Republican party,

most of the voters, most of Trump's supporters would rather Donald Trump be president than get

a six-week abortion ban or even a national ban. They just, they don't care that much about policy.

They care about Donald Trump. That's who they love. That's who they worship. So I think it's

to care about policy. Trump doesn't pretend, right? Abortion is only a way to get more power.

And if being, if being, and he would just tell people if being for a six-week ban helped him

before a six-week ban, but it doesn't. So he isn't right. That's it. That's it. And they're like,

need to do to get into the white house. And that's the most important goal, not abortion. And, and

most of the Republican voters are like, yeah, no, we don't care. Uh, the big question for the general

though, is whether Trump can fool enough voters into thinking he's not as extreme on abortion

as the typical Republican. Uh, we talked about this on Tuesday. I said, I am a little worried.

Uh, apparently the Biden folks are too. Political reports at the Biden campaign

saw Trump's comments as quote, a flashing red light. Uh, what do you think? I share your worry.

not between Republicans and Democrats. It's between people who follow political news closely

and those who don't. And in, in yes, abortion was the issue that drove the midterms. It helped

Democrats win races. We shouldn't have won. That could happen again, but it's worth noting that if

turnout in 2024 looks anything like the turnout in 2020, there's going to be about 50 million

people who did not vote in 2022 who are in this election. And most of them do not follow political

news closely. They have, in fact, may not have paid any real attention to politics since the

last time they voted. And actually I think because the way the media environment has changed,

the less frequent voters are less engaged with political news than they have ever been in the

past because they're no longer running into it in social media in the same way they before in

the local news in the same way that before. And so, yeah, he has a version. He doesn't persuade

all of them or most of them. He just has to persuade some of them. And that is a very real

very liberal or very conservative. And I wouldn't use the word moderate, but they have views on

issues on a set of issues that are complicated. So they may be pro-choice, but they might not be

so pro-choice that that's going to be the issue that they vote on. They may care about inflation

more. They may care about immigration more, whatever. People are complicated and they get

more complicated in their political views when they are the type of people who only show up to

vote in presidential elections. I know there's a lot of like running around and cheering about

special elections and democratic overperformance, which there has been over the last several years

about the midterms when Democrats overperformed and there wasn't a red wave. But again, you know,

the way that the coalitions of both parties have changed, we now have voters who are in the

democratic party who tend to be to pay attention to the news more closely, who are more politically

engaged, college educated voters, and they show up in specials and they show up in midterms and

they'll show up in the presidential race for sure. But like you said, there's a whole bunch of other

people who are going to show up who have not shown up in the midterms, who have not shown up in these

special elections, but did show up in 2016 and did show up in 2020. So Trump, Trump not only said

that in Iowa, he also truthed about it. He posted a truth that said I killed Roe and then Joe Biden

X'd that truth. He ate my life. And he warned that Trump will go even further if he gets back

to the White House. I imagine that this will continue to be a focus of the Biden campaign's

advertising. They've already run some ads about this, about Trump's record on abortion and what

he will plan to do. Anything else you think they should be doing? Toots, skeets, threads.

Toots and skeets. We need more toots and skeets. I think it's good that Biden went after this.

at the top of the political agenda, to make sure it's a salient issue.

One tactical thing, this isn't necessarily for the Biden campaign to do, but that some political

entity could do, is in 2012, one thing that the Obama campaign did that was very helpful was

we knew from our polling that Republican efforts, including Mitt Romney's support of defunding

Planned Parenthood, was incredibly unpopular with what we used to call our up-for-grabs

universe of voters, women within that group who were either deciding between voting and not voting

or between Obama and Romney. And so the campaign went up on the air at low levels on programs that

over-indexed on women viewers, with months, just a steady run of ads about defunding Planned

Parenthood. A similar effort could happen here. It's not going to work the same way because the

media is very different, but you could see it on Instagram or other social platforms, but a digital

and linear TV low-level campaign about Trump and abortion that just goes up soon and stays up the

whole time as a way to just make sure that he can't wiggle out of his most extreme positions.

they're celebrities, whoever, on non-traditional media, non-political media, to get this message

out there? Because as you said, there's just a lot of people who aren't paying attention to

or consuming political media, political news, like they used to. And you mentioned women,

which is obviously key, also young people. And wherever young people are getting not just their

news, but just their content in general, getting some pro-choice surrogates, whether they're

connected to the Biden campaign or not, out there in those media outlets or in those places where

people are getting their content, it seems like that would be a good idea too. Absolutely.

All right. So let's talk about Trump's trip to Michigan next week. So far, his only comments

about the UAW strike have been when he said on Meet the Press that, quote, the autoworkers are

being sold down the river by their leadership. But the decision to give a speech in Detroit

is reportedly making some Democrats nervous because that's who we are now. Here's a political

lead from yesterday. Now, that's who we are now. Yeah, right. Yeah, now it's been like 20 years,

30 years, 40 years. A long history of self-assured cockiness. Yeah, that's us. All right. So here's

political lead from yesterday. Some Joe Biden allies fear that Donald Trump is outmaneuvering

them on the autoworker strike. They also worry it's a sign that the ex-president has a more

sophisticated campaign than in previous cycles and that Biden's operation needs to step it up.

All right. Before we get to our party's perpetual angst, what do you think of Donald Trump's attempt

to sell himself as a champion of the working class, which in fairness, he has been trying to

since 2016 with some varying levels of success? This is a very savvy move from the perspective

rally with union workers. And that is a signal that he is unlike all these other Republicans

who want to cut taxes for corporations and do all these other things. So in that sense,

it's very good. Now, there's a little bit of a myth that Trump has had great success in peeling

union voters away from Democrats. As an example, in 2012, according to the exit polls, Obama won

union voters by 18 points. In 2020, Biden won them by 16 points. But just simply seeming a

little bit less like a corporatist shill than other Republicans could help Trump into state

It's also an attempt more broadly to just peel away working class voters from the Democratic

Party, which Trump has had some success doing among certainly among white working class voters,

but increasingly, non college educated working class, black and Latino voters as well,

particularly men, you know, and look, he, he's out there, he makes a lot of noise about

the ills of free trade and foreign competition. And, you know, says that the Democrats so that

the message now from Trump and JD Vance and all those assholes is, you know, Democrats have sold

out the working class to the coastal elites in their base in Hollywood and academia. And it's like,

you know, it's like shit that Republicans have been saying since the 70s. But now you've got

the leader of the party doing it. And I will say that Trump's approach is quite different than his

opponents. If you want to hear what a pre Trump Republican sounds like on these issues, here's

what Tim Scott had to say about the strike. I think Ronald Reagan gave us a Ronald Reagan

gave us a great example, when federal employees decided it was right. Either you strike your fire

civil concept to me to the extent that we could use that once again, absolutely.

I mean, wouldn't you rather run against that message than Trump's message,

even though we know Trump's message is a fucking lie and complete bullshit.

you read that Biden's getting outmaneuvered. But this is evidence that Trump is running a more

sophisticated campaign that he has in the past, for sure. Yeah. And we should everyone should be

well aware of that fact as we how we think about this race. But one thing he is doing is he's

getting back to his 2016 roots. And this way 16 roots is run right on cultural issues,

and tack a little bit left on economic issues from your party. Remember in that race,

rhetorically, at least rhetorically, yeah, yeah, the man, the man campaigns like Pat Buchanan

governs like Paul Ryan, but he ran in that race, he he would said, no cut Social Security,

Medicare or Medicaid. He talked, even though he went against his own white papers about

being against tax cuts for the rich and corporate tax cuts and wanting to close the hedge fund

loophole and all these other things, because he understood that the Republicans had this

working class base that they had to appeal to. And that he's, he lost that in 2020,

he turned the whole thing into a bunch of grievances about himself. And he's returning

to those roots, whether it'll work or not, whether he can stick to it is an open question. But

when he was running in 2020, he had a record that Democrats pointed out where he, you know,

stopped a minimum wage hike, restricted overtime pay made it harder to join a union gutted health

and safety protections for workers, tried to take away healthcare for millions by repealing the

Affordable Care Act. And then, you know, passed a big giant tax cut that benefited the richest

people in America and corporations, especially those that want to do ship people's jobs overseas.

So that was his record. And Democrats pointed out, and I do think we probably need to do that again,

because, you know, I miss the days when Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan would brag about how they

wanted to gut people's healthcare and retirement to give tax cuts to the rich, because the rest of

America is filled with lazy freeloaders who are just mooching off the government.

They were honest about it, at least. And it's much more difficult to pin Trump down because

he does have that record from when he was president. But again, a lot of people are just

watching the speeches or looking at the headlines and not really checking out what the record was.

And so I think that's Democrats job and Biden's job to remind people.

because he is the most anti-worker president in American history, and he's going to stand

with workers. So if you kick, if he leads with his chin there and you punch him right in the jaw,

then it's going to not going to be a savvy move at all. But we determine whether that happens.

That's something Democrats have to do. Well, speaking of that, there's apparently

a picket line, which is something no president has ever done. What do you think about that?

there is some group of people who are saying, okay, the most important governing and political

objective here for the White House is a resolution that gets the best deal possible for workers and

gets them back to work. And that's good for workers. That's good for the economy. And then

politically that's good for them. Right? So that's like the ultimate objective.

And they're probably like, well, anything that gets in the way of that,

you know, maybe good for a couple of headlines, but it's not good for the long-term objective

of getting a deal. And the UAW leadership is out there being like, we don't want politicians

involved whether, and they don't, we should say also, they do not like Donald Trump. And so it's

not working on the UAW, what Donald Trump's doing in the leadership. They have been blasting him,

but they're like, even if it's president Biden, we just don't want politicians involved. We want

to do this ourselves. So I wonder if there's that faction in the White House that is like

offering that caution, though, I agree with you that he should go do it.

I know exactly how it's going. That's the economic team is saying,

we got to get this done. If we don't get this solved, it's going to hit GDP by 0.93% in the

third quarter and what that would mean. And then you have other people who are saying, well,

just so you know, if you do this, then the next call we're going to get is from

the Screen Actors Guild and the Writers Guild to come to that one. And what about when the

teachers are on strike? You're going to go walk with them. And then they're going to people who

say, well, now it's going to look like you're responding to Trump because Trump is going to

Michigan. I get all of that. And these things are never as easy as they sound.

They're going to say that you're not supposed to insert yourself and this is the regulation and

are never as simple as a bunch of podcasters just like shooting from the hip as I just did there,

but the biggest challenge for Biden on the economy is getting attention. He did it. He's

done the right things. He largely says the right things, but no one hears it. This would be one of

the rare high profile moments that people who do not watch CNN and listen to Pod Save America

would actually know about. So you got to take it. And that's really what I think these next

few months are between this and the shutdown. These are the most high leverage moments he's

going to have to change the political trajectory on the economy and perhaps himself that he's going

to get until the campaign kicks off and you've got to take them. You got to roll the dice.

You need a high variance strategy here. It's risky, but I think it's worth doing.

was not really mentioning Trump all that much and was not focusing on Trump. And that's because,

you know, there's still a Republican primary playing out and it's still early and he's got

plenty of time. Well, now we have Donald Trump who is looking past the primary and now focusing

almost exclusively on Joe Biden because he's, you know, 30, 40 points ahead of all of his rivals

and he's skipping the debates and all that kind of stuff. Do you still think that Biden should

ignore Trump or is it time to start the general here? Because I kind of think it's time to start

every day Joe Biden has to talk about Donald Trump. I think he should be opportunistic about

it. I think Trump, whether Biden goes to the strike or not, you could engineer a moment

where Biden is with a bunch of workers somewhere or in some sort of environment where he gets asked

a question about Trump going to Michigan. He just hammers them for his anti-worker positions.

You're right. Calls them basically full of shit without using those words. You can find some

moments to do it, but you don't have to do it all the time. I do think for the outside groups and

others who are already on the air running pro-Biden ads, we're probably getting closer to the period

of time where you're going to mix in some contrast stuff with Trump to begin laying a foundation for

the campaign when it really kicks off next year. Maybe Biden should call him full of shit. That'd

have to go that far, but it would get attention. Guys full of shit. Speaking of democratic anxiety,

the piece doesn't actually have anyone saying those words, just chill, but it does say that

Mike Donilon, Biden's senior advisor, has been telling anxious Democrats that two issues,

abortion and Donald Trump, will propel Biden to re-election and that the White House plans

to continue its Rose Garden strategy with a three-pronged message that focuses on protecting

democracy, abortion rights, and a resilient economy, including a historically low unemployment

rate. And here's the kicker. Quote, in those private conversations, Democrats have been

struck by top White House aides' confidence. Some worry it's hubris. How did you feel after

reading that piece? Better? Worse? Neither? Just mainly angry at Axios.

That's it. That's why we wanted to talk about it.

I know.

Biden tells Democrats to chill the F out. We got this. And that's not, no one said that.

We know Mike Donilon. That's not how he talks, right?

is being complacent, who thinks we're all sort of fiddling while Rome burns here, all of that.

There's nothing in the Biden campaign's body language or activity that suggests they're

being complacent here. They're on the air right now spending real money because they see the

same stuff in their polling, I assume, that all the rest of Democrats are reacting to

in the public polling.

show us your polling. I don't think their polling is that much different than what

we're seeing publicly.

Which is the right thing to do, whether their polls say something different or not, but still.

what Rose Garden strategy? Joe Biden's out on the campaign trail all the time,

and he's flying around the world as president. I don't see a Rose Garden strategy from them.

focused on, and how those issues are going to propel Biden to re-election? Because I

do think that we can yell about the piece, but I thought that's the part of the piece

worth talking about.

going to be incumbent upon Biden Democrats to ensure, as we just talked about, that it

remains at the top of voters' minds. So, clear there.

The economy, Biden needs to improve his numbers on the economy. No one has won a campaign

in modern political history without winning on the economy. Biden is trailing significantly

on the economy right now. Now, the use of the term resilient in there is also something

not in quotes.

Right.

But it is consistent with how the Biden campaign's advertising has been, which is, here's where

we were, terrible. We did these things. Here's where we are now. Now, we've got to go finish

the job. And I think that's probably what they mean. But I've been really trying to

find a way to write about the politics of the economy, and I've been digging into the

polling, and it's so confusing.

But one thing that is clear is that people are still hurting. It's not all polarization.

It's not all political. There's a Navigator poll out this week that shows that 91% of

voters say that inflation is a major concern. And that's not all just Republicans watching

Fox News or just are hearing about it. There are 85% of Democrats say that. The numbers

when you get lower down the economic scale are worse. And so that says to me that even

though inflation is getting better, people are still feeling the pinch. And I think that

is different than I think we thought the economic messaging would be maybe a few months ago

when we saw consumer confidence go up, and we thought maybe it was time to make the turn.

And I think that there's going to have to be a little more balance in that.

Now, democracy really depends on how you message it, because what are we talking about?

Is it about Trump and the big lie? Is it about protecting a political system that a recent

Pew poll shows has record low approval? That one is just how they talk about that will

be very interesting to me.

and if Joe Biden went out there, Democrats go out there and talk the economy up more

than they do, then everyone will say, oh, yeah, the economy is great. And part of that

is based on Trump running around during his presidency talking about how it's the greatest

this ever, lowest unemployment rate for black people and lowest unemployment rate for Latinos

and women. And I'm doing the greatest thing ever. It's the greatest economy in the world.

And I don't know necessarily that there's evidence that Trump just talking up the economy

is what made people think the economy was good. Because when you do, you ask people

about the economy right now and they think the economy is shit. But then you ask people

about their personal finances, and it's a little bit better. But you still in that recent

CBS poll, I think, to ask people like, you know, are you are you better off than a couple

years ago than you were before the pandemic? And a good chunk of people are not better

off. And then there's another good chunk of people who are the same. And there's only

sort of a small percentage who say that they're better. So that's like that's people talking

about their personal finances and their personal feelings, not how they view the economy writ

large, right, which you could argue is more dependent on headlines, what politicians say,

what you see on the news, etc, etc. But when you're asked a question about your own personal

finances, and your own financial situation, you know, and if a whole bunch of people are

saying that it's not great, then who are we to tell them otherwise?

on the economy by talking it up more. But I think that would be a false signal. Because

what the difference between Biden and Trump is that Trump always got more Republicans

to say the economy was good than Biden gets Democrats say the economy is good. So there's

a bunch of people who are going to vote for Joe Biden, who are currently telling pollsters

they don't think the economy is good, or even that they may not approve of Joe Biden's

economic record or trust in the economy or whatever else. He could improve those numbers,

it's not going to improve him in the horse race, it's just going to get people already

voting for him to say, to tell pollsters they think the economy is good. It's the but the

risk, the backlash to that is potentially taking these people who could react negatively

to overselling the economy, who are not in your camp yet who fall into that persuadable

universe if that sort of convoluted thinking makes sense.

we have to, like, get out of the, we have to get away from the question, do you think

the economy is good or not? And get to the question, who is more likely to fight for

you? Who's more likely to fight for the middle class, and have and Biden's message should be

elect me elect a democratic majority. Here's how we'll finish the job. And if you don't,

if you vote for them, here's what they'll do. Here's what Donald Trump will do. And here's

what the Republicans will do. And then the choice becomes the democratic vision of the

Republican vision, which we're going to be, you know, ours is going to be much more popular,

according to most of the polling. And it gets you out of the question. Is it good? Is it bad?

Is it better? Is it not as good, which is just, you know, first of all, it's hard to answer.

And second of all, it's largely dependent on the economic conditions, which we can't predict.

That is by dynamics versus economics. That is what they are trying to do.

All right, before we go to break, two quick housekeeping notes. The next Republican debate

is Wednesday, September 27th, which means it's time for another Friends of the Pod group thread.

Join us on Discord for live reactions and commentary during the debate.

Don't miss out. Subscribe to Friends of the Pod to join our group thread at Crooked.com

slash friends. And maybe while you're yelling at the TV, you'll want to wear one of Crooked's

fuck that guy T-shirts with your back and better than ever. Maybe Joe Biden should wear a fuck

that guy T-shirt. How are they better? I don't know. I don't know. I just read what's in front

of me. Someone send me one. All right. Thank you, Ron Burgundy. Pick one up. Pick one up and let

it do some of the yelling for you this election season. Head to Crooked.com slash store to shop.

When we come back, Politico's Daniela Diaz joins to talk about the House Republican shit show

that's heading towards a government shutdown.

The government will shut down in 10 days if Congress can't pass a funding bill. And thanks to

the utter chaos in the House Republican caucus, it's not looking good. Here's Kevin McCarthy

feigning surprise, surprise that Republicans would try to burn the place down. This is a

who writes Politico's Huddle newsletter. Daniela, welcome to the pod.

But we're here every year. If you I'm sure you know better than everyone. It happens every year.

This isn't too new for us. But there are times that I kind of wish I covered something like,

you know, maybe a business beat, maybe something more nine to five. And I don't think to answer

your question, I don't think I'm going to sleep a lot these next couple of days. But we'll see.

I mean, I've already told my family and friends that this is my priority. And we don't know,

you know, that's on how long the government shutdown is going to happen. We should do maybe

maybe an open pool or something because it looks like it's inevitable at this point.

and the government may shut down. And they're wondering what the hell is happening? What

would you tell them?

the House is Republican led. McCarthy, when he became Speaker, said a rule that if one

Republican can oust him as Speaker, and all McCarthy's ever wanted as Speaker of the House

is to be Speaker of the House. As a result, he is now having to cater to some of the most

conservative members of his conference on a deal that could fund the government

that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer would never support, and neither would President Joe

Biden. And that is what we're witnessing right now happen real time, as the government is

inevitably likely, I say inevitably, that's what we've been saying, likely to shut down

in less than two weeks.

June, President Biden and Speaker McCarthy ended the debt ceiling standoff with a deal on federal

spending for the next two years that was designed to avoid a shutdown this fall. What happened?

negotiations started in the House with House Republicans, who apparently are not aware of

what happened back during the GOP limit deal. And when I say some of those House Republicans,

mainly House Freedom Caucus members, who are refusing to support any sort of stopgap bill

to prevent a government shutdown. But it seems like we're back at square one. A lot of us are

having deja vu of just a couple of months ago. It feels like it's the same debate happening again

and again. These House Republicans that want to bring down spending, they want to bring down

government spending. And I think it's really important to note for the audience,

regardless of whatever happens in the House, the Senate has to pass a bill to the Democratic

majority. Whatever happens in the Senate is going to go back to the House. It's going to pass with

Democratic votes and then land on President Joe Biden's desk for signature. So whatever is

happening right now in this debate that we're seeing with these five, seven really conservative

House Republicans to the right of McCarthy saying they're not going to support a stopgap bill,

it doesn't matter. In the end, they're probably not going to support whatever comes back anyway.

This is really about McCarthy trying to keep his speakership gavel and bend to the needs of what

these conservatives want so he doesn't get a motion to vacate when this all ends. And that's

these House Freedom Caucus members who are the holdouts right now is why not just let any bill

go to the Senate and then start fighting now about what they're going to let McCarthy accept when

minority always votes no. The minority is going to vote no, whatever happens. So that is why

McCarthy right now is trying to pass something along party lines that he can get to the Senate.

But really, the bigger picture is it's as you noted, it doesn't matter. It's going to come

back to the House anyway. But right now, McCarthy is still trying to make sure he doesn't get

that threat of a motion to vacate. That's the debate we're witnessing at a minute scale here

of him really bending, caving in to these House Republican needs. And he's still not winning.

continuing resolution, a temporary funding bill with only Republican votes. And they're also

trying to pass a defense bill. And how is all this going for him? What's what's the latest?

kind of a preview to what we're going to witness whenever a CR comes through, right? This is a bill,

one of the 12 appropriations bills that these appropriators have all Republican have that are

chairman, you know, on this really influential committee have been working on for months

with the top line spending numbers that were negotiated during that debt limit deal.

And it still doesn't have the support needed to get across the finish line. He cannot get

enough Republicans to even support that. And a lot of these Republicans were hearing from,

you know, Dan Bishop saying, I need to know. He's one of the ones that voted no multiple times that

during this procedural vote that just happened moments ago. He says, I need to know exactly when

every appropriations bill is going to be voted on. I need to know that he's going to McCarthy is

going to give us with a top line number. But in the end, it doesn't matter because McCarthy has

been doing all of this and they're still voting no. And it's really interesting. Everyone has

different opinions about what McCarthy should do, whether he should ignore these guys and start

having a conversation with Jeffries. Maybe that's already happening and it's just not out there yet.

Or if he should, you know, take this and I might get a little too nitty gritty here. So

just bear with me. But there is a separate deal that's being negotiated right now by a group

called the Problem Solvers Caucus that way. Yeah, sorry, I'm getting a little ahead. I don't know.

That's great living and breathing for the past couple of days. But they both did and endorsed

a deal late last night, 11 p.m. that would not deal with funding the government. And it's about

60 members, 30, about 30 Republicans, 30 Democrats. And they think this is the way to do it.

It's a bipartisan deal. But McCarthy has not answered questions on this issue yet.

And it's unclear whether this will get any sort of traction right now, considering McCarthy is still

trying to get a stopgap bill passed, allegedly by Saturday. Nothing has changed yet in terms of

vote timing at this moment. But it's it's a mess. I mean, it's chaos. And you talk to Republicans

about this and they say it's dysfunction. You talked to Democrats about this and they say

it's dysfunction. It's it's what's happening in the House right now is quite quite a mess.

From from where I sit, it seems like they just want to politically damage Kevin McCarthy and

maybe even oust him as speaker and that this is not necessarily about any specific funding

that there's five-ish Republicans, most of them in the House Freedom Caucus, that that will vote no

for ACR regardless of what is in it, regardless of what it looks like. A lot of them say they

want appropriations bill. The time is right out. That's not going to happen before September 30th

to fund the government for the year. And, you know, something to know and we've reported at Politico

various times is a lot of these guys are actually eyeing political futures and other roles.

You know, Dan Bishop eyeing a attorney general run. I'm thinking of Matt Gaetz, who's floating

a potential run as governor in Florida. These are people that have ambitions elsewhere. And that is

a lot of the argument I'm hearing, even from Republicans, for why. And I want to be clear of

Republicans that are aligned with McCarthy who are speaking about this. McCarthy doesn't really

talk about this with us, but but that say that this is just they're not going to switch. This

is not going to change. And there's no way to get them to yes. And this is going to be, you know,

right. Like, there's just there's no world where a McCarthy house passes a bill that only has

Republicans on it that gets signed by Joe Biden. Right. So at some point, whether it's now or

whether it's when the bill comes back from the Senate and a shutdown lasts for, I don't know,

20 days, 30 days, four months, at some point, Kevin McCarthy is going to have to talk to Hakeem

Jeffries, and figure out how to get a bill out of the house that is bipartisan. So at that point,

like, how threatened is McCarthy's job, right? Because like, I could see Matt Gaetz filing a

motion to vacate. But then what happens after that? Or like, they could, they're just going

to keep voting and voting and voting until they get another speaker. Like, what's the long?

moment by moment here by McCarthy himself. I don't know if he's really got a strategy beyond

what's ahead of him, even in in the hour that's coming. He is currently trying to keep his gavel.

That is why he hasn't turned to Hakeem Jeffries yet. That is why he's not talking to McConnell

or Schumer about what a deal could look like with the Senate in the house. That's why

that's why he's still trying to win over these Republicans like Matt Gaetz, who would

threaten to motion to vacate him. So to oust him as speaker, it only takes one

to start that process. And so I think what we're witnessing is him trying to figure out what will

work for him long term so that he can keep his gavel. But in the end, it's it's going to be

threatened anyway. If he goes, say, let's let's play a scenario. Say the House passes a Republican

led continuing resolution to fund the government for a month. It goes back to the Senate. The

Senate adds all these other measures that they want that they can get a majority on.

It has to come back to the House. Then the House passes it with a simple majority with

Democratic votes at this point, because that's what's going to end up happening

with whatever happens in the Senate. McCarthy will be threatened regardless.

So I think right now we're witnessing him try to figure out how to prevent that backlash that

could happen in the future. And I think the way he can do that is by trying to pass a Republican

led stopgap measure that has everyone supportive and then he can kind of throw up his hands and

be like, well, now we have to follow the process and now I can get Democratic votes to support

this. We've seen this happen before, and it seems like that's what's going to happen again.

Whether that'll work for him, though, that is the question.

open to pass a continuing resolution or funding bill that is to the Democrats liking, but in

return, some Democrats say we will protect you if there's a motion to vacate?

maybe that could change the circumstances. I've talked to so many Democrats that are

really entertained by what's happening right now on the House side. They think this is politically,

yes, yes. They think this is very politically good for Democrats ahead of 2024. They think it's a

good move right now to kind of watch. And I'm putting it in their words. I've spoke to dozens

upon dozens of Democrats just did, as a lot of them were laughing about what was happening on

the House floor just an hour ago. But they think it's funny to watch McCarthy flail because this

is a future campaign ad. This is a moment for them to win back the House. They can show that they're

the party of order under Democrats, and they can prove that they passed all this major legislation

when they had all three, they had the House, the Senate, they had the presidency. They can show

that they are efficient. And by watching McCarthy not even be able to get his party united on one

thing, I think a lot of them are privately and some publicly, maybe not the ones in vulnerable

seats, but really enjoying what they're witnessing with McCarthy having a really hard time keeping his

right now. But if a shutdown happens and it drags on for a while, then you know, you could see that

you could see the politics changing after a while because a lot of folks who aren't following this