The Bongino Brief - The Four Party System

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Welcome to the Bongino Brief.

I'm Dan Bongino.

So you may say, Dan, you seem awfully excited.

I'm not.

I'm just like, I'm excited to do this show

because I need to tamp down all the hysteria.

Here's how quickly things change in a news cycle.

You realize, like, just what was it?

Three weeks ago, four weeks ago, guys?

We flipped a Southern Republican,

a Southern governor's seat to Republican,

and everybody was like, wow, this is great news.

We're taking all these seats back.

You don't even remember.

Anyone in the chat remember what it was?

We won back the Louisiana governor's seat

just, what, a month ago?

And everybody was all excited three weeks ago.

We took it back from a Democrat.

Everybody was stoked.

And now, last night, we won one of them,

Mississippi, which, you know, it was an incumbent,

so no big surprise.

Tate Reeves, the Republican, won reelection.

And we lost Kentucky.

But we pretty much swept every other race in Kentucky.

Even though Andy Beshear's a communist, he's a good liar.

And the Democrat won in Kentucky.

So two out of three, we got one flip, one hold,

and one hold for the Democrats.

So was it a great night?

No, we would have won all three.

In a perfect world, we win Kentucky,

we win Mississippi, and we win Louisiana.

Granted, 100%.

That's why it was not a good night, period.

However, two out of three, is it a catastrophe?

I'm not so sure that's the case.

Now, a lot of states did not work out that great for us.

Virginia, but even Virginia,

like the drama out of Virginia is ridiculous.

You realize we won every single seat in Virginia

that Biden won by nine or up to nine points?

Think about that.

Biden won some of the seats we won in Virginia

by seven, eight, nine points, and we flipped them.

There was a redistricting of Virginia.

This is conveniently left out

of just about every conversation.

All right, so we're gonna lose a few House seats

and maybe pick up one in the Senate.

Like, oh my gosh, it was a catastrophe.

It was a total wipeout of Virginia.

Everybody jump off the bridge, get the cyanide pills.

Did you even follow what's happening?

Joe, you and I know Virginia pretty well, correct?

Sorry, I didn't even get to the Joe today.

Welcome, Joe.

Oh, welcome, Dan.

Today, I'm just like.

You know what?

Do you have a bell?

Let's do the bell.

Yeah, I got a bell here somewhere, dude.

It's wonderful Wacky Wednesday, no matter what happens.

you've been six minutes delayed,

I'm gonna get to the Virginia stuff

in some more detail in a second,

but again, there was a redistricting.

It was not a catastrophe, and I want you to keep in mind,

although I am an avid, obviously an open Trump supporter,

I respect a lot of these other candidates for running,

and I'm glad Glenn Youngkin won in Virginia.

There are a lot of people that don't like Glenn Youngkin.

A lot of the other candidates in the Republican field

see Glenn Youngkin as a threat.

You understand that?

So the narrative out there

that Glenn Youngkin destroyed Virginia last night

is a narrative the Democrats want,

but some Republicans want too, but it's not true

because they don't want Youngkin to jump in the race,

but it's not true what happened.

More in a minute, but first,

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If you want to hear it,

I mean, I love listening to you guys in the chat,

but we got to learn to like analyze data.

Not you.

Again, I don't want to sound condescending.

I'm talking to the other maniacs out there.

Twitter, total meltdown.

Let's get to some of the takeaways

about what happened last night.

This is the most important one.

No, there are two, Dan.

Trust me, there are four, not two, four.

and these electorates have the opposite problem.

Folks, write down what I'm about to tell you

and highlight this and, Guy, make this a clip

The Democrats and the Republicans are split

and they both have the opposite problem.

The Democrats have a Joe Biden problem

and not a brand problem.

This is why I would not take any of what happened last night

and transplant it to 2024.

Could we get smoked in 2024?

We could.

After what happened in the midterms,

I don't get excited about anything

and I'll tell you why when I get to the GOP.

I vote, I advocate, I tell you to go out and vote.

I did it yesterday.

It's all I can do.

The Democrats have a Biden problem.

In other words, a top of the ticket problem

but not a brand problem.

How do I know that?

Because Democrats turned out heavy in Kentucky, Virginia,

even Mississippi, all over the country.

They turned out in Indiana.

They turned out in Ohio.

Democrats turned up everywhere

because the Democrat brand is shockingly still safe.

Now, that's gonna tie into my second takeaway

about it not being bad enough yet.

That's why the Democrat brand is still safe.

It's just not bad enough yet.

We saved the Democrats from their own brand

but I'll get to that coming up in a second.

Hold that thought.

However, they are two parties right now, the Democrats.

They're the national Democrats

which still unbelievably, despite inflation,

the border, wars, chaos, public safety crises everywhere,

the Democrats brand is shockingly still relatively solid.

How?

It's just not bad enough yet.

However, party number two in the Democrat party

is the Biden wing.

The Biden wing is incredibly weak.

It's probably right now realistically

no more than 35% of Democrats.

Nobody likes Joe Biden.

That explains the disparity in the polls.

How you can see a New York Times Siena poll

with Donald Trump absolutely destroying Biden

in any swing state, yet the Democrats still doing okay.

Now, other people in the primary will say,

well, that's an argument to get rid of Trump

because if it was anyone other than Biden, they won't win.

You haven't heard my second part yet.

You haven't heard my second part yet.

So stand fast.

There are two electorates in two parties,

a Biden electorate and the Democrats,

and they are not the same thing anymore.

A large chunk of Democrats who are loyal to the brand

are not gonna vote for Biden.

Now let's get to the Republican side.

There are two parties on the Republican side.

That is now obvious, and they have the opposite problem.

The energy in the Republican Party right now,

whether you love him or hate him, is behind Donald Trump.

He's up by 30, 40, 50 points in the primary states

for the thousandth time.

I got into it again with another candidate,

a supporter last night, just lying about everything.

I am not against any of these other guys.

I love primaries.

Some of them are great conservatives, fantastic.

That's not my point.

The point is, it's not resonating.

If it was, you would see it in the polls.

Could there be an upset?

There could.

If Ron DeSantis wins Iowa, it could shake a lot of things up.

However, it's not materializing in the polls right now.

Does that mean it's permanent?

No.

Does that mean right now the polls are showing

there's a Donald Trump Party and a Republican Party?

Yes.

But you see how they have the opposite problem?

Whereas Biden is a drag on turnout for the Democrats

whose brand is strong, the GOP brand is weak,

especially after the Jim Jordan shenanigans.

No one wants to vote for the GOP.

And the only people who are in the GOP

with any passion right now are people voting for Trump.

Well, DeSantis people are passionate too.

I'm not knocking them.

But what I'm getting at is the majority of the party,

because Trump's way ahead in the primary, are with Trump.

They don't really care about the Republican Party.

I'm not telling you that's right.

I'm not telling you it's wrong.

I'm telling you what is.

This is the reality show.

You want the show, you can listen to other people.

You know what I'm saying is true.

The GOP has a brand problem,

not a headliner problem with Trump.

And the Democrats have a headliner problem

and not a brand problem.

It's the exact opposite problem.

There are four parties right now.

That is so obvious after last night.

It's so, and I can prove it to you.

I'll prove it to you again.

You'll say, no way, Dan.

That's not possible.

Dan Cameron in Kentucky.

Listen, again, I'm not knocking a guy.

Dan Cameron, I think was a fine candidate.

The Republican for governor.

A lot of people are doing,

oh, Dan Cameron was Trump endorsed.

Yeah, he was also Mitch McConnell endorsed.

Mitch McConnell is the GOP brand, which is not popular.

Not making excuses, what I just told you were facts.

You can look it up.

And Glenn Youngkin, let's be honest.

He's done a great job in Virginia.

I like him a lot.

A lot, a lot.

I think they did okay last night.

Glenn Youngkin's career isn't over.

He could run for Senate, likely win.

He's at 58% approval.

But Glenn Youngkin was not a huge Trump guy.

Is that an understatement, fellas, or what?

Definitely not a Trump guy.

Not that the Trump guy thing

would have turned out any different last night,

but it's clear a lot of Trump people are like,

eh, I'm gonna stick with my guy.

I'm not telling you what's right.

I'm telling you what is.

That's takeaway number one.

There are four parties right now.

Two electorates in each,

and they both have the opposite problem.

The second issue, folks, in large swaths of the country,

man, it's simply not bad enough yet.

It's just not.

How many times do I have to say this?

I was so glad on Twitter last night,

in between Twitter battles last night

with fake tough guys and everything else.

I'm sitting there last night, and I'm all over,

and people are like, it's the end of the world.

And a couple folks, thankfully,

you can go see it yourself,

chimed in and they were like,

Bongino was right, it's not bad enough yet.

I've only said it for the last two years.

Folks, there are pockets of the country

where because it's bad by you,

does not mean it's bad by them.

I'll give you the perfect example.

Connecticut last night was an absolute rout

for the Republican Party.

They got annihilated.

Connecticut, Connecticut.

Why?

Folks, Connecticut still has pockets of money

from people who left New York.

It's not in great condition,

but it's not in absolutely awful condition.

And the Democrat brand,

because they love killing babies and stuff,

is still strong.

Folks, it was a wipeout.

So many towns lost Republican leadership,

county executive stuff.

It was a mess in Connecticut.

But where it is bad enough,

the exact opposite happened.

Look what happened in New York.

Let's go to the Lee Zeldin tweet.

You can skip the John Solomon article.

I was gonna put that in there, but you get it.

It says what I just told you.

Here's Lee Zeldin, who, by the way,

I think should run for RNC chair at this point.

Almost took out the Democrat governor in New York

in one of the deepest of blue states.

Lee Zeldin used to be the congressman

in Suffolk County, New York.

Now, in case you think,

oh, why do I give a shit about Suffolk County, New York?

Ladies and gentlemen, I used to live there.

I know a whole lot about Suffolk County, New York.

I don't know if you know this,

but I was born in Queens,

lived in Suffolk County till I was nine,

and my father lived there most of his adult life

until he moved to North Carolina.

Suffolk County is what I would call the seventh borough.

New York City has five boroughs,

and then right next to it is Nassau County, which is huge,

and then Suffolk County, which is also huge.

Montauk, the Hamptons.

Suffolk County, New York just elected

its first Republican county executive in 20 years.

Ladies and gentlemen, the guy won by 15 points.

Long Island, New York, which used to be Republican

when I was growing up 20 years ago

and won dramatically Democrat,

is now run almost completely by Republicans.

New York Post, GOP takes control of Long Island

with landslide victory in Suffolk County executive race.

The GOP now occupies all the county-wide seats

in Nassau and Suffolk counties,

the county executive seats, the DA's office,

the comptroller's office, and all four congressional seats.

Folks, I know this area.

I worked there.

This was my Secret Service office in Melville.

The Democrats dominated Long Island for years.

There's not a Democrat left standing on Long Island.

So again, before you like jumping off a bridge,

oh my gosh, it was such a disaster.

We lost the Kentucky governor's race.

Yeah, we also swept every other down-ballot race

by near double digits, if not more, double digits.

Well, you can't get more than double digits,

but I meant like more than 10.

We crushed them.

Here's another one.

Tweet from a CUNY, City University of New York professor.

Fascinating race for the New York City Council

in District 13, in the boogie-down Bronx.

I know the Bronx well too.

You know why?

That's where Paula grew up.

Crime was front and center on the ballot.

Sounds like it's bad enough.

Well, what happened?

A Republican challenger, Christie Marmorado,

defeated Marjorie Velasquez, the Democrat.

If successful, which she was, by the way,

the GOP will have flipped the seat on the council.

Ladies and gentlemen, this District 13 in the Bronx

voted for Biden by 27 points.

I'm asking you what you're upset about last night.

It would have been nice to take back

the Virginia State Senate.

It would have been great to hold the House.

We should have won Kentucky.

Andy Beshear's a communist, he's just a good actor.

But folks, it wasn't a wipeout across the country.

Where it was bad enough, things changed.

It eventually will get bad enough.

Will it get bad enough by 2024?

Will everything will flip around

and Trump will be on the ballot,

which will bring out Trump voters

who don't wanna show up for other candidates?

I wish they would.

I don't know.

But I'm gonna give you a quick story here

Joe, you know well.

I can't stand them.

I revile them.

I can't stand them.

but he is a Republican, Larry Hogan,

win the governorship in deep blue Maryland twice.

I know, neither me nor Joe like Larry Hogan.

You think the Democrats gave up?

Nope, the Democrats ran Wes Moore,

who's a total scammer,

Give up.

Last night was not a bloodbath.

A month ago was a good night.

The Democrats love to kill babies.

See, I ain't doing that.

I ain't doing that.

But it's getting there.

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