Will Joe Biden be impeached?
2023-09-15 00:26:59
Every Friday, Guardian columnist and former Washington correspondent, Jonathan Freedland, invites experts to help analyse the latest in American politics. From politicians to journalists covering the White House and beyond, Jonathan and his guests give listeners behind the scenes access to how the American political machine works.
This is The Guardian.
Kevin McCarthy had six weeks to figure out a way to broker a deal with his fellow Republicans that would keep the government open for business. So what did he come up with?
Speaker Kevin McCarthy is now launching an impeachment inquiry into President Biden.
Despite the apparent lack of any hard evidence that President Biden profited from the business dealings of his son Hunter. Back when Joe Biden was vice president, speaker of the House, McCarthy decided to take a risk in order to keep some Republicans happy. And the Democrats, well. Some of them, like Democratic senator from Pennsylvania John Fetterman, don't seem too worried. It's devastating.
Oh, don't do it, please, don't do it. Oh no.
So, will Joe Biden be impeached? Is this, as many suspect, just an act of political revenge on behalf of Donald Trump? Could all of this eventually end up backfiring on McCarthy and the Republicans? I'm Jonathan Friedland, columnist at The Guardian, and this is Politics Weekly America.
Oh yeah, you know, we just thought we'd be sitting back. No big news upon the House's return this week.
Mariana Sotomayor is a congressional reporter for The Washington Post the last time she and I spoke back in June. Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy had managed to put aside their differences to negotiate a bill that averted a crisis and suspended the nation's debt limit.
No one got everything they wanted, but the American people got what they needed. We averted an economic crisis, an economic collapse.
What a difference a few months make.
I think that chumminess lasted maybe a couple of days because the week after that they had passed. That debt ceiling averted a not just domestic, but potentially global catastrophe. Those hard right Republicans told McCarthy Wait, this deal that you negotiated is no good, does not hold up to the promises you made to try and cut spending significantly. Oh, and you relied on Democrats to get that done. That is not something that we're having and that still haunts McCarthy today.
And that is why we are already hearing from many Republicans, different parts of their conference, that they're going to be putting McCarthy on notice in different ways.
Yeah, so the most obvious manifestation, perhaps, of this sheer pressure that is on him. Kevin McCarthy came with the announcement he made on Tuesday, which made obviously a lot of news. What exactly did Kevin McCarthy announce on Tuesday?
You know, this was the first time that we had seen McCarthy in the Capitol.
Welcome back everyone.
Tuesday's when they came back, and the first message he had, with only days to go to fund the government was.
You know the months that we were gone. In the weeks, House Republicans have uncovered serious and credible allegations into President Biden's conduct.
I am launching an impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden.
This logical next step will give our committees the full power to gather all the facts and answers for the American public.
And this was about face. We knew that, you know, there was a lot of pressure from that hard right flank within the conference to impeach Biden. Some people want to impeach Biden tomorrow. These votes would have been inevitable. However, McCarthy unilaterally decided that he would launch this impeachment inquiry.
No votes involved, and that was a really big difference. Because Speaker Nancy Pelosi, when she first wanted to go forth and impeach former President Donald Trump, she did this unilaterally. And McCarthy publicly, time and time again, condemned her for doing this. Saying that the Speakership has no power to just be able to rob all lawmakers from voting on such an important issue.
Our job is to legislate, not to continue to investigate something in the back when you cannot find any reason to impeach this president.
And then he just does it himself, and a big reason why he did it was because he just didn't have the support from many, not just moderate Republicans. We always expect them to break on issues like this. But also conservatives within the conference, who just haven't seen any evidence yet from a number of committees who have been investigating. Hunter Biden, the president's son. And they fear that, first of all, going on the record and voting, they don't want their name attached to an impeachment. Anything yet. Doing that would have potentially hurt them politically.
But they also worry that just green lighting. This means that they eventually will have to take a vote on impeachment. That's different than impeachment inquiry votes, and that just allows them to continue investigating that impeachment vote whenever it happens. I mean, unless there's some evidence which we have not seen, it's really going to splinter the party.
There are, I think it's 18 Republicans in the House who represent districts that were won by Joe Biden in 2020.
In other words, these are blue districts, where it's high risk. If you're a Republican who got elected in that district to vote to impeach the president, your own constituents voted for. And so those are going to be some of those Republicans very nervous about this. But in terms of why he did it, this was a demand from those people whose votes Kevin McCarthy needs in order to keep the government open. And so this is a kind of, I mean, people have been comparing it to, like, you know, hostage talks with a hostage negotiator, Kevin McCarthy, as kind of the hostage.
And he's in these ransom negotiations. And their demand is, if you want the government not to shut down at 1159 on September the 30th. Then what you've got to do is give us the red meat we've been demanding on impeachment. Is that how it's working? That he's essentially having to sort of give in to the demands of the so-called Freedom Caucus, this right wing group within the Republican Congressional Party.
That is exactly it, and there are many more demands that the Freedom Caucus is making of McCarthy. This is just one of them. What we had heard from leadership actually was that. When they were working the phones right before they came back from Washington, they realized there were about five or six Republicans. They were demanding an impeachment inquiry into Biden in exchange for them voting for government funding.
He can only lose four Republican votes to pass anything through their very, very slim Republican majority.
I mean, some people do point out that he hasn't exactly, you know, formally set the legal dogs on Joe Biden. All he said really is that the committees, which have been investigating and looking as it were for dirt on Joe and Hunter Biden, that they can continue their work. And therefore, procedurally as it were, he's not really changed that much, it's more politically, he's given them a bit of a green light from the top. If that is right, will that be enough to satisfy those who do hunger for red meat on the right of his party?
So, yes and no. My colleague, who focuses on congressional investigations, has surveyed a significant amount of Republicans, and it breaks down in different ways where the support is for this. So, of course, there are far right members like congressman Matt Gaetz and congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who have been calling to impeach Biden immediately since. I think Biden was sworn in as president, and Gaetz is someone who. Also on Tuesday, McCarthy made his remarks. Gaetz went to the floor and said, I rise today to serve notice.
Mr. Speaker, you are out of compliance with the agreement that allowed you to assume this.
Role.
These are my red lines. And if McCarthy doesn't meet a number of these, including being able to actually impeach Biden at a certain point, then I'm going to try and vote him out. Because one person has the power to set a vote to vote McCarthy out of the speakership, so that is, the far right flank definitely wants to see further and faster movement.
We'll get into the exact substance of the charges that they want to level against Joe Biden, and also how the process is going to run. But just on the politics for a moment. There were some Democrats who were actually pleased when Kevin McCarthy made this announcement on Tuesday, saying This is almost the best news Biden's had in a while. Because they look at the past and they noticed that back in the day. Bill Clinton's electoral and political prospects were boosted when he was impeached in 1998. Democrats rallied around him, and also even Donald Trump. His highest ever poll rating was the week before his first impeachment. It tends to rally the party base around their leader.
Do you think this could boost support for Joe Biden and actually help him through what is otherwise quite a politically sticky patch?
I think so. And Democrats need an excuse for their own voters to get excited for Biden. We have seen his poll numbers on approval rating down significantly over the last couple of months. A lot of people are skeptical about whether he can even serve as president for years, just given his age. Those are the kind of questions that a lot of voters have right now around Biden.
And as we saw in the midterms, for example, Democrats did turn out they were motivated on the issue of abortion. But even Democrats and Democratic strategists say, man, if we just had a little bit more Democrats turning out to vote, feeling enthused, like maybe the House wouldn't have flipped. For example, so Democrats will be pointing out, OK, Republicans. You're investigating Biden on something his son did, and there's no connection so far. Well, let's remember all of the things that Trump did and how he tried to weaponize the Department of Justice. So there's a lot of room to compare.
And I think Democrats have a lot to work with here.
They do, I mean, it is a really interesting commentary on how in American politics now, and it wasn't always the case. But there is almost no bigger boost than being somehow a victim. And Donald Trump has proved that by saying seeing his own poll numbers go up each time. He says I'm the victim of a deep state Justice Department that's out to get me. Well, now, Democrats will have a turn and say, Joe Biden, innocent man, is the victim of Republicans, kind of drunk on power in the House and so on.
But let's just get to ourselves to this charge, because you've mentioned it is about sort of family, you know, business links and so on. What is it exactly that the Republicans alleged Joe Biden did? That would count as, and remember, this is the legal standard, a high crime and misdemeanor, that's what you have to have committed to be impeached. What are the high crimes and misdemeanors they believe Joe Biden has committed here?
So a lot of the focus has been on Hunter Biden because they're trying to connect again the president's son to the president. At least what Biden was doing while he was vice president.
Eyewitnesses have testified that the president joined on multiple phone calls and had multiple interactions. Dinners resulted in cars and millions of dollars into his son's and his son's business partners.
And it was during that time, and this is true, that Hunter Biden was doing foreign business in Ukraine, had other businesses or business ties. I should say, with China. And would use the Biden family name. And also say similarly, you know, like, Well, my dad is vice president and using that. And that's actually something that we have heard from his own business partners. At the time, Republicans say, Oh my gosh. That means that Biden did benefit from a number of decisions, did make decisions on foreign policy based on his son's interests.
These are allegations of abuse of power, obstruction and corruption, and they warrant further investigation by the House of Representatives.
There's still not enough evidence. What Republicans are saying is, you know, there's also been a lot of money wire transfers, and the Bidens have benefited from a lot of foreign businesses. But again, we have not seen the receipts, they have not publicized. You know what specifically they're talking about? McCarthy's been saying, Oh well, you know, Hunter Biden bought a Porsche.
And we're like, OK, does that really matter? Where does that fit into this? So, you know, we're skeptical by nature as reporters. But when you are hearing conservatives, and again, these are not moderate Republicans within the conference, this is pretty mainstream. Republicans saying. I don't think this right now, what we've heard and seen reaches that threshold of high crime and misdemeanors.
That's a bit of an issue. And even a number of those on the committees investigating are briefing their own colleagues with that evidence. And so far, we will see if that changes any minds. But it hasn't yet.
Let's just talk about how this will play out exactly. People will remember, as I said, what used to be a very rare process has become really, quite familiar. Bill Clinton, 20 odd years ago. But Donald Trump twice impeached first for seeking dirt on his opponents. In fact, particularly Joe Biden in Ukraine, and more or less leaning on Volodymyr Zelensky, saying, You know, if you want to get the money that's been promised to you, you need to give me dirt on. Joe Biden. And then impeached a second time for his role in inciting the deadly attack on Capitol Hill on the 6th of January 2021..
You are the ones interfering in America's elections, you are the ones subverting America's democracy. We did nothing wrong, nothing whatsoever. This was just an excuse.
Obviously, a reminder that, you know, being impeached is not enough to remove you from office. There has to be a conviction in the Senate, where a trial is staged. And two thirds of the 100 members of the Senate have to vote to remove you from office. And that has never happened. How will this compare to the processes that people around the world saw twice in the Donald Trump case? Will there be public hearings?
Who's in charge? You know, how's this going to? what shape is this going to take?
Yeah, so if we do get to the point where the House, you know, votes to impeach, there definitely will be those public hearings. But we're just not there yet, right? A lot of people want this impeachment inquiry to go for some time.
I think the difference between then and now is that question of, you know, the House being able to vote on an impeachment inquiry. Historically, that had always been the case. If the House votes to impeach, then. Everything else that we have seen in the past, in terms of a public hearing and then the Senate voting to convict, we would see that.
Yeah, and there is this view that based on the thinness of the evidence which you've been referring to, that actually, Kevin McCarthy knows, and he's banking on the idea that they won't find devastating evidence. And it will sort of run out of road and probably won't ever get to that vote, which, for reasons, you know, you've been explaining, is so politically perilous anyway for Republicans. And so he's actually almost betting on this being a pretty threadbare case against Joe Biden, one man who's been pushing for it. You've mentioned all the people who might have front of House roles. But behind the scenes, a person pushing for this is the person who knows what it's like. Twice impeached former President Donald Trump on his social network.
Last month, he posted a message that said Lots of capital letters either impeach the bum or fade into oblivion. They did it to us. I mean, pretty blatantly admitting. He always says the quiet part out loud that this is really not about evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors by Joe Biden, but rather about revenge.
Absolutely, I mean, Trump's motto, since he was a young businessman, has always been about revenge. A number of things that we've seen, like him, continuing to sue, has been something that he learned in his early years in New York. So it is not entirely surprising. And that's also what's motivating a lot of his allies in the House.
For example, Marjorie Taylor Greene introduced articles of impeachment of Joe Biden the first day of this Congress. It is with the highest amount of solemnity that I announce my intention to introduce articles of impeachment today. On the head of this America, at last, executive branch that has been working since January 20th, 2021 to systematically destroy this country. And I believe she did it during the last Congress as well. So so, without having seen any evidence, without even, you know, anything coming out. They're like, we need to take them out, and this is what Trump wants us to do.
And this is what Trump wants to support. But there are, as much as we, you know, hear from Greene, hear from a number of these far right lawmakers. Way more often. There still are Republican constitutionalists in the House who really want to see that threshold met of the high crimes and misdemeanors.
Kevin McCarthy's job, obviously, is to try and balance against all these different factions and keep everyone on board. Do you think he has done enough in terms of where we started with this conversation, which is about avoiding that government shutdown? Has he done enough to placate the Marjorie Taylor Greene's or the Matt Gaetz's of this world with this move? For them to give him what he needs, which is the votes, to keep the government open.
So there were rumors before Republicans came back that McCarthy was going to dangle an impeachment inquiry vote as an exchange for support for government funding. And a number of members of the Freedom Caucus were saying, I see what you're trying to do here. These are two completely different issues. So McCarthy actually cannot use the impeachment inquiry as a chip anymore. What he can say is, Hey, if you shut down the government, that means all investigations, all committee work stops until we are able to fund it again.
Meanwhile, the Senate is working in a bipartisan manner, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell both saying, Oh. Biden is asking for all this money to fund and help Ukraine, and also all this money for disaster relief for a number of climate related disasters we've seen here in the U.S. OK, let's give it to him. Meanwhile, the House. There's just so many different demands for McCarthy that even he is not commenting on government funding, he would much rather talk about impeachment.
I have seen so many Republican lawmakers in disbelief as to not knowing how they're going to fund the government. How they're going to fund the government for the year, and if the government shuts down, how to reopen the government.
So, Mariana, no one likes being put on the spot for predictions. But let me ask you two things about the future first, your instinct. Is there going to be a vote by the House of Representatives that will result in the impeachment of Joe Biden?
Possibly, and I say that because a number of lawmakers realize that just being able to have an impeachment inquiry means you are starting the road to an impeachment vote. How that vote looks like when it happens, it's a little bit unclear because, of course, it's 2024 soon, a lot of Republicans could be saying by next year. Oh well, you know, just let the voters is something we often hear, just let the voters decide whether it should be Biden again.
Don't make us vote for it. It should be in the voters hands so we could see a change in tone here too, before there even is an impeachment vote.
Yeah, but as you say, sometimes just starting on the road there is. These things have their own momentum, and these things could go, even if initially a lot of skepticism around it. But the second thing I was going to ask you about the future is this observation about how what was once so rare, the risk that it becomes routine. Do you think this is now going to happen with every presidency that you get a president of one party, and if the House is of the other party? They almost feel obliged, as they did with, you know, they'll say, we did it with Biden.
We did it with Trump, we did it with Clinton, and impeachment will become an absolute routine part of American politics.
It is absolutely a fear I hear from people all the time. And I think that's a little bit of. The skepticism, too from Republicans is. We can't just impeach him if if there is no evidence to do so. We can't just keep going down this road. And we have seen this House Republican majority do a lot of tit for tat. Well, if Pelosi did it, then we can do it too.
It should be something that rarely happens, and the fact that we're already seeing it happen. Exactly to your point, when the majority party is different from the president's party. I mean, I would not. I would not be surprised if this continues to be a trend, which is pretty sad. It's not what the founding fathers intended to be used as.
And, you know, because you've been with us before that, we do like to ask our guests a what else? question, something different. This one is a little bit related. It relates to Senator Mitt Romney of Utah. People remember, I think, the only Republican senator to vote for any of the articles of impeachment against Donald Trump in that second impeachment over 6th of January.
He announced this week that he plans to retire. He says he's 76 years old. And he said it's time for a new generation to step up and shape the world they're going to live in. He also said that he didn't think that given his second term. If he got another six year term, he would end in his 80s, that he could be as effective as he has been in his first term.
It would be a great thing if both President Biden and former President Trump were to stand aside and let their respective party pick someone in the next generation. President Trump, Excuse me, President Biden, when he was running, said he was a transitional figure to the next generation. Well, time to transition.
I mean, given all the attention there is at the moment about age and American politics, with Mitch McConnell kind of freezing on camera a couple of times, he's over 80.
Obviously Joe Biden, of course, over 80 81, later this autumn, Donald Trump, just three or four years younger. You know, Mitt Romney is sort of taking a stand, saying you can be too old for politics. Do you think it will have much impact?
I don't know if it will influence other people's decisions. Because a lot of these lawmakers who are seeking reelection again, they're pretty stubborn, they want to stay where they are. So it is different to see a lawmaker kind of step back, internalize and say, I don't want this life. I would like to just sit back. And, you know, he has a very big family.
The family has always played a role in his decision makings, whether he would run for president again, and whether he would run for Senate, for example. So I wouldn't be surprised if that was a calculus. And maybe he, too, just wants to spend time with his grandkids. And he kind of hinted at, you know, what would be more fruitful for him? And he did choose retiring because he is a Republican of a different era.
He is someone who obviously has time and time again gone against the party line. And while there is still room for that in the Senate, as we've seen in the House, those people just get persecuted all the time. I would never want to be in their position because, yeah, at some point you do kind of get run out and those people decide, you know, it's not worth me being up here. Sure, I can have political influence, but you know, what's the point if my party's voting a different way, if my vote doesn't necessarily matter? And it is worth pointing out, he did say he thinks he could still win re-election had he sought to do so.
He does have high support in Utah. But again, it just came down. I think to him, that fundamental question of age, where does he want to see himself over the next six years?
Mariana Sotomayor, congressional reporter for The Washington Post Thanks so much for talking to me for Politics Weekly America.
Of course, always happy to join you all.
And that is all from me for this week now. As well as it being a big week in U.S politics, it is also London Fashion Week. And our sister podcast, Pop Culture with Shontay Joseph is back to cover everything that's been happening. Between animal rights protests on the runways and supermodel Naomi Campbell's controversial collaboration with the fast fashion giant Pretty Little Thing, Shontay explores whether sustainability can actually have a future in fashion.
There'll be new episodes every Thursday, so do make sure to search for pop culture with Shontay Joseph wherever you get your podcasts. But for now, it's goodbye. The producers were Danielle Stevens and Estelle Uber, and the executive producer this week is Max Sanderson. I'm Jonathan Friedland. Thanks as always for listening.
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