Iowa Caucus Countdown with Steve Kornacki

Tommy, you're actually on the ground in Iowa right now, doing some reporting for a special mini series that is going to air on this feed next week. Tell us what it's been like in Iowa and what you're working on.

We're doing a smaller version of that this year, where we're digging into the Republican caucuses we're talking about. Frankly, like, what are we all doing here? It's kind of the question, is there really a race? Does Iowa really matter this year?

Is Trump running away with it? So went to a bunch of events yesterday, we saw Vivek, we saw Desantis.

We're going to try to see Trump. And those episodes will start to appear in the pod Save America feed on January 10th, so check them out.

That's right. The Iowa caucuses are less than two weeks away. According to the 538 average of Iowa polls, Trump is above 50 and leading his rivals by more than 30 points. Tommy, you are a man on the ground in Iowa, you are in Des Moines right now.

We went to one of his events. This man has been shot out of a cannon. So I'd love to tell you about everything we've been doing here.

He seems very nice, his staff seemed very nice. The event was so small that it was hard to be mean about it. But I think there were 20 people there and 15 of them were students from California on a class trip. So I don't think he's going to have a surprise upset, but we can get into more of that later.

Um, I think we actually have a clip of that that we could play for you guys.

I think what the media wants is is they want Republican candidates to just kind of, like, smear him personally and kind of do that.

He intends to caucus for him, he wants to vote for him in the general election because he doesn't think Trump can win. But as you heard there, DeSantis response to, like, I think a pretty fair observation or question was to get mad about it. Like it didn't seem, didn't go very well.

He said, What's your name? She said. I'm Gloria, I'm the one who prays for you. And his reaction was like, Well, good, and then he just like, plowed forward with whatever talking point he wanted to say.

He, he seems to step on his own applause lines all the time, like, he'll say some shitty thing about, you know, protecting women's sports or whatever. And the audience, unfortunately, gets into it and he just steps on them. The one sort of surprising hit was. DESantis criticized Trump for coming out in support of a new F.BI building in Washington, D.C. Which, um, people were surprisingly exercised about. But but nothing at that event made me think that there was some growing sense of momentum for Ron DeSantis.

Surprisingly, no surprise. But um, Trump won't credential us for events or let us into anything, we the Trump's people won't let us into a coffee with Eric Trump. It's a point.

Uh, we saw him in Des Moines, and then we saw him in Newton, Iowa, which, Dan, you remember? Newton, Iowa, was the place where there was a Maytag plant that got shut down. And it became kind of the poster child for talking about trade, policy and NAFTA and everything. So my takeaway was the Vake is far less obnoxious in the room with voters than he is on television or at debates. You know, he is energetic, but he's not combative, he is doing an unbelievable number of events.

So, uh, people always talk about doing the full Grassley. You remember this, Dan?

Like, he smiles, like a normal person, he says, Thank you when people compliment him, He's really nice to their kids, like.

I know all of that sounds very basic, but when you go from a Ron DeSantis event to a vake Rameswamy event, you notice the contrast. Uh, you really do. And so the Des Moines event was like a hundred people in the middle of the day. It was sort of, you know, not that interesting, but yeah, they let us, uh, jump on his tour bus from Des Moines to Newton, Iowa, and spend some time interviewing him.

He is like, on edge, he's very intense. I could tell he seemed annoyed, maybe that his staff had booked this because he said something like. I'm sure your podcast is listened to by lots of Iowa Caucus goers. I was like, Oh yeah, totally, and actually, he name checked me in the show at his Newton event.

And he was like, in front of the crowd and he's like, What's your? what's your? show? called again? It was like, Pod Save America, you guys should subscribe.

That was not my goal. I wanted to, like, understand the guy. It's hard to, like, shout at someone on their on their campaign bus with their kids there. My takeaway from the conversation and from watching him is that the Vicks team. They obviously want to get votes from traditional caucus goers, but they're also going after this demographic of people that just seem to distrust government. That are more in the like. RFK Jr. Joe Rogan, Infowars Worlds.

Um, and that's interesting strategically, because maybe those people aren't showing up in polls, but I don't know that. That's going to, you know, get you to 50 of the vote. The thing I was pressing him on there was. He keeps saying that January 6th, uh, was an inside job. He keeps saying they, uh, kind of scare. Quotes aren't going to let Trump or Biden get to the finish line. He's tweeting about Jeffrey Epstein. So I was just trying to get him to help me understand his worldview. Because all his events have backdrops that say the word truth on them.

And truth is different than anti-censorship, right? Like I you, if you want to have Alex Jones on your show, he had Alex Jones on his podcast, but they did. If you want to have that conversation, to make a point about not censoring anyone in freedom of speech, sure, that's fine, but Alex Jones is not someone who's known for speaking the truth. So I was trying to suss that out with him, but, uh, basically, he just talked over me whenever I pushed back.

That was a month ago. If he can bring in some of those sort of off the radar screen folks and turn them out and double that number and get 10, that could surprise people. That could give them a little bounce. The same is true for DeSantis. I think he had 19 in the register poll.

Trump is 51 in that poll. By the way, if he can cut that margin to like 50 30, maybe that helps. I mean, DeSantis is going hard in Iowa, too, he's gone to all 99 counties. Tell me what you think, Dan.

I mean, I think Haley seems to be more focused on New Hampshire, she's coming back to Iowa for a couple events. And this Americans for Prosperity PAC says that they're now going to rev up some ground game field operation for her for the last three weeks. But I'm I'm very skeptical that that will be effective.

And actually, multiple super pacs. There was an argument for trying to take out DeSantis in Iowa so she could be somehow beat DeSantis in Iowa. They're basically tied in the average, the 538 average, right now, and to come in second to Trump, that would be the expectations.

Give her some additional momentum going into New Hampshire. DESANTIS I don't really know what happens. Unless he somehow the in the polls are all wrong, or they have shifted dramatically since the Des Moines register poll right before the holidays. Um, and he is somehow north of 30. Trump has bled.

And when Desantis gains a voter, he's usually gaining it from Trump, not someone else, because he, he's the second choice of most Trump voters. So if somehow he gets it really close and just shocks the world by losing by 15 as opposed to 30, maybe that gives him something. He is a lot like, um, to use an analogy, that is a little, unfortunately, close to your heart. Which is, he's a little like John Edwards in 2004. Which is, even if he does well in Iowa, he doesn't have a next, he does not have a. He's not a strong, he's not strong in New Hampshire. So it's hard to get momentum out of Iowa. Go to a state where you're pretty weak and then maintain that momentum heading to the next state after that, because you have a week to drive in New Hampshire.

Then you have a month between New Hampshire and South Carolina, and that is so. If you do not have a if, you cannot get a second bounce out of New Hampshire, you can't. Really, very, no candidates ever really made it to South Carolina that way, right? Where you you fail in South Carolina, other than Joe Biden, is the is the exception to that rule.

Who got? No bounce out of Iowa, no bounce out of New Hampshire, maybe a little bounce out of the Nevada Caucus? And then, um, and then obviously won South Carolina and was the nominee, like 16 seconds later.

I mean, I've been on the ground for a couple of days. All this is like anecdotal information. But did we see some groundswell of support for DeSantis or Vivek? Absolutely not, and I'm with you. I mean, I think if DeSantis gets third or even fourth in Iowa. Like, everyone on his staff is going to tell him, you need to drop out. You need to endorse Trump, you need to preserve your political future such as it is.

I do think you're right that Haley has a path, a limited, not a likely one, but as a path, uh, both to do well in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Vivek said something to me like, You know, I'm sticking in this for the long haul. I mean, I do think it's a question of sort of what his goal is here. The taking him literally version of it is he thinks that there's some chance that Trump gets arrested, indicted, taken off the ballot. You know, he's literally saying these things, and maybe then he emerges.

The more cynical view of, you know, his future is. He has used this entire campaign as a way to build name, ID and a base of support in these conservative circles. Which could then vault him to some future job. Whether it's in the administration or being, you know, the next sort of conservative media darling Ben Shapiro type, who knows? But, you know, all of them are saying we need to just exceed expectations and then we'll take on Trump. But if Trump wins Iowa, he will have beat his performance in 2016 when he lost to Ted Cruz. And then he's got eight days to New Hampshire. So I'm as skeptical as you are that there's really time to catch up to him. Especially when you consider that the a lot of the Super Tuesday states had been tweaked so that if someone gets, you know, 50 or more of the vote, it's basically winner.

Take all, and Trump can just lock this thing up super fast.

You know, my fear is that we see some red states try to do the same thing to Biden, get him thrown off the ballot for some trumped up reasons. So, you know, look, look, a year ago, Dan? I probably would have thought that the indictments. An issue like this would be good fodder for all of these Republican opponents to Trump to make an electability argument against him. But so far, the opposite has has been the case, so we'll see what the Supreme Court does.

And so it's a you end up in all kinds of situations where his opponents are amplifying his message. It's an opportunity cost for his opponents because they're not talking about it now. None of them are deft enough to actually use this to their advantage by saying, using this as example of the chaos that surrounds Trump. That's an argument for maybe why he's not our best bet to actually beat Biden. Because they're just one dimensional checkers players. But once again, it's up in there in the long run. Uh, we're talking about two states, the Supreme Court's going to weigh in here.

Other states may do it. Um, but this isn't how, and I don't think anyone is making this argument. But this is not how we're going to beat Trump, right? It's not going to. Even even if it on on, it's like, I can't speak to the constitutionality of it. But if the simple question is people who engage in insurrection cannot run for president, well, guess what Donald Trump did, and guess what he's trying to do, you know, under that view of it. Yeah, he probably should not be on the ballot anywhere, and there are multiple reasons, ways in which he could have been stopped from being on the ballot. Dating back to Michigan, uh, the Republicans refusing to convict him at a second impeachment for engineering and insurrection. Um, but this is in terms of the general election. He's going to be. Maybe he does end up not on the Colorado ballot, maybe not on the main ballot, maybe another place.

In that, we'll probably have some consequences for the for down ballot Republicans there. Um, like, if I was a A like Lauren Boebert or some other Republican in Colorado, I'd be pretty nervous about my turnout without Trump on the ballot. But it's all sort of, I think. Small potatoes related politically, small potatoes related to the larger, uh, forces that are going to decide this election.

So yeah, I mean, I imagine this will just help him.

They'll try to prevent that from happening in any way they can. But I think until then, they're just going to message this. And try to win these sort of like day-to-day PR fights in any way possible. And if the easiest way to do that is from a courtroom, I guess so be it. Consider me as skeptical as you are, though, Dan, that he will ever testify.

I agree that on the margins, this is probably helpful in the primary, it will suck up attention, it'll do have that dynamic. We just talked about about his forcing discussion of these elite liberal forces trying to take down Trump because he's a threat to the system. Which is good for him in Republican politics, and maybe good for him. With even a larger swath of voters than we really would like to be, we would be comfortable with.

My take on Donald Trump's rise in the polls is that he is rising in 2024 for the exact opposite reasons. He rose in 2016, he rose in 2016. By dominating attention, everything was about Trump, he became our national monoculture.

You couldn't. He was on TV all the time, he was the topic of every conversation, it was, it was a pop culture conversation, it was a the dominant story. 2024? He's actually risen, in my view, because he's not the center of attention.

He's not on Twitter, he's not really on TV that much. There's a lot of TV coverage of Trump. Fewer people are paying attention to news, and they're not most people. People always think this is crazy when we say this, but most people have no idea that. Donald Trump is about a month from being the Republican nominee. Like that is going to blow away a large swath of Americans. And so he is deciding to highlight his greatest vulnerabilities.

Not the e gene. Carroll trial is an example of just what a disgusting human being he is. Um, but you know, talking about the January 6th case and all of those things. He's shining a light on his greatest general election vulnerability at the exact moment when voters are beginning to pay attention. And that could be a mistake in the long run, right?

I don't think Trump's not known as a long-term thinker, but I do think he is, uh, there is. There's real risk in what he's doing. Um, and for only what are likely to be marginal gains in a primary, but that he is winning by 35 points, right?

So the White House is smart, they know that everyone is going to be focused on the January 6th anniversary, they know that. The Washington Post just had a poll out that found 55 of Americans believe that storming the Capitol was, quote, an attack on democracy that should not be forgotten. And that includes a majority of independents who feel that way. So I do think it's smart to give a big speech that day, it's smart to fold it into a broader narrative about democracy.

I'm sure they anticipate that Trump will do or say something stupid or crazy at one of his events. That will help, you know, sort of add some fuel to their fire. And I like. I don't know if they announced how much or if any money is behind that ad. But, you know, you put out an ad as a press release half the time, so it could just be that. But I think it's smart to package this all up.

Absolutely, is January, the anniversary of January 6th, the exact right time to highlight that message? Cause you might get it covered absolutely. And to your point on the ad? Whether where it'll run, where to run, I don't. I don't think they put that out, that information.

I don't know, but they gave it exclusively to Morning Joe this morning, so at least it was a. You know, I'm sure it'll play on the cable channel all day. And probably part of the audience of that is just Biden supporters, just to see it show that he's out there fighting. Um, and I think that is probably even more important than what he says, uh, and does on January 6th. And I should note, actually, the speech was supposed to be on Saturday, which is the anniversary of January 6th. But there is apparently a blizzard coming to the East coast. And so they moved it up a day so they could make sure they actually got to give the speech. Um, which is another example of just how hard it is to get your message covered in the White House is.

Sometimes even weather gets in the way, yeah.

I did it from the Capitol, something like that, that just shows energy and vigor. And a you know that he's taking on this very real threat. Um, is good politics for him? So I think this is the this is the right thing to do. It doesn't mean he's not going to talk about inflation and that his accomplishments and all the other things are going to be part of this. Um, but I guess the question is, what else do you think Biden needs to be doing on top of this?

CNN reports. You're going to be shocked by this. The congressional Democrats want him to spend more time laying out a second term agenda. What do you think? The right balance is here?

Uh, like, you're not going to send out a PDF and be like, here it is on January 8th. Here's our Here's our reelect message. I mean, Dan, you would have a much better sense of this and memory of it than I would for the reelect. Because you were, uh, working on that. And I was a full-time NSC nerd at that point. Just like not solving the whole Benghazi problem.

But I I suspect that Biden will kickstart this process during the state of the Union. And over the coming months, you'll do a series of policy speeches and events to highlight kind of pieces of the platform, things you're fighting for, what you want to do with the second term, what you would do with a Democratic Congress. And then I suspect you'd want that platform and the narrative to be fully baked by his convention speech. And then you're just kind of hammering away from there. But you know, that vision has to include a contrast with your opponent, which he doesn't have yet. And if you're talking about all these things too early, you won't get it covered, you won't get the attention, and it will just be be a waste of time.

So I suspect, sort of in the more immediate term, they're thinking about getting back the Democratic voters that they lost. Make sure the party is unified. That could come from a second term agenda, that could come from highlighting the threat from Trump, it could come from course correcting on current policy. Like the handling of Gaza. I imagine it will require a mix of all of it. But yeah, I mean, those congressional leaders are not wrong, but maybe just a little premature.

The vision is more important than the details of the vision, and the details need to be essentially proof points for the kind of president Biden will be in a second term. What's the details of the white paper is not really going to matter, and it's going to matter, I think, even less than before. Because people are just so. Even as cynical as people were when we were trying to get Barack Obama reelected, they're even way more cynical now. So if Joe Biden stands up and says, I'm going to do this big, huge thing for the voters that he most needs to win over, they're going to be pretty skeptical that he can get that done. That's not even really about Joe Biden.

It's just about a broken political system. And so you. Along with that, he'll need a theory of change, like, what can he do that? what can he get done? is he going to? is he going to get a trifecta without a? With enough senators to not be bedeviled by the filibuster, it's going to be hard to sell that to the press, given the Senate map.

Um, so, but yes, you're gonna need some things to say, you're going to want, because people have to have to answer. He's going to have to answer questions, and canvassers are going to have to answer questions at the door. Like, what does it mean for me? and what does it mean? Can be can be protecting the progress we've made, it could mean ensuring the ACA is not repealed.

It could mean he will, he will be the bulwark against a the federal abortion ban the Republican Congress wants to pass. You know, all of those things like that, um, but this is you, this. Congressional Democrats always want this, and it's it matters, but it is not decisive in my opinion.

Cause I just think you're less convincing, so you can say, you know, that's the kind of language that was used by the Nazis and explain the context. But if you say this person is like, Hitler, I think a lot of folks kind of tune you out.

And so you just, you're going to have to make the case in a pretty relentless and specific and easily understood way. If you want to do that. That does not mean that, uh, the Biden folks can't, uh, you know, post some threads with pictures of Trump and Hitler. To make a point, you know, like, that's fine, that's not really. That's just sort of, uh, inside baseball. But on the larger argument about Trump as an authoritarian, Trump as a Nazi, Trump as a dictator, it's a. I think it is a more challenging case to make than a lot of us would like it to be.

That, you know, didn't include, um, being a full-on fascist, but included being a pretty god awful human being. Was a terrible leader.

First, starting January 16th, we have a new three day a week schedule, with episodes dropping Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Because, let's face it, there's too much going on to cover in just two episodes each week, the takes overflow with, as they say. Second, tune into the two episodes special of On the Ground in Iowa. For Tommy's onsite analysis of the GOP caucus and what it means for the pivotal election year ahead, listen to it on the pod Save America Feed starting January 10th.

When we come back, Steve Kornacki.

Joining us now as someone who needs no introduction to political junkies, the man behind the Magic Wall. NBC National political Correspondent Steve Kornacki Steve, welcome to the pod.

Have you been doing cardio, or you stay standing in front of a board to train for a long period of time? What do you? what are you doing to get ready?

What the? I think the most important thing for our coverage right now is just, um, the point of comparison that we're going to stress. Obviously for, uh, for all these Republican primaries, as long as they go, is just a 2016, the last open Republican primary, Trump's first time running. Um, you know, how was he doing with certain groups then? how is he doing now? Where has there been growth, has there been any slippage?

And um, you know, obviously the the question everybody's looking for still is, is there any room? Is there any scenario where a Desantis or a Haley still could, uh, could make this a game with him?

So that'll give us the best sense of it. But we've been in a bit of a lull here in terms of, uh, you know, polling out of Iowa and New Hampshire for that matter. But our most recent one, you know, now, um, you know, a couple of weeks old, but our most recent one had Trump over 50. We had him growing his support. From um, September to December, we had met 51 Desantis, 19, uh, Haley, 16, in Iowa. And um, you know, that's the last time you had a Republican. Uh, with a lead that big, this close to the caucuses, you got to go back to George W.

Bush In the 2000 cycle, Bush won Iowa fairly comfortably in 2000.

He did get a scare by losing New Hampshire to John McCain. But was, you know, we basically able to, uh, to win South Carolina and put that one to bed? So that's the kind of historical comparison I got in my mind, and, um, yeah, I think, look, Trump is obviously favored to win Iowa. The question is, does he actually win it?

How big does he win it and does somebody get a second place showing that? Um, that allows them to claim a moral victory and some momentum.

So in 2008, that was Mike Huckabee, he won Iowa, powered by Christian conservatives. Uh, you know, in 2012 it was Rick Santorum and a squeaker over Mitt Romney. But powered by evangelical Christians, um, and in 2016, Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump, powered by evangelical Christians. Um, they make up, you know, almost in 2016, two thirds of the caucus electorate.

Um, I think you're looking at about 60 65 of the caucus electorate, um, roughly, is going to identify as a born again or evangelical Christian. And so obviously, that group holds tremendous sway. And you've, you've seen? The last candidate who was able to get a win among evangelical Christians in Iowa, but also have broad support among non evangelical Christians in later states was George W. Bush in 2000. And at least in the polling right now, we're seeing Donald Trump fits that basic pattern that we saw with Bush in in 2000, which is to say, um, he leads.

Right now, he finished a very distant second. Trump did among evangelicals in Iowa in 2016.

He now leads by an R poll almost 30 points among evangelicals in Iowa. But then you test them in New Hampshire. And again, it's been a while since we've had a really good poll come out of there. But it's, you know, he's got. It's not as dominant. But he's got a lead there. And he's got a lead in every other state poll that we've seen, uh, including South Carolina, Nikki Haley's home state. So there's a there's a breadth of support across the sort of Republican spectrum that you never had with Huckabee.

You never had with Santorum, and you never had, uh, with Cruz. That right now, at least in the polling, Trump has.

22 is what he got in the caucuses in our polling. Now he's at 47. Um, I thought one thing before Mike Pence dropped out of the race, it was it was really striking to me. Um, evangelicals were going to be Pence's bedrock, that was the theory of his candidacy.

He fits when you talk about like a Huckabee, a Santorum, he absolutely fit that profile. He was, you know, he was going to make his stand in Iowa, and the final poll that was taken, that we took literally. As Pence was dropping out of the race, had Trump in the High Forties and had Pence at 1 in Iowa. Among evangelicals, so I think that's a it's a huge story in Iowa, and it's a huge story nationally. That since the beginning of that 2016 campaign, when there was a lot of skepticism and some plenty of resistance among evangelicals to Donald Trump, it's gone completely. Uh, in the opposite direction now, where not only are they supportive of him, but they're one of his core constituencies now.

If he's, if he's, um, if he's going to be competitive for the nomination. And he spent a lot more time in Iowa than, uh, than Nikki Haley has. So I I think there's more pressure on him to get second, but even if he gets second, if it's, if it's a second. Like we're seeing in our poll right now, where he's more than 30 points behind Trump, I'm not sure what, that, what that gets him. Um, I, you know, my sense is it would really have to be a second, a surprisingly strong second and I don't know quite where. You will have to see the final numbers to see where you, where you kind of set the bar, it could be funny.

In Iowa, you know, I mean the famous story back in in 1984, we're going way back in time here. Gary Hart lost Iowa by 34 points to Walter Mondale, but Gary Hart basically won Iowa. Because somehow he got momentum and he won New Hampshire, and it became this political phenomenon. So, you know, these weird benchmarks can kind of emerge. But um, I think DESantis, you know, has got to do something. Uh, not just second, but a kind of a significant second. Haley is a little different.

I think if she gets second for her campaign, it's it's a big boost. Uh, because she is much better positioned in New Hampshire than Ron DESantis is. Um, Haley has some real strengths in New Hampshire, um, she's running, you know, depending on the poll, she's running fairly competitively with Trump there right now. The big difference is the two big differences between Iowa and New Hampshire are we're talking about evangelical Christians. About two thirds, as I said, the electorate in Iowa maybe a quarter, in New Hampshire 20 to 25%.

So it's one of the most secular Republican electorates you're going to get, and also the participation of independent voters in the New Hampshire primary. Um, it's it's basically as high as you're going to find anywhere. Uh, in 2012, when Obama was running for reelection. And there was really no Democratic primary in New Hampshire, which is similar to what we're going to have this year. Um, 45 of the of the New Hampshire Republican primary electorate said they were independents who were choosing to participate in the Republican primary that day.

And Independent is the group that Haley is doing the best among right now. So if she can come out of Iowa with anything that looks like momentum, I do see a potential for her to roll that into New Hampshire and potentially make it interesting there.

And Haley is McCain, given that, and given Haley strength in New Hampshire, are you surprised that Haley's even competing in Iowa? Because Trump? Because McCain famously did not compete in Iowa, did not compete again in Iowa in 2008 and put all of his chips in New Hampshire and helped stay alive in 2000, and it helped him become the nominee in 2008. Are you even surprised by that strategic decision from the Haley folks?

They've got to expand on that. So I think the. From that standpoint, there's some importance in Iowa in showing that they can win over some of those, some voters who don't fit the profile I was just talking about.

But you talk a little bit about the role that second choice plays and sort of how people game out these strategies.

This year, there's going to be a primary. no delegates are at stake. Haley will be on the primary ballot. There's going to be a caucus two days later. Haley will not be part of that.

The delegates will be awarded there. So Nevada is a very weird one and I don't know that it's going to carry much weight this time around. So I think, what really? If if Haley were to, you know, get a strong second or a meaningful second out of Iowa if this is a huge if. But if she were able to win New Hampshire, you know, she would get. Obviously, there'd be a flood of attention, the media spotlight, you know, and there'd be, you know, could she actually knock off Donald Trump? And I think the state then, this would be like that. Parallel to 2000, with Bush and McCain, the Bush and McCain race went to South Carolina, the Trump and Haley race would go to South Carolina.

South Carolina, in this case, her home state too. And so, you know, she would then need to win, um, obviously, she would need to win South Carolina. I think to to to make a plausible claim. And the problem she gets into, she's polling right now much better in New Hampshire than she is in her home state and South Carolina. Again, we talk about New Hampshire being the most secular Republican electorate. South Carolina, I think in in 2016, was 72 evangelical, and it's Republican, you know, so even more than Iowa. And Trump, of course, you know, swept it in in 2016, so you know, right away, um, you know. If she gets the huge win out of New Hampshire, you know? She's going to a state that demographically is a huge challenge for her, given given the nature of her support right now. But it's also her home state.

And so I. It'd be awfully tough if she didn't win South Carolina or come awfully close. I think it'd be tough to to make the case that she's got momentum to continue. Because there's. There's a lot more states in the in the Republican primary mix that that resemble Iowa and South Carolina demographically than that resemble New Hampshire. So from her standpoint, you know, it's it's get to South Carolina. And I, you know, I don't think they would say this, but I think realistically she would then need to win South Carolina. And I, you know, I think for DeSantis, it's, you know, it's to get a strong, a strong second out of Iowa show. There's some life there.

Um, and then I think, you know, he's not pulling that well in New Hampshire. And I think he might run into some of those problems you talk about. Like a. A. Huckabee, A Cruz, A. Santorum having in New Hampshire. I think he might then look down south, um, look more, to make a stand in South Carolina. And some of those super Tuesday states, um, and and say, Hey, look, I'm a viable alternative. And yeah, I don't know, maybe maybe on some level. They're hoping that, you know, this has been the hope of all of Trump's opponents on the Republican side for eight years. Something happens that kind of kind of, you know, marginalizes them or takes them out, but nothing, nothing has yet.

It was Cruz's best. And Sioux County Of the 99 counties in Iowa, Sioux County was the worst one for Donald Trump. In 2016. He got 11 out of Sioux. So, you know, in overwhelmingly conservative and evangelical county. Pretty good size, too.

You know, it's not where the big population center in Iowa is, but for that region, it's a good size. Um, so, you know, is he, is he winning there? I mean, the polls right now suggest if he's getting 47 with evangelicals, he's winning. In a place like Sioux. Is he? is he just rolling up massive margins? Um, if he is. If we were to get Sioux early in the night and Trump were to be up, you know, you know, 20, 30 points, something like that. I think it'd be very hard to see how Desantis is having a good night if you were to get Sioux and Desantis. Were, you know, within single digits. You might say, Oh, this. This might be a little more interesting than we thought.

So on the one end, it's that on the other end, you know? You look at some of these suburban areas, you could look at Polk County, where Des Moines is, you could look right outside at Dallas County suburbs of Des Moines. This is another place where Trump struggled in 2016. It's it's not here. The evangelical presence is a lot lower, but what you're going to get more are college educated, suburban.

Uh, these are the types of Republicans who traditionally vote more on pocketbook issues. And they were very uncomfortable with Trump in Iowa and in other states, and have been since 2016. Obviously, um, this is an area where Haley in the polling, you know, we're seeing it suggest she do very well. Um, how well is she doing here? How poorly is Trump doing in these suburban areas?

Um, cause again, if if Haley were suddenly rolling up huge numbers here, or if Trump were just lagging badly, maybe even Desantis was running up huge numbers here again, you could say, well, we this, this, this might be interesting here, uh, for the night. But if, uh, if. If Trump's, you know, holding his own there and running up big numbers with evangelicals, then you're going to get a result that looks like the polls do right now.

This, for everybody, is just Trump is overwhelmingly popular with Republican voters. See, you look at our poll in Iowa and you just ask among Republicans favorable, unfavorable, and you tick through the candidates. We had Trump at 72 favorable in our last poll, um, desantis we had at 66 favorable. And so I think that gets to the dilemma that he's faced.

And I don't think it's found a way to resolve all year, which is that like, he's. It's not that Republicans are looking at Desantis and saying, Oh, no, I don't know. I don't like this guy. They like him, they like him, um, but I think a big reason they like him is that. He has not gone head on against Trump, because the people who have gone head on against Trump. You just look in the poll, Chris Christie, no one has been more aggressively out there against Trump in the in, uh, in this campaign.

And Christie Christie's number is like, 15 20 favorable among Republicans, 60, 65, 70 unfavorable for Christie. That's what squarely aligning yourself against Trump will do to you, and I think that DESantis recognized that from early in the campaign. Um, and I think his, his, his belief. His campaign's belief and assumption from the start of the campaign was that. The 2022 midterms, where Republicans underperformed and where the Trump aligned candidates, cost Republicans the Senate and cost them some key statewide races. In the wake of that, there was a growing consensus among the Republican electorate that hey, yeah, we like Trump, but it's time to move on.

And DESantis would be there to fill that void. And in fact, the early, early polling, I mean, I'm talking about, like December 2022, January 2023 showed, seemed to show that DESantis was very competitive in those polls. If you did a line graph of the uh of, uh of 2023 in the polling. Where the Trump and DeSantis lines, um, diverge, and Trump just takes off like a rocket, and DESantis begins this slow descent. It was early March 2023, and that's when that first Trump indictment, you know, in Manhattan over the Stormy Daniels matter came out. And it was almost like that was the rally around Trump moment.

And Republicans did that, and they have stayed behind him, and, in fact, in the polling, at least even grown in their support for him, you know, since then.

And the the narrative of the race is is Trump is strong, and if anyone is surging, it is Haley. And I think it is true that Haley has, albeit a narrow one, a clearer path to possibly winning. But DeSantis is 20 points more popular in a lot of these polls. And one of the most interesting dynamics is that, as Haley is quote unquote surged mainly in New Hampshire. The number of Republicans in the polling who are open to voting for her has gone down nationally, and the and her approval rating has gone down.

Can you talk a little bit about that dynamic?

McCain said I'm all in on New Hampshire, remember the Straight Talk, Express, the bus, the reporters, everything's on the record. And he, yeah, he was kind of, he was the, be honest, the candidate of the media. Um, in 2000. And it was so, so attractive to, uh, independent voters who play such a huge role in New Hampshire.

And so he swamped Bush in New Hampshire. It was a 20 point win. It was the magnitude nobody saw coming and it was like, Holy cow, is this guy actually going to beat Bush? And what the Bush campaign immediately turned around and did was it made the race Bush versus McCain a referendum on Are you a real Republican?

Or Are you, you know? Uh, are you? Um, what was the word? Bush used? A mischievous Democrat, a mischievous independent who's taking their cues from the media and, you know, trying to cause trouble. In the Republican primary, it was like, if you're loyal to the party, you're voting Bush, you know, a vote for McCain is a disloyal vote for a Republican. That's what the Bush campaign message was post New Hampshire.

And it worked. Um, and McCain did have some success after New Hampshire, but it was all it was directly related to. Like, could independence vote in the state? How big was the presence of independence in the state? You know, McCain won Michigan.

You know it, it, it, it, it had enough, you know, of an independent, even democratic presence there, um, but, you know, a state like South Carolina. Bush was able to win easily. And and so that's the problem that Haley, I think, faces again, to the extent that her success is seen as coming from either non-Republicans or from Trump hostile Republicans. I think it's going to it risks, and we're seeing already. It engenders the same reaction from core Republican voters that McCain's strength among independence and and and bush skeptical Republicans. Uh, did in in in 2000, and that is like, Nope, this is, this is the media's candidate.

This is the Democrats candidate. We're not doing this, we're we want the real Republican. And you know, I think, I think that's how Trump is viewed by a lot of these Republicans when it comes down to it.

If Haley has any successes, can she survive that assault from Trump?

And again, like I say, it's, it's just the fact that it's her home state, too, just raises the stakes that much more. If she's. You were saying, it's like seeing a path more for Haley than than DESantis. I tend to agree in the sense that I can see potentially a Haley win in New Hampshire. From where we're standing right now, um, it's hard to see a DESantis win in Iowa or any of these early states from where we're standing right now. This can change overnight in politics. But yeah, if she gets that win in New Hampshire, it's also it. It's hard to see, it's weird to say, it's hard to see her turning around and winning her home state. Just given, given these dynamics, and then given that Trump will be coming after her, you know, with full force and fury, presumably.

Um, but yeah, it's a month, I mean, it's, you know, New Hampshire is going to vote January 23rd, South Carolina is going to vote February 24th. So you got a month in between, and, um, you know, it would be, um, we'd be obviously looking closely at all those polls in between.

Is she showing, is she showing growth, is she showing growth with Republicans, with evangelicals, with these groups that that right now seem resistant to her? Um, if she were to start showing, if she were to come off in New Hampshire when it starts showing that, then then you'd be talking about a different race. But she's, she'd have to show that. Which right now, we haven't seen.

So I am looking like, in the wake of that, does her, does she stall with independence? does she move backward with independence? She's doing well with college educated women? Um, does that change at all? You know? I think these are groups that, in some, you could see in polling, um, might be more swayed by a story like that.

The closest, you know, Gerald Ford, looked at it in 1980 and almost ran. And that's, that's. That's the closest thing there is to a parallel, and that's not a parallel in any meaningful way. Um, so no, we, we don't have a good parallel for it. Um, and you know, I just people ask me how I look at that race.

And from this vantage point, at least, I, you know, it's. It's striking that the polling, uh, the Trump Biden polling right now is quantitatively different than it was at any point in the 2019 2020. UM cycle. Every, uh, major national poll in 2019 and 2020 had Biden ahead. The question was by how much? um, and I looked at our NBC polling 2019, 2020, um, everyone had Biden up. The smallest margin was six.

The biggest margin was 12.

Um, and now we consistently have reputable national polls that show a tied race Biden by one, Trump by one, Trump by two by right in that range. So it's it's interesting to me that we've, we're. We're seeing polling that looks very different this time around than it did in 2020. Um, and it raises some questions, you know, that'll we'll have nine months potentially to hash out here.

Um, but I it just. It makes me look at it and say, I, you know, this is, you know, it's a cop out to say. But it looks like a toss. from this vantage point, it looks like a toss up race.

And then it gets even more complicated when you add in potentially extremely well-funded, well-known third-party candidates like an RFK junior, a, uh, Joe Manchin, or some other no labels candidate. These folks on the ballot, uh, make, you know, lowers that number where someone could win a state with 37 of the vote, as opposed to the 49 or 50 you would need to win. And like there was in, Uh, 2020..

Um, and like you said, there's the potential for others to get in as well. There's the extremely high negatives that both Trump and Biden have. And um, yeah, I know in 2016 there was a lot of I don't like Trump, I don't like Hillary, and the Libertarians got 3%.

I mean, there was a little bit of that in 2016.

But I, I look at these polls and there's potential for a lot more in 2024, and that's I. That looms to me as a huge potential wildcard. At least again. It's pending how serious RFK ends up being about putting an organization together, getting on ballots. Does Mansion take the bait? Go with no labels? Do they get it all about? I mean, there's all those questions around it. But boy, if they did, yeah, I mean, it could be. We could be talking third party impact we've. 1992 is the last time we saw the level of No. Steve Kornacki.

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