McCarthy has been ousted as US House speaker. What happens next?
2023-10-04 00:22:38
Every Friday, Guardian columnist and former Washington correspondent, Jonathan Freedland, invites experts to help analyse the latest in American politics. From politicians to journalists covering the White House and beyond, Jonathan and his guests give listeners behind the scenes access to how the American political machine works.
This is The Guardian.
It's Wednesday, not normally the day we're with you, but huge news overnight. Kevin McCarthy has just become the first speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives ever to be removed from his job.
The Office of Speaker of the House of the United States House of Representatives is hereby declared vacant.
Eight House Republicans joined every Democrat in the chamber to rest the speaker's gavel from McCarthy's hand. From the day I entered politics, my mission has always been to make tomorrow better than today. I fought for what I believe in, and I believe in this country of America. For now, McCarthy's fellow Republican representative, Patrick Henry of North Carolina, is the acting speaker. But the House will most likely need to vote next week on who will take over permanently.
McCarthy's ruled out running again, but there are several names being floated, including Brace yourself, former President Donald Trump. So what happens next? The Washington Bureau chief for the Guardian, David Smith, joins me to discuss the fallout of this genuinely historic event and the possibilities. I'm Jonathan Friedland, columnist of The Guardian, and this is Politics Weekly American.
Washington Bureau Chief David Smith, Excellent to have you on the podcast, especially for one of these emergency updates. The first time a House Speaker has ever been voted out like this by his own party. What just happened?
It is extraordinary. And, you know, in the Donald Trump era, we have somewhat overused words such as historic and unprecedented. But this one might qualify. As you say, the first time ever a House speaker ousted like this. Kevin McCarthy, defeated by the entire Democratic caucus in the House, and also eight hard right Republicans.
The Yeas are 216.
The NAYs are 210. The resolution is adopted.
I mean, what just happened? There was the drama of Tuesday on Capitol Hill. But there's also years of growing extremism in the Republican Party, and then, more recently, last year's midterm elections, Republicans won a very narrow majority. I think from that moment, we were always potentially building towards something like this.
In January, of course, McCarthy won the speakership after 15 rounds of voting.
The total number of votes cast is 428, of which the honorable Kevin McCarthy of the State of California has received 216.
Had to cut a deal with the far right, and since then he's been trying to govern an almost ungovernable caucus there. And that reached a crescendo last week, when we nearly had a government shutdown.
Just a short time ago, the Senate approved a bill to keep the government funded for 45 days to get it passed. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy dropped his demands for steep spending cuts.
The far right of the party was to slash government spending, and in the end, the government only stayed open. Because McCarthy got some support from Democrats, and certainly, right. When Congressman Matt Gaetz had warned if such a thing happened, he would seek to oust McCarthy, McCarthy tweeted words to the effect of Bring it on.
And Matt Gaetz replied Just did.
Republican congressman Matt Gaetz made good on his threats and filed a resolution to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
And sure enough, we got the motion to vacate and the numbers were on Matt Gaetz's side. McCarthy was defeated and lost his job.
And as you say from the beginning, McCarthy was hanging on by a thread, really. His majority was so small, as we've seen, as you and I speak. Just hours ago. It only took eight votes, eight Republicans, to defect away from him from that far right faction. And he was out because he had no kind of cushion there, he was just on the most slender of majorities. But just let's just drill down into the immediate provocation.
And, of course, you know, the last flashpoint. What exactly was the crime Kevin McCarthy had committed? In the eyes of this pro-trump sort of MAGA Make America Great Again faction? Was it the fact that McCarthy had, you know, sat down with the devil in the form of Joe Biden? And come to a deal to keep the U.S. government open? Or was there some other statement or actions? What was the last straw for Matt Gaetz and his fellow Trumpite Republicans?
Yes, the last straw was just not being radical and extreme enough.
Mr. Speaker, my friend from Oklahoma says that my colleagues and I who don't support Kevin McCarthy, would plunge the House and the country into chaos. Chaos is Speaker McCarthy.
Matt Gaetz and others say Look, America has a national debt of 33 trillion dollars. We have to slash and burn. And McCarthy made some concessions, but it was impossible to get such an arrangement through again. Because of that narrow majority, because of the need for democratic support, he did manage to block Ukraine funding.
And I'm sure the far right were happy about that. But even so, he did not go far enough to satisfy them. Matt Gaetz regarded As you know, these are the priorities of Nancy Pelosi, the former House Speaker, the priorities of Joe Biden, and so on. They regarded McCarthy as being the facilitator of that, and so they vowed revenge.
The one thing that the White House, House, Democrats, and many of us on the conservative side of the Republican caucus would argue is that the thing we have in common. Kevin McCarthy said something to all of us at one point or another that he didn't really mean and never intended to live up to.
Now you yourself in your comments just now, and a lot of the American commentators have been saying. This was, in effect, the chronicle of a death. Foretold that McCarthy was vulnerable from the very start, and just take us back to that moment where he did become House speaker, as you said, after 15 rounds of voting. There is a view that right then, from the very start, he was speaker. In a way on sufferance, just on the dependent, on the pleasure of the approval of the right. That he was in a way there, captive, and in some ways, that the fix was in. Even going back further, right to January 2021, where Kevin McCarthy, after the events of January 6th, that sort of storming of Capitol Hill, initially condemned. Donald Trump. The president, bears responsibility for Wednesday's attack on Congress by mob rioters.
And realize that where power lay in the party. And he went down to Mar-a-Lago and bent the knee to Donald Trump. In a way, you put all these things together. He was just dependent on the far right of his party, and as soon as they withdrew their permission for him to govern, it was going to be over.
Yes, I think a personal tragedy foretold is the right way to look at it. Many, including the far right, regarded Kevin McCarthy as a vessel like a puppet, almost. And that didn't quite go according to plan for some of the extremists. Later in the year, when we nearly had a default on the national debt.
After weeks of negotiations, the White House and Republican leadership have reached a tentative agreement to lift the nation's debt ceiling. Hoping to avoid default by cutting a deal on key spending and budget questions.
And that was a bit of a defeat for the far right. It would have been so apocalyptic and so. They were doubly determined when it came to the latest spending bill that they would shut down the government. Compared to a national debt default, that I think didn't seem so drastic.
We've had government shutdowns before, you heard some of them openly saying, let's shut it down.
The former president saying the GOP should just let the government shut down as leverage, posting quote. Republicans in Congress can and must defund all aspects of crooked Joe Biden's weaponized government. That refuses to close the border and treats half the country as enemies of the state.
And so, when even that was thwarted, McCarthy's number was up.
The result is, and the statisticians have been out there because this is unprecedented and been noting that. Kevin McCarthy lasted 270 days as speaker, which is a mere fraction of the two thousand, nine hundred and twenty days that Nancy Pelosi served in the job. And people noting that 270 days a speaker is 27. Scaramucci's Scaramucci being the unit of measurement, ten days he did as Donald Trump's director of communications, and Kevin McCarthy only managed to last 27 times as long as that.
I mean, it's all it is unheard of for somebody to be in for so briefly and to be out at the hand of his own faction. So in the end, it came down to just these eight people. Give us a flavor of who they are.
That's right. Eight House Republicans voted against McCarthy. Being a pro Trump extremist was not the only criterion here, because some of the biggest names in the Trump faction actually voted with McCarthy. Thinking of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Bobert, whereas someone like Matt Gates of Florida, who often campaigns with Marjorie Taylor, greene their allies. They disagreed on this issue because Gates really emerged as the face of this movement to get rid of McCarthy and tabled the motion. He's had many controversies over the years, and certainly his critics say he is grandstanding trying to get that viral clip on social media.
He's criticized as one of the worst types of 21st century politicians, now as an attention grabber.
And people say, perhaps he's got an eye on the governorship of Florida himself. That he's ambitious for bigger office. And is using this as part of his bid for attention and for a new stage.
That's right. Another eye catching name among the eight is congresswoman Nancy Mace of South Carolina, who has sometimes been critical of Trump. In the past. Other moments tried to align herself with him, faced a Trump endorsed candidate in South Carolina and won. She said that Kevin McCarthy broke his promise with the latest budget continuing resolution. As a woman, I have been fighting for women's rights since before I ever came to Congress.
And when Roe v. Wade was overturned, I continued that fight. And I've made deals with Kevin McCarthy, with the speaker, that he has not kept to help women in this country. And we have done nothing for them. She has tried to really carve a niche for herself as a as a maverick.
She's often more moderate on abortion rights, for example, than many on the right of the party. Her politics are often unpredictable. You know, the rest of this group are certainly right wing Republicans, not necessarily big names. And one of the telling aspects of the day's events is that this time, Donald Trump apparently sat on his hands and did nothing to help Kevin McCarthy. If you think back to the speakership election, Trump appeared to be working the phones, talking to people like Marjorie Taylor Greene, trying to ensure McCarthy got elected.
Minutes later, McCarthy personally thanked Trump, but this time, there appeared at least to be a deafening silence. And yet another sign that if you're desperately loyal and toadyish to Trump, you will not necessarily get rewarded from him, he might cut you loose.
Yeah, and plenty of people who can testify to that have been burned that way. Just before we talk about what happens next, what the fallout is, what the next moves are just a word on the Democrats. I mean, when you look at that vote, all the big votes against Kevin McCarthy aren't the eight, they're the crucial ones, those eight Republicans. But it's the 200 odd Democrats who voted on block against McCarthy. To sink him, they could have helped him.
They could have thrown him a lifeline if some of them had said. We're not going to line up with Matt Gaetz and the hard right of the Republican Party. We're going to bail out Kevin McCarthy. There's been reporting that there were some desperate phone calls to Democrats saying, essentially lend us a few votes to keep McCarthy in place. Otherwise you're going to get some crazy far right Republican in place. Instead, Democrats remain solid and against McCarthy.
Why was that?
There was also a phone call between Kevin McCarthy and Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic Minority leader. We don't know what was said, but perhaps McCarthy was begging for help.
We are ready, willing and able to work together with our Republican colleagues, but it is on them to join us to move the Congress and the country forward.
And certainly, in recent days, there was speculation that, you know, perhaps McCarthy did help keep the government open. Democrats might give him some reward. And then when you took a second look at it and heard what Democrats were saying, you realize, No, that's not going to happen. For one thing, it's not very long ago at all that Kevin McCarthy stood up and announced an impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden.
This logical next step will give our committees the full power to gather all the facts and answers for the American public.
Which, as you can imagine, did not go down well with Democrats. And we've already had the first impeachment inquiry hearing, which totally backfired on Republicans when even their own star witnesses said there is not enough evidence to impeach here. And then, in terms of destroying any sense of goodwill. Even on Sunday, on the politics shows on TV. McCarthy was sitting there blaming Democrats for trying to shut down the government and claiming that his side were the ones keeping it open. Which I think most fact checkers would disagree with. So, and you're seeing. Democrats say they voted against McCarthy because he has presided over a Make America Great Again caucus, a chaos caucus. And I think they have to stand on.
They felt they had to stand on that principle rather than trying to second guess who might come next.
Well, let's do our own guessing about what might come next and who might come next. Unusually, I think this will surprise people. Under the rules, it doesn't actually have to be a member of the House of Representatives. And so there are, of course, you'd expect this MAGA. Republicans who are even beginning to hint at the name of Donald Trump coming in the speaker don't think that's hugely serious.
But you just tell us what the next steps are. And are we going to see those rounds of votes one after another, just like we saw back in January?
Yeah, I think this is going to be chaotic and paralyzing, and basically, Republicans do have to sit down and figure out where they go next. As you said, it's the first time in American history that a speaker has been voted out of office. Therefore, there is no real roadmap for what they do, nor are there rules that say how long this acting speaker can be in place. Or when they have to hold another election. There will be much back and forth and meetings and maybe finding candidates, putting themselves forward.
One naturally looks at some of the top tier people in the House Republican Caucus, such as Steve Scalise or Elise Stefanik, or perhaps McHenry himself. What's already emerged from critics is just a sense of the greatest losers. Once again, are the American people here? Because the whole point of Congress is to fix the economy, deal with inequality, tackle crime. And instead, this body will be consumed by internal warfare and factionalism and squabbling. And who's going to be the next leader? And just nothing will get done.
Let me run two potentially long term consequences past you. And you just tell me if either of them could pan out, or if I'm barking out the wrong tree. The first one. Is this the death knell for bipartisan cooperation? Because there was McCarthy and Biden, you know, being glad to shake hands with each other and strike a deal. Averting that debt crisis, but also just now, in a way of avoiding a government shutdown. And what this shows is, if you cooperate with the other side, you will be thrown overboard. And secondly, are we watching? In effect, a split in the Republican Party, with a MAGA faction essentially breaking off from the rest of the Republican Party.
So those are, you know, the two big long term conclusions one might draw from these extraordinary events. Or am I overreading?
You may be overreading a bit in that. Members of Congress on both sides would be quick to tell you that. Over the last few years, a surprising amount of bipartisan legislation did get passed. But they would note a whole lot of things that often don't make news headlines. Will the next speaker attain that job by promising to be even harder on Joe Biden and even more extreme? Difficult to know. And certainly, I think, until the next round of elections, we're probably stuck in this. And much longer term, it may take a world in which, perhaps, Donald Trump is routed again. And finally, the Republican Party has to pivot towards the center, and we get a bit more bipartisanship there.
But yeah, I think there are many who would argue that MAGA and the Republican Party are all almost synonymous. Now it's still Donald Trump's party. In many ways. They're getting big enough now that they have their own factional disputes, I suppose, and their own. There are different flavors of MAGA.
Yes, but it's generally MAGA all the way, to be honest. Even many of the so-called moderates in the Republican Party who voted to retain Kevin McCarthy have some, you know, pretty right wing policy agendas.
Bad timing, in a way, by the Republicans making this move late on a Tuesday. On the very day that Hunter Biden had turned up in court to plead not guilty on three federal gun charges.
The president's son faces three felony counts accused of lying about his drug use in 2018 on a federal form when buying a gun. The arraignment comes months after a previous plea deal in case fell apart in that same courthouse.
That could have given an opening for Republicans to make the Biden family the story, which they've been trying to do. They couldn't capitalize on that and on the very same day, and we might as well make this our what else? question. As you know, David, we always do like to ask about something else on this very day that they were making this move. There was the action going on in a New York court when the judge presiding over Donald Trump's civil fraud trial essentially ordered the former president to shut his mouth. Not to attack or even comment on court staff.
This follows a Truth social post from Donald Trump earlier today, naming the judge's clerk and claiming that she was. She shouldn't be in that position because she was friendly with Chuck Schumer. There was a picture of the two of them together.
Just tell us what on earth is going on with that.
Yeah, I think it's a reminder, you know, hold on to your hats for presidential election year next year. Because we've already got three dramatic stories playing out in a day. So I did notice earlier in the day. Fox News, obviously Conservative network, tends to be very loyal to the Republicans. Was showing the Hunter Biden court appearance and not the Kevin McCarthy chaos in the House. Maybe later even they had to cover McCarthy. Trump has got many trials. Of course, this latest one really strikes at his identity, that his pride as a successful businessman. This is all about his companies in New York. And it's already been found that he lied and inflated the value of those. And, of course, he does go on social media and attack people. And the court has imposed a gag order on.
And if he does it again, in theory, he could be jailed relatively soon. So, if your hat, your head hasn't exploded yet, there's a lot to go out there. And certainly politically. You see the Republicans and right wing media especially trying to use the Hunter Biden case to the very least, the very least, neutralize Donald Trump's troubles. And muddied the waters and say, Well, you know, they're all.
They've all got this problem together. Even though Hunter Biden's never held elected office and worked in the White House, you can't really compare the two. But yeah, we're, I think we are heading to an election intercutting legal dramas with campaign rallies potentially a bit on both sides.
Yeah, I think hold on to your hats. Extremely good advice as we go into 2024. David Smith, As always friend of the podcast, Thanks so much for talking with me for Politics Weekly America.
Thanks for having me.
We'll be back with a regular episode on Friday, but for now, it's goodbye. The producer is Daniel Stevens, the executive producer today. Nicole Jackson. I'm Jonathan Friedland. Thanks, as always for listening.
This is The Guardian.
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