Saturday, May 20, 2023

2023-05-20 00:15:20

NPR's Up First is the news you need to start your day. The three biggest stories of the day, with reporting and analysis from NPR News — in 10 minutes. Available weekdays at 6:30 a.m. ET, with hosts Leila Fadel, Steve Inskeep, Michel Martin and A Martinez. Also available on Saturdays at 9 a.m. ET, with Ayesha Rascoe and Scott Simon. On Sundays, hear a longer exploration behind the headlines with Ayesha Rascoe on "The Sunday Story," available by 8 a.m. ET. Subscribe and listen, then support your local NPR station at donate.npr.org.<br><br><em>Support NPR's reporting by subscribing to Up First+ and unlock sponsor-free listening. Learn more at plus.npr.org/upfirst</em>

1Speaker 1
00:02.24 – 00:06.90

This goes in stages, I've been in these negotiations before.

2Speaker 2
00:07.24 – 00:11.04

America's flirtation with default distracts talks in Hiroshima.

1Speaker 1
00:11.32 – 00:14.16

As Ukraine's president arrives there, I'm Scott Simon.

2Speaker 2
00:14.46 – 00:17.60

I'm Aisha Roscoe, and this is Up First from NPR News.

00:21.16 – 00:24.12

We'll have the latest from the ongoing G7 summit.

1Speaker 1
00:24.34 – 00:28.60

And the good news is that markets think the U.S. will make good on its obligations by

00:28.60 – 00:29.72

raising the debt ceiling.

00:29.86 – 00:33.54

The bad news, they liken it to passing a kidney stone.

2Speaker 2
00:33.98 – 00:35.20

We all know it will pass.

1Speaker 1
00:35.24 – 00:37.28

It's just a question of how painful it will be.

2Speaker 2
00:37.70 – 00:43.62

Let's hope nobody has to break out the lasers and Greek voters go to the polls this weekend

00:43.62 – 00:45.40

in a nail biter of an election.

1Speaker 1
00:45.64 – 00:46.90

So please stay with us.

00:46.96 – 00:48.90

We've got the news you need to start your weekend.

2Speaker 2
00:54.78 – 01:02.04

On the TED Radio Hour, MIT psychologist Sherry Turkle, her latest research into the intimate

01:02.04 – 01:05.48

relationships people are having with chatbots.

01:05.94 – 01:13.04

Technologies that say, I care about you, I love you, I'm here for you, take care of me.

01:13.58 – 01:16.56

The pros and cons of artificial intimacy.

5Speaker 5
01:16.82 – 01:19.16

That's on the TED Radio Hour from NPR.

1Speaker 1
01:21.18 – 01:25.96

First up, Japan and the meeting there of leaders from the world's wealthiest democracies.

2Speaker 2
01:26.76 – 01:28.50

At the top of the agenda is Ukraine.

01:28.76 – 01:33.78

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived today to attend the summit in person.

01:34.20 – 01:39.46

That just as President Biden and other leaders opened the door to providing fighter jets

01:39.46 – 01:40.12

to Ukraine.

1Speaker 1
01:40.68 – 01:45.50

But death ceiling talks back in Washington, D.C. are also on the minds of everybody.

01:45.74 – 01:49.14

We turn now to NPR White House correspondent Scott Detro, who's in Hiroshima.

01:49.28 – 01:50.80

Scott, thanks so much for being with us.

4Speaker 4
01:51.16 – 01:52.06

Hey, good evening, Scott.

01:52.16 – 01:52.52

How are you?

1Speaker 1
01:52.74 – 01:53.68

Fine, thank you.

01:53.98 – 01:55.28

That's right, it's evening there.

01:55.38 – 01:56.36

Morning here, my friend.

01:57.70 – 02:03.02

Volodymyr Zelensky's trip to Japan, brooded about, reported online, but now he's actually

02:03.02 – 02:03.72

there, I gather.

4Speaker 4
02:04.06 – 02:04.64

He is.

02:04.72 – 02:08.92

He arrived today, and this comes right in the middle of an extended charm offensive

02:08.92 – 02:13.56

from Zelensky, which is coming ahead of what we expect will be a major military offensive

02:13.56 – 02:14.32

from Ukraine.

02:14.92 – 02:19.22

Zelensky, remember, had not left the country much for obvious reasons for much of the first

02:19.22 – 02:19.96

year of the war.

02:20.50 – 02:23.92

Then he had that dramatic trip to Washington at the end of last year.

02:23.98 – 02:28.60

And more recently, Zelensky has been visiting heads of government in several countries to

02:28.60 – 02:33.48

pressure them to keep supporting Ukraine as military costs keep going up and as the war

02:33.48 – 02:34.56

keeps dragging on.

02:34.56 – 02:39.78

The trip to the G7 comes immediately after Zelensky made a similar case to the Arab League

02:39.78 – 02:41.44

in Saudi Arabia the other day.

02:41.96 – 02:46.36

We do not know much about his exact agenda here in Hiroshima, though the White House

02:46.36 – 02:50.82

is indicating he will almost certainly have a one-on-one meeting with President Biden

02:50.82 – 02:51.46

on Sunday.

1Speaker 1
02:51.96 – 02:55.44

And I gather there's a major welcoming gift in the offing.

02:55.56 – 03:01.70

President Biden now indicates that he would support Ukraine acquiring F-16 fighter jets

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from Western countries.

03:02.82 – 03:04.06

That's a change, isn't it?

4Speaker 4
03:04.44 – 03:08.34

And it's a much larger gift than they had in the gift bags for the reporters covering

03:08.34 – 03:09.20

this summit.

03:09.40 – 03:14.42

I mean, look, but on a serious note, this is a huge escalation in how the U.S. and its

03:14.42 – 03:15.68

allies are arming Ukraine.

03:15.94 – 03:18.66

Ukraine had been begging for these jets for more than a year.

03:19.22 – 03:20.04

Biden resisted.

03:20.10 – 03:23.78

He was worried that this could be something that would lead Russia to broaden the war

03:23.78 – 03:26.42

and perhaps retaliate against other countries.

03:26.72 – 03:32.44

But now, this week, Biden has told other G7 leaders the U.S. will support efforts to train

03:32.44 – 03:37.70

Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets and begin conversations about how to get F-16s

03:37.70 – 03:39.28

from other countries to Ukraine.

03:39.96 – 03:44.64

And at a briefing today, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the U.S. has adjusted

03:44.64 – 03:49.16

its position based on how Russia has waged its war and how Ukraine has responded.

03:49.80 – 03:54.32

He also told us that as the U.S. has increased the magnitude of the weapons it's providing,

03:54.54 – 03:59.50

one key thing has been getting promises from Ukraine that it will not use them to attack

03:59.50 – 04:00.60

inside Russia.

04:01.32 – 04:04.72

And he indicated that that promise would be key when it comes to these F-16s.

1Speaker 1
04:04.72 – 04:08.50

Chris, back at home, the President faces this growing crisis over the debt ceiling.

04:09.76 – 04:13.88

He apologized to Australia's Prime Minister for having to cancel his planned visit there

04:14.40 – 04:18.06

next week to get home sooner to deal with whatever's going on.

04:18.28 – 04:25.26

And again, I truly apologize to you for having you to come here rather than me being in Australia

04:25.26 – 04:26.00

right now.

04:26.40 – 04:29.38

But we have a little thing going on at home I've got to pay attention to.

04:29.90 – 04:33.26

Because in Washington, D.C., negotiations briefly stopped yesterday.

04:33.56 – 04:34.36

They've resumed.

04:34.90 – 04:36.04

What's the White House say, Scott?

4Speaker 4
04:36.48 – 04:38.96

There were pretty mixed messages today, which was interesting.

04:39.24 – 04:44.12

Right after that brief pause in negotiations, Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, look,

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there are big differences.

04:45.12 – 04:48.64

The talks may get difficult, but the White House is confident they can find an agreement.

04:49.34 – 04:53.86

Then a few hours later, communications director Ben LeVault issued a statement really blasting

04:53.86 – 04:56.76

House Republicans, implying they are negotiating in bad faith.

04:57.48 – 05:01.54

And then after that, President Biden was asked about this, and he said he is confident the

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U.S. will not default.

05:03.08 – 05:05.96

And he indicated he thought negotiations were going pretty normally.

1Speaker 1
05:06.24 – 05:08.08

This goes in stages.

05:08.76 – 05:11.00

I've been in these negotiations before.

4Speaker 4
05:11.34 – 05:16.78

Biden said he still believes the U.S. will avoid default, and he will be back late Sunday

05:16.78 – 05:18.42

to rejoin talks in person.

05:19.06 – 05:23.00

And one observation I had on this, the White House is doing a very strange dance here of

05:23.00 – 05:29.08

continuing to insist it is not in negotiations over the debt ceiling, even as it negotiates

05:29.08 – 05:29.80

over the debt ceiling.

05:29.92 – 05:32.34

I mean, they're negotiating the budget here.

05:32.78 – 05:35.76

But if the White House can't strike a deal to get the Republican-controlled House to

05:35.76 – 05:39.00

raise the debt ceiling, the U.S. will run out of money and default on its debt.

1Speaker 1
05:39.78 – 05:41.50

And Pierre Scott Tetreault in Hiroshima.

05:41.66 – 05:42.48

Thanks so much, Scott.

4Speaker 4
05:43.36 – 05:44.24

And Scott, I have bad news.

05:44.30 – 05:46.38

The Toyo Carp lost today, one to nothing.

1Speaker 1
05:46.74 – 05:47.54

Oh, my gosh.

05:47.56 – 05:48.36

My favorite team.

05:48.42 – 05:48.88

Who beat them?

05:48.92 – 05:49.24

Do you know?

4Speaker 4
05:49.70 – 05:51.12

The Hanshin Tigers.

1Speaker 1
05:51.32 – 05:52.12

Oh, my gosh.

05:52.12 – 05:52.48

All right.

05:52.54 – 05:52.96

Thank you.

4Speaker 4
05:53.30 – 05:53.70

Thank you.

2Speaker 2
05:59.50 – 06:02.22

And now for a little more on the debt ceiling.

1Speaker 1
06:02.52 – 06:06.46

As we just heard, it is a subject of concern at the summit in Hiroshima.

06:06.76 – 06:11.80

And of course, it's dominating the news in Washington, D.C., where negotiations are occurring.

2Speaker 2
06:12.02 – 06:16.52

But what about Wall Street, especially now that the Treasury Department says the U.S.

06:16.52 – 06:21.80

could be days away from being unable to pay its bills, threatening the global economy?

06:22.16 – 06:24.86

For that, we have NPR's David Gurra.

06:25.12 – 06:25.94

David, welcome.

5Speaker 5
06:26.38 – 06:26.88

Thanks, Aisha.

2Speaker 2
06:27.30 – 06:33.24

So, how worried is Wall Street about a potential default, or are they just shrugging this off?

5Speaker 5
06:33.48 – 06:37.10

Yeah, we're seeing some turmoil in the bond market, less volatility in stocks.

06:37.32 – 06:41.76

And my sense is Wall Street has been confident, pretty sanguine, actually, about this.

06:41.90 – 06:46.06

And it's funny, I said that to Libby Cantrell, who's a managing director at PIMCO, a company

06:46.06 – 06:48.28

that manages some of the world's largest bond funds.

06:48.56 – 06:49.70

And Libby corrected me.

06:49.76 – 06:52.20

She said Wall Street's preferred term is constructive.

06:52.48 – 06:54.14

Wall Street has been constructive.

06:54.34 – 06:55.88

This will get resolved without a default.

06:56.62 – 07:00.42

Like many investors, Cantrell believes that Washington is going to figure this out.

07:00.50 – 07:04.78

It may go down to the wire, but in the final minutes of the 11th hour, there's going to

07:04.78 – 07:05.22

be a deal.

1Speaker 1
07:05.82 – 07:10.12

One staffer on Capitol Hill likened this, the debt ceiling, to passing a kidney stone.

4Speaker 4
07:10.48 – 07:11.80

We all know it will pass.

1Speaker 1
07:11.84 – 07:13.94

It's just a question of how painful it will be.

3Speaker 3
07:14.50 – 07:18.08

And while graphic, I think that's an apt analogy for this process.

5Speaker 5
07:18.52 – 07:18.98

Pretty graphic.

07:19.44 – 07:23.78

Cantrell was a congressional staffer before she got into business, and she says it's in

07:23.78 – 07:26.02

no politician's interest to bring about a default.

07:26.28 – 07:30.38

And she's sure everyone who's involved in these negotiations, I assure you, recognizes

07:30.38 – 07:34.64

it would be a catastrophe if the U.S. were to default on its debt for the first time

07:34.64 – 07:35.06

in history.

2Speaker 2
07:35.98 – 07:36.50

Catastrophe.

07:37.38 – 07:40.08

Obviously, that is the worst-case scenario.

07:40.40 – 07:42.82

How are investors getting ready for that?

5Speaker 5
07:43.38 – 07:44.42

So this would be really bad.

07:44.50 – 07:45.46

Let's underscore that.

07:45.62 – 07:49.68

But investors and strategists I talked to were all very candid about how much they don't

07:49.68 – 07:52.22

know about what would happen if the U.S. were to default.

07:52.36 – 07:54.22

Again, we haven't been here before.

07:54.46 – 07:58.88

But they're thinking this through, and the uncertainty alone is bound to be a problem.

07:59.04 – 08:02.10

People would be waiting to see what happens, how this would shake out.

08:02.20 – 08:04.90

And at the very least, there'd be a big sell-off.

08:04.96 – 08:07.04

We just can't quantify how big that would be.

08:07.40 – 08:11.46

Now, if we go back to 2008, when we were on the precipice of the global financial crisis,

08:11.46 – 08:16.26

and Congress didn't approve a $700 billion rescue package, the stock market had one of

08:16.26 – 08:17.54

its worst days ever.

08:18.18 – 08:22.20

Many economists say we'd face another global financial crisis if there were a default,

08:22.40 – 08:27.18

and a default would have a profound effect on the value of U.S. government bonds, on

08:27.18 – 08:32.32

U.S. treasuries, which are seen and have been seen as some of the safest investments in

08:32.32 – 08:32.76

the world.

08:32.88 – 08:37.78

This is debt held by companies and countries, and treasuries are used as collateral in all

08:37.78 – 08:38.82

kinds of transactions.

2Speaker 2
08:38.82 – 08:43.86

And it would seem like this would have a negative impact on the average person, right?

5Speaker 5
08:44.28 – 08:44.44

Yeah.

08:44.74 – 08:49.14

It would cost the U.S. a lot more to sell debt, given investors would want more protection

08:49.14 – 08:51.34

on what would seem like a riskier bet than before.

08:51.94 – 08:53.22

This would have ripple effects.

08:53.52 – 08:55.64

If there's a default, borrowing costs would go up.

08:55.74 – 08:59.68

And just think about mortgage rates, which already have risen because the Federal Reserve

08:59.68 – 09:01.68

has hiked interest rates to fight high inflation.

09:01.92 – 09:03.54

They would climb even higher.

09:04.20 – 09:07.18

Seema Shah is the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

09:07.18 – 09:10.14

She's watching all of this unfold from London, where she's based.

09:10.22 – 09:13.88

And she told me this is happening at a really unfortunate time.

3Speaker 3
09:14.22 – 09:17.10

There are already significant pressures on the U.S. economy.

2Speaker 2
09:17.40 – 09:21.92

It cannot afford to have another major shock landing on its head.

5Speaker 5
09:22.32 – 09:25.52

Shah echoed what we've heard from economists and the Treasury Secretary and the Federal

09:25.52 – 09:30.60

Reserve Chair and many other policy analysts and policymakers that a default would kickstart

09:30.60 – 09:35.38

a recession, and there would be another global financial crisis like the one we saw back

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in 2008 and 2009.

2Speaker 2
09:37.48 – 09:43.00

You started off by saying Wall Street is basically pretty chill about this because investors

09:43.00 – 09:45.90

at this point, they've seen this show before.

09:46.08 – 09:50.86

They know that oftentimes Congress just kind of waits to the very last minute and then

5Speaker 5
09:50.86 – 09:51.68

they do something.

2Speaker 2
09:51.86 – 09:55.84

I mean, are they at the point where they just look at this as the new normal?

5Speaker 5
09:56.24 – 09:56.38

Yeah.

09:56.40 – 09:58.54

And they think that they know how this movie is going to end.

09:58.62 – 09:59.84

I think that's definitely the case.

09:59.90 – 10:02.62

So long as the U.S. has this limit on how much it can borrow.

10:02.62 – 10:06.46

And this week, we did see business leaders get more engaged with this process.

10:06.64 – 10:10.40

More than 100 executives wrote a letter to President Biden and to congressional leaders

10:10.40 – 10:14.30

urging them to raise the debt limit, warning them of the consequences of inaction.

10:14.88 – 10:17.02

The Treasury Secretary met with a couple dozen bank CEOs.

10:17.58 – 10:21.12

You can be constructive and frustrated, which I think many investors are.

10:21.64 – 10:25.88

Many of them also are resigned to the fact that this is, for better or worse, how Washington

10:25.88 – 10:26.64

works today.

10:26.82 – 10:30.86

And this debate and this threat of default is going to keep cropping up in the future.

2Speaker 2
10:31.58 – 10:34.22

NPR's David Gurra, thank you so much for joining us.

5Speaker 5
10:34.44 – 10:34.88

Thank you.

2Speaker 2
10:42.62 – 10:47.50

Voters in Greece go to the polls tomorrow for parliamentary elections that are being

10:47.50 – 10:50.82

described as the most unpredictable in years.

10:51.16 – 10:56.80

They come three months after the country's deadliest train crash in which 57 people died.

1Speaker 1
10:57.76 – 11:01.86

Many of those who died were students, and the crash stirred widespread anger towards

11:01.86 – 11:02.88

the country's leadership.

11:03.10 – 11:06.12

Reporter Lydia Imanolidou joins us now from Athens.

11:06.68 – 11:08.02

Lydia, thanks for being with us.

3Speaker 3
11:08.30 – 11:09.38

Thanks for having me, Scott.

1Speaker 1
11:09.78 – 11:12.44

How does this train crash become an issue in the election?

3Speaker 3
11:13.08 – 11:18.32

Well, the political backlash after the train crash in late February was massive.

11:18.72 – 11:22.12

It sparked huge protests, as you said, especially among young people.

11:22.12 – 11:27.44

But really, across the board, there was so much outrage among Greeks who blamed the country's

11:27.44 – 11:30.66

political establishment for the safety failures that led to the accident.

11:31.34 – 11:35.14

People called on the Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, to resign.

11:35.54 – 11:36.32

He did not.

11:36.50 – 11:37.68

He's running for re-election.

11:38.30 – 11:43.20

His conservative New Democracy Party, though, did see its lead in the polls narrow.

11:43.82 – 11:48.72

And the left-wing opposition party, SYRIZA, which is headed by the former Greek prime

11:48.72 – 11:52.54

minister, Alexis Tsipras, is trailing only a few points behind.

11:53.12 – 11:57.22

And then there are some smaller parties on the far right and the far left that have gained

11:57.22 – 11:57.90

some ground.

11:58.44 – 12:02.54

This, coupled with new election rules this year, means that there's probably not going

12:02.54 – 12:07.50

to be an outright winner in this round of elections, as second round is preliminarily

12:07.50 – 12:08.58

penciled in for July.

1Speaker 1
12:09.10 – 12:13.68

Greece, of course, was at the center of the Eurozone economic crisis 14 years ago.

12:14.42 – 12:15.90

The economy is better now.

12:16.58 – 12:20.18

How much are economic issues at the center of these elections?

3Speaker 3
12:20.72 – 12:25.20

Yeah, well, inflation and the economy are the top concerns for people in this country,

12:25.34 – 12:26.14

according to polls.

12:26.64 – 12:30.92

Many Greeks are not able to keep up with soaring food costs and with energy bills that skyrocketed

12:30.92 – 12:33.00

after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

12:33.58 – 12:38.96

And according to official figures, a good portion of Greeks are at risk of poverty.

12:39.56 – 12:43.48

Greece's economy, though, has come a long way over the past decade, and the Greek prime

12:43.48 – 12:45.22

minister can take some credit for that.

12:45.78 – 12:51.24

He's brought in foreign investment, cut corporate taxes, and we've seen unemployment rates dropping,

12:51.48 – 12:54.60

GDP growing, and the minimum wage and pensions.

12:54.94 – 12:58.56

And the prime minister says that if he's reelected, there's more economic growth on the way.

1Speaker 1
12:59.60 – 13:03.40

Given all this measurable progress, why are the elections so close?

3Speaker 3
13:04.20 – 13:08.02

Well, even though there has been economic progress, the prime minister's critics say

13:08.02 – 13:13.02

there's also been some backsliding, that there are some issues that threaten the rule of law.

13:13.02 – 13:18.40

One issue is this long-brewing spying scandal that the prime minister has been at the center of.

13:18.78 – 13:23.58

He and his government are accused of using spyware to monitor journalists and political opponents.

13:24.16 – 13:28.04

Also, media freedom in the country has declined, according to monitoring groups.

13:28.76 – 13:32.86

In fact, the annual index by the nonprofit Reporters Without Borders,

13:33.40 – 13:37.06

it ranks Greece dead last in the EU for media freedom.

13:37.74 – 13:42.40

And finally, this administration is accused of illegal and violent returns of migrants

13:42.40 – 13:45.18

who try to cross into Greece through neighboring Turkey.

13:45.54 – 13:48.00

The government has long denied so-called pushbacks,

13:48.12 – 13:50.98

but evidence that they're happening systematically is mounting.

13:51.72 – 13:55.98

Now, I can't say whether the prime minister's party will lose votes over these issues.

13:56.10 – 13:59.34

It's possible that the hardline policies at the border, for example,

13:59.56 – 14:02.00

will actually win over some voters on the right.

14:02.16 – 14:04.78

But this is the cloud of issues hanging over this election

14:04.78 – 14:07.44

less than a day before polls open here in Greece.

1Speaker 1
14:08.36 – 14:10.92

Lydia Emanolidou in Athens, thanks so much.

3Speaker 3
14:11.34 – 14:12.00

Thank you, Scott.

1Speaker 1
14:16.46 – 14:19.86

And that's Up First for Saturday, May 20th, 2023.

14:20.22 – 14:20.96

I'm Scott Simon.

2Speaker 2
14:21.30 – 14:22.52

And I'm Aisha Roscoe.

14:22.64 – 14:24.14

Tomorrow on this podcast,

14:24.52 – 14:29.10

making do along the Colorado River during a second decade of mega drought.

1Speaker 1
14:29.58 – 14:32.38

Today's episode of Up First was edited by Roberta Rampton,

14:32.60 – 14:37.10

Nishant Tejia, Rafael Nam, Hadil Al-Shalshi, and Ed McNulty.

2Speaker 2
14:37.36 – 14:40.42

It was produced by Andrew Craig and Danny Hensel

14:40.42 – 14:44.90

and directed by Michael Radcliffe with engineering support from Hannah Glovna.

1Speaker 1
14:45.38 – 14:48.04

Evie Stone is our senior supervising editor.

14:48.24 – 14:50.26

Our executive producer is Sarah Lucy Oliver,

14:50.46 – 14:52.88

and our deputy managing editor is Jim Kane.

2Speaker 2
14:53.46 – 14:56.36

And for more news and interviews, books and music,

14:56.56 – 15:01.54

turn on the radio every Saturday and Sunday morning for Weekend Edition from NPR News.

15:02.08 – 15:05.58

Find your NPR station at stations.npr.org.

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