DeSantis drops out, Trump rallies and Haley brings out Judge Judy

Hi there, I'm Jonathan Freedland, columnist at The Guardian, and this is Politics Weekly America from New Hampshire. It is voting day, election day tomorrow. Now it is very much a two-horse race with the exit of Ron DeSantis. We've prayed and deliberated on the way forward. If there was anything I could do to produce a favorable outcome, more campaign stops, more interviews, I would do it.

But I can't ask our supporters to volunteer their time and donate their resources if we don't have a clear path to victory. In this second of our three special episodes from New Hampshire, we're crisscrossing the state, going to the campaign events, the final rallies, the last-ditch pleas for votes from these remaining candidates, and we're asking the big question which everyone here is asking. Can Nikki Haley pull off what would be one of the biggest New Hampshire upsets in years and beat Donald Trump?

Now the history books will show that one of Ron DeSantis' last events of his presidential campaign in 2024 was in the town of Nashua, New Hampshire, and as it happens, I was there. And I did have to say there was a slightly ominous feeling. First of all, the room was so small, I mean maybe 60 people there, that is not a big turnout. But I was speaking to people who turned up ahead of time, and you had to be a bit worried if you were Ron DeSantis, because of the people I spoke to, stopping them at random, one was a student who couldn't vote, one had come from next door, Massachusetts, so couldn't vote in the New Hampshire primary. We come up here to meet all the candidates, so I haven't really made a decision yet.

We don't vote until March. A third was one of a group of men who'd come up from Florida, where they vote. Ron DeSantis is a great governor and we really love him. And finally, I did meet someone who had actually already voted in the New Hampshire primary, she'd cast an early ballot, trouble was, she'd cast her ballot for Nikki Haley. Ron does good, but I really needed him to win, and I just saw him kind of petering out.

He seems a little nervous, and those are not reasons, that's like picking a car for the colour. I understand I shouldn't pick for those kind of shallow things, his policies are fine. His policies are great. But on the shallow things, you're talking about the way. he's kind of awkward with people.

How he stands, you know, beautiful family though. So I mean, I cannot go wrong with any of them. So these were not encouraging signs for Ron DeSantis, in a way they were warnings of what has happened. When I got the word that Ron DeSantis had dropped out, it was standing here in the lobby at the Doubletree Hotel. A TV was on in the corner just by the bar there and showed breaking news, Ron DeSantis announces that he's quitting his campaign.

Luckily for me, right here in the lobby was the veteran Republican, post-political consultant, Frank Luntz. He realised that the events were too small. He probably saw Donald Trump's event last night. that was huge, 3,000 people maybe. And that his events weren't even drawing 300 people.

So the writing was on the wall. And he wants to be prepared and well positioned for 2028.. I'm convinced he's going to try again. He's had a very good record as Florida governor, but a very bad campaign against Donald Trump. So he understood where he was headed and he decided to pull the plug, which is probably smart.

Do it before you embarrass yourself, not after. What I don't get is we all thought that he knew he was going to do badly in New Hampshire anyway, that he'd sort of written it off and he would go on to South Carolina. So if it had a bad result, he could have lived surely to fight another day. There was nothing new for him to find out, given that this was already a losing campaign in this state. Why didn't he just at least give himself that last stand in South Carolina?

Because it was likely, it was possible that Nikki Haley could win in New Hampshire. Which means that you have two candidates having one. that would weaken Donald Trump's pursuit of the presidency and he could stick in long enough, stick around long enough for Florida, which was his goal. Florida's got a lot of delegates. Florida really does matter.

But he realized that not only was he going to do badly in New Hampshire, but South Carolina as well. And, I'm sure, to British audiences, this has to be the strangest game of politics. We actually have to learn the states of America and know where everything is. But it's the way American politics is run. Yeah.

Now that he is out, do you think it benefits Nikki Haley or Donald Trump? He endorsed Donald Trump. That's a big deal. If his votes go to Donald Trump, I don't know how Nikki Haley can put together a majority. With Vivek Ramaswamy having also endorsed Trump and Chris Christie not endorsing anybody, I don't see where she gets the majority, which is what she now needs.

And you're not just talking about New Hampshire, you're talking about the country. New Hampshire is difficult. The country is impossible. If you can't put together 50 percent in New Hampshire, there's no way you can do it. across America.

There's always chaos around a failing presidential campaign. We learned from our colleague Adam Gabbett that the venue Ron DeSantis was meant to have an event in on Sunday only learned it wasn't happening because one of the staff was watching the news and he hadn't prepaid for the space, but they'll still be charging him anyway. His campaign was shedding people and moving things around. Do you think that even as late as this morning, Sunday morning, they still thought they were fighting a presidential campaign? While it's an interesting question for historians, in the end, Ron DeSantis has to be concerned about his own image, has to be concerned about how much money the campaign spends.

They've gone through all of their own money. The pack had bled money for weeks now. And at some point you just say enough is enough. What about Nikki Haley now? Do you think that she will be wondering, if there's a calculation to be made that it's better to drop out than to lose?

Or will she fight on in New Hampshire? And if she does, you're a numbers guy. What kind of number does she need to get out of New Hampshire to carry on her campaign and go all the way into South Carolina? Both of them are actually very simple questions. She has to stay in.

She's spent her entire political career on New Hampshire and this state, because independents can vote in the primary. This state gives her the best opportunity of any of the states that are coming up. Second is that she's been raising money at a very fast clip, as donors realize that she's the only thing standing between Donald Trump and the Republican nomination. And third, so much of the polling had her gaining on Trump up until, frankly, up until about a week ago. So when you look at each of these, there's no way that she's dropping out.

However, if she doesn't win on primary day, then she faces the same calculation as DeSantis. It makes no sense for her. if you can't win in New Hampshire, how are you going to win across the country when Trump is winning by 30 or 35 percent? In your view, Nikki Haley has to win. Anything less than a win, and she's done.

I can't imagine a candidate against a Trump juggernaut with how much money he has, how far ahead he is in every single state. If you don't win in New Hampshire and change the narrative completely, then there's no chance for her to flip it anyplace else. Well, Frank Luntz rightly mentioned that a big sign of the momentum for Donald Trump was this huge event he had on Saturday night in the main sports arena in downtown Manchester, easily dwarfing any campaign event by any other candidate in New Hampshire. And so, of course, I had to be there.

Oh my word, it is so cold in Manchester, New Hampshire. This is Saturday night. The big event in a way of the whole weekend is this rally for Donald Trump. And one of the things about a big Trump event is the access, and the queuing up outside happens hours before. So in these sub zero temperatures, there are lines of people outside trying to get in.

We've come in. We've just got in and we've come inside. what is the snack and sort of concession shop where people are getting some drinks and food before going into the event. It is a little bit warmer here and it is a bit quieter here. And we're going to try and talk to some Trump supporters about why they have braved these freezing temperatures to see their man.

My name is Brendan. I'm from Massachusetts. So tell me, why have you come out tonight? Because it is really cold. You had to brave the cold.

Why have you come here tonight? Because we love our president and we want him back. And so when you say our president, you're talking about, of course, Donald Trump. Right. And so you're wearing the hat saying make America great again.

What do you think Donald Trump could do in a second term, second term, that he didn't do in the first term? Close the border, take a lot of the power away from a lot of these elites, do something with the WHO. Hopefully, bring some peace back to everywhere in the world, which I think we're on track of doing. Peace through strength, you know, stopping that disaster in Ukraine. I think that Donald Trump is important to bring back, because we have weakness.

We have weak men. Democratic Party is full of weak men. And you need people that are strong. Donald Trump is strong. OK, so you think he's a peacemaker, a man who brings peace.

And he's got a lot of trouble with court cases at the moment. How does that influence your vote, the way you feel about him? It only strengthens it because it's political, it's communist, it's Soviet Union style. It's a farce. The man is innocent.

The man should be president. The man won the last time. They stole the election. And, you know, as far as I'm concerned, this only makes things, it only makes you want to vote for him more. My name is Maria Zielinski.

I live in Nashville, New Hampshire. Very good. I'm 22.. I voted Democratic. before.

I'm trying, I want to see if maybe, things have been going so well the past four years, so I'm trying to see if maybe he can offer a better solution for us. So you might actually become a Trump voter, depending on what you hear tonight. Yes, yes. And so what is it? you need to hear from him to persuade you to cross that line?

The same thing he was saying is inflation, gas prices, food prices, just all in all, a change to making things better than what they are now. Corn pot from Maine. Well, I got here at 9.30 this morning and I stood outside for five hours because I wanted to support the greatest president of all time. You are devoted to this man. Why are you so devoted to him?

Because he's devoted to us, because of what he has done for us for the last six years. I mean, this man could easily just sail off into the sunset and play golf and, you know, have a wonderful life. But instead, he's taking the slings and arrows for all of us right now and literally being indicted. You know, like they're attacking him day in day. So that's why I support him.

And when you say they, who's the? they? The swamp, the Democrats, the rhinos, I mean, the entire establishment. And what about this claim that he, if he gets back in, wants to be a dictator on day one? So he knows.

So let's get this right. He said day one dictator. What he meant by that is that he's going to go into the White House and he's going to reverse every Biden bull crap. He's going to close the border day one and he's going to drill baby drill. That's what he meant by day one dictator.

He didn't mean that he's going to all of a sudden turn into King John Little Rocket Man and be all pissed off. Jennifer Salem, New Hampshire. Personally, I vote for my pocket. I don't have any money right now. I'm sure I speak for the American people on that, that if Trump does get in, he'll fix the economy and he'll close the southern border.

And do you feel the economy was much better when he was president? I do. I do. Oil was about a dollar 20 per gallon or a dollar 40 somewhere around there. And now it's 369..

And you put that down to Trump not being there. I do. I. ever since Trump lost the election in 2020, everything's gone up food, car insurance, mortgages, or at least real estate taxes and all of that. So, across the board, I have things to lose.

So, coming to a Trump rally, you get marked as being a MAGA person. And I'm not that I like. I said, I vote my own way. I'm an independent thinker. And they don't like.

people don't like that. So this is your first time coming to a Trump event? Yes. Excited about it? I am.

President Donald J. Trump.

Thank you very much, New Hampshire.

Since 2016,, you and I have been in this battle side by side, taking on the entire corrupt.

Nikki Haley. I know her well.

The radical Democrats are supporting Nikki Haley for one reason, because they know she's.

What, indeed, is just always surreal, startling, dark, disturbing. There is nothing like a Donald Trump campaign rally. And certainly, if you want to understand him and his supporters, you should come to one of these. Sadly, these days, if you want to understand America, probably, you should come. They really are like nothing else.

And it is a show. It's theater. It's a spectacle. It's a circus. Today, we were a bit closer than you can sometimes get.

You're able to appreciate some of the dynamics. There's Trump doing his bit, the classical carnival barker, praising dictators, talking about straightening the free press. But maybe equally important are all the other theatrics. He gets these guests on stage to lavish him with praise. And then he has a nod and a wink with the audience that, you know, he was only doing it because he needs their vote coming up in South Carolina.

There are light notes and dark notes. There's praise for these people who follow him around the country and attend dozens of rallies and everybody cheers. Isn't that lovely? But then, at another moment, there's a protester who is kind of manhandled and it gets ugly and nasty for a moment. And the crowd loves that.

Yeah. When that happens. That's a sort of moment of boxing or wrestling. It lets out the dark impulses. Again, the crowd can unify against the enemy within, against the other who's ejected.

And of course, they also do that regularly versus the media as well. We're at the back of that auditorium. Oh, yeah. We're part of the show. We are part of the show.

He's still using phrases like fake news and enemy of the people, and the crowd jeers and boos. But I think, sometimes a little knowingly, with a twinkle in their eye, they realize this is a pantomime. This is a performance. We're part of it. And they are too.

Yeah. And he's got his greatest hits, which he does again and again. Too cold to carry on talking about this, David, but you're going to go and file and write about it. But it's a phenomenon.

It's Sunday night and we are in the New Hampshire town of Exeter, in the very big parking lot for the town's main high school. Big part of all election campaigns in America is the rally in the high school gym. And we're going to see one of those. It's a rally for the last one standing. Now that Ron DeSantis is out of the Republican race, only Nikki Haley is left as a challenger to Donald Trump.

And this is going to be a big rally for Nikki Haley and a big moment for her and for her campaign. She's pulling in the celebrity names among the speakers tonight will be Judge Judy. We're going to go inside.

Nicole Stank and I live in Newmarket. You've already made up your mind. You're a supporter of hers. Oh, yeah. What is it about you?

like the potential for her to be the first woman president? She's got so much more experience with dealing with a lot of problems that this country has. And I think she has really good ways to fix it. And I just don't want Trump. I think he's too.

He had a time and a place. And I think that is over. We live in Exeter. Dennis Wagner. And why have you come out here?

It's a cold night. Why have you come here tonight to support Haley? And she's she needs support. We need to do something to put down that man. And that's why we're here to vote for her and push her on.

Well, when you say that, man, who are you talking? I'm talking about Trump. And why is it? you feel it's so important for him? He's too bad for the country.

He's a potential dictator. And we need to move him on. I said that because I voted for him the first time. One of the biggest mistakes I ever made. Wow.

And you never let him forget it, you say, that's the wife chipping in there. Larissa Modisette, and I'm from Exeter, New Hampshire. This is your hometown. Yes, it is. And have you made up your mind that you are going to be voting for her on Tuesday?

Pretty much. Yeah. Yeah. And are you normally, ordinarily, a Republican voter here in New Hampshire? Yes.

And is it more about supporting her or opposing him? Supporting her. I actually think some of his policies are good. I think that he's way too confrontational and he says stupid stuff all the time. And it just, it's kind of, it's embarrassing.

And how much do you think she has taken the fight to him and made the point you've just made about him? Some people think that she's backed off a little too much. What's your view? I don't think she's done enough yet, personally. That's my opinion.

And, you know, I just hope, I hope it goes well for her in New Hampshire. Yeah. And would you like to see her tonight? We're about to hear her. Would you like to hear her be more aggressive against Donald Trump than she's been so far?

I mean, yes, I would. I think that would be great. I don't know if she's trying to angle for maybe a vice presidency. And she's kind of not being hard on him for that. Because obviously, I think some people have been hard on him, and they're probably not, he doesn't play well with others who don't get along with him, you know, so.

We live in Lee, New Hampshire, and my name is Alex Yushkin, but actually we are not voters. You're not a voter in New Hampshire? No, we are not citizens. That's why we can't vote for Nikki Hale. But if we were, we would definitely vote for her, because she is the best candidate.

this year. This is very important that she supports Ukraine. And we need to defeat Putin. Are you yourself from Ukraine? No, I am from Russia.

But we stay with Ukraine. And she is now the only candidate who is actually supporting the policy of helping Ukraine. Yeah. That's why we are here. That's why we want to say that we are with her.

And even if we can't vote, we definitely will talk to people and say that she is the best candidate and we will make a donation.

I have kids, I have grandchildren, and I have a great-grandchild. And I'm concerned for the future of America.

Don't fix Democrat chaos with Republican chaos. We have to move forward with a new generational conservative leader. That's Nikki!

The majority of Americans disprove of Trump and Biden.

So also here at the Nikki Haley event is the Guardian's senior political correspondent, Lauren Gambino. Lauren, you've been following her around everywhere. Did you see anything different in this last event at Exeter? This event felt a little rowdier, a little more excitement, some energy that I think we've been building towards, but we weren't sure if we'd get there. I still don't know if it's enough, but it certainly felt like there was some excitement.

People in the room were very excited to see her. She didn't seem to me as if she changed her stump speech that much. I thought maybe she would really adjust it for the fact that it's now this two-person race. It didn't really change much. No, she is someone who sticks to her stump speech.

She did come out, she acknowledged, you know, do you hear that sound, all the cheering, that it's a two-person race now, and she sounded pretty pleased with herself for having knocked Ron DeSantis out of the race. But it didn't change much about what she was pitching to voters, I think, here in the final days. Some people are saying they really wanted to go for the jugular on Donald Trump. She didn't really do that just then. What is it, do you think, that's holding her back from doing that?

I think she's trying to do the impossible, which is both appeal to these voters who do not like Donald Trump, don't want to vote for him again, or never voted for him and voted for Joe Biden, while also not alienating those who are looking for an alternative. Maybe they supported Ron DeSantis, maybe they were looking at Chris Christie or any of the others that have dropped out. And so she's trying to appeal to both of them. I just don't know if you can do that. It's just a really big chasm between these two groups of voters.

The other thing, I can't quite put my finger on, but there's usually a New Hampshire, when it's the eve of poll, I mean, this is, we're talking now Sunday night, it's not quite the last 24 hours, but it's getting there. Sometimes you see candidates who are straining. every sinew, they get hoarse, someone's bringing kind of a hot drink up to them, they look exhausted, their eyes are bugging out because they are just desperately squeezing every last vote. I didn't get that kind of desperation from her. Am I wrong about that?

You know, I think we heard it from the governor of New Hampshire, Chris, and you knew he came out, his voice was raspy, and he said, he's done with Donald Trump, let's vote for Nikki Haley. But she didn't seem to have that kind of urgency. It was very much, every hit or swipe I guess she took at Trump, she also turned it around and hit Joe Biden as well, so it felt very this and that. I don't know, I agree, I didn't feel the urgency. Last thing, we don't do predictions in our business, we've all learned not to, after what happened in 2016,, but you've been covering her, covering what's going on in this state, what's your feel as we go into the last round?

I think we are going to, well, actually, I feel comfortable saying she will come in second because, as we've mentioned, it's a two-person race. She will definitely get that second place victory she's been seeking, but I think we've got to see, if she can just hold Trump under 50% in this state, I think she'll count that as a win, say, I've got this, I can build momentum over the next month riding into South Carolina. But man, if Trump comes in, dominates in the suburbs, runs up the score, I just don't see what her rationale is for staying in. We don't have long to find out. Thanks, Lauren, see you on the trail.

And I don't know whether it's just her personality, her temperament, or was it a political calculation that she wants to not burn her bridges with the MAGA world, she wants to stay in with the Trump people, maybe for some future that she's planning. But for whatever reason, she just didn't go for it. She didn't go for the jugular. She and the others never really made the case, reaching deep into the Republican sort of gut and say, you don't wanna be with this guy. If you're the party of law and order, you don't wanna be with a guy who's on trial everywhere.

He's not a believer in American democracy. They never really went for that. And as a result, the bond he has, Donald Trump, is so strong that it hasn't been broken. And that's why you'd have to say, you're looking at these last polls, you know, it would be an upset for the ages if somehow he didn't win the nomination of the Republican Party. We'll be back first thing Wednesday morning, London time, with all the results, making sense of them, telling the story of what happened here in New Hampshire.

But for now, it's goodbye. The producer is Daniel Stevens, the executive producer for this episode, Jagruti Dhave. I'm Jonathan Friedland. Thanks, as always, for listening.

This is The Guardian.

Discover vibrant vegan dishes with me, Mira Soda, hearty comfort foods with Nigel Slater, bold flavors with Yota Motelenghi, and many more tasty offerings from expert Guardian cooks. Experience the ultimate cooking app, Feast, today. Download now and enjoy a 14-day free trial. Terms and conditions apply.