The Trump-Mike Johnson-MTG Love Triangle

And Trump wows Fox News by ordering chick-fil-a.

But first, voters keep saying their top issue is high prices. And we got an economic report this week that says inflation might be sticking around longer than we hope. New consumer price index data shows prices rising more quickly than expected, driven mostly by the cost of housing and gas. Donald Trump celebrated the news with a post that reads Inflation is back and raging. The Fed will never be able to credibly lower interest rates because they want to protect the worst president in the history of the untied states.

Untied states. President Joe Biden responded to the news at a press event, where he also laid out the choice in the election between him and Trump. On the economy, let's take a listen. Well, I do stand by my prediction that before the year is out, there'll be a rate cut. This may delay it a month or so. I'm not sure of that.

We don't know what the Fed is going to do for certain, but look, we have dramatically reduced inflation from 9 down close to 3. We're in a situation where we're better situated than we were when we took office, where inflation was skyrocketing. And we have a plan to deal with it. Whereas the opposition, my opposition, talks about two things.

They just want to cut taxes for the wealthy and raise taxes on other people. So it seems like both Biden and Trump are very focused on what the Fed decides to do between now and November. What's your sense of the politics around these inflation reports and potential rate cuts?

They've made real progress. We'd like it to be coming down faster, but lower the prices, the better things are for the president. The potential rate cut is really interesting because it's one of the few variables in this campaign between two people who just ran against each other four years ago. It's this one thing that's standing out there, which is, if the Fed were to cut rates, that would be a sign that the president has succeeded in slowing inflation to a level where the Fed felt comfortable doing that. So that's positive news for the President.

And then a rate cut would be a boost to the economy, something the market's anticipating it would lower costs for borrowers. For people who want to make it easier to buy a house, buy a car, borrow money to start a business, it would be a validation and it would be good for the president. The sooner that happens, the longer the time is between the rate cut and the election for the benefits of that boost to help. If the Fed decides not to do that, that will be seen by the markets, by the press, a message amplified by Trump and the Republicans.

The president has not succeeded in lowering inflation sufficiently and the economy. It will remain hard and frustrating and painful. To buy a house, buy a car, borrow money, start a business. And that would be, on its face, good for Trump. So you see this? I don't really understand Trump's message about why he can't like the economics and financial sense and understand the economy. In Trump's truth there, or let alone his spelling, are questionable. But from a pure point of view, is that a rate?

And originally, I think economists forecasted like three rate cuts between now and November. Now they're thinking one to two. Originally they were hoping June, July, now they're thinking maybe September. But yeah, there's both the symbolic effects.

And I think there's the real effects for people, right? Mortgage rates are around over 7 right now if you want to buy a car, if you want to take out a loan. Credit card rate, interest rates, it's just they're all very high. I'm wondering what happens when Trump promises to fire Jerome Powell and replace him with someone who will immediately cut interest rates.

Yeah, I mean, that is.

I mean, that's a I see that coming. Yes, it would be against norms, for sure, but could totally see it.

Joe Biden He won't do anything about Jerome Powell, Jerome Powell won't cut rates, and he's just sitting there letting inflation do it. You put me in there, I'll fire his ass. On the first day, put in someone who's going to cut your interest rates.

I mean.

But Trump standing in Mar-a-Lago and telling his rich friends that? A fundraiser where people paid nearly a million dollars a ticket that he was going to cut their taxes. And then those rich goons applauded him. If that moment had been caught on video, it would have been the greatest political gaffe in American history, hands down, right?

Ron Klain, who I know we'll talk about later, once told me we were working together on a political matter. Candidate did something, and when I briefed Ron on what it was, he told me. That would be an a-plus answer to how to lose a presidential election. What Trump did is, if you were just trying to figure out the best way to not be president, it would be to do exactly that. And that's a story that Biden has to tell. This is who Trump wants to help. And we've seen in polling that among working class voters of all races, the voters that Biden has been struggling with since 2020. Their biggest concern about Trump is he's going to cut taxes for rich people.

And you know what Trump's going to do that? Because next year, at the end of 2025, the $2 trillion tax cut that overwhelmingly benefited corporations and the wealthy is set to expire. Joe Biden will let it expire. Donald Trump doesn't just want to renew it, he wants to make it more friendly to corporations, make the rate even lower.

And framing the economy around that conversation about who Biden's going to fight for and who Trump's going to fight for is the absolute best way to tell. And I thought, you can see, Biden is in campaign mode now, right? Jen and I talked about Jennifer Palmer, and I talked about this in the Univision interview. Is that he is laser focused on what the best political message is. Which is why he at a press conference with a Japanese prime minister. On a question on interest rates, he got to Trump's tax plan, and so he knows that.

On extending a Trump tax cut that will give everyone who makes over a million dollars a $50,000 tax cut. That's what that would mean for people making over a million dollars, $50,000. If you extend the Trump tax cuts. And if you're in the bottom quarter of the income brackets, you would get about a hundred dollars as a tax cut.

That's what Donald Trump wants to do. That's a plan. And like you said, that is not like we got to figure out what the makeup of Congress is and all this kind of stuff.

Like, the tax cuts are expiring, so something has to happen. If he's president, that's what he wants to do. And then to Biden's reference about he wants to raise taxes on everyone else. That is almost surely a reference to Trump's proposed tariffs, which have not gotten nearly enough coverage because people are like tariffs. Boring where the eyes glaze over, right?

Trump, first of all, has enormous power as president to slap tariffs on goods, on foreign goods, um, without congressional approval, he can just do that. That's a power that presidents have. And he wants to propose 10 across the board tariffs on all imported goods from anywhere. He wants to do 60 tariff on imports from China in a hundred percent tariff on foreign cars.

So a center for American Progress crunched the numbers on this. This would mean a $1,500 tax increase for the typical household because of Trump's tariffs. And these are just something he could do on his own. So now, imagine an economic plan from the economic genius Donald Trump that everyone gives so much credit for in the economy. Who wants to give millionaires a $50,000 tax cut and raise your taxes $1,500? And that's just a start.

There's a whole bunch of other economic plans that are terrible, too, you can see today. He, um, posted another video on his fake Twitter, saying, Uh, Joe Biden's been saying I'm going to terminate the Affordable Care Act, and I'm not going to terminate the Affordable Care Act. I'm going to make it better. Of course, Trump did say he would terminate the Affordable Care Act, did say repeal it, tried to repeal it when he was president. Didn't have a replacement, didn't want to make it better.

And now, because he's looking at the polling a lot more on everything, uh, in this race, he, and just like abortion, now, you can tell he's scared.

Cause it's going to be very clearly what they have found in their research to be the best way to make it stick.

Uh, he then said that the president is not running for Congress. I think it's kind of a fool's errand. I think that it also doesn't get covered that much. Because, look, it's a fucking bridge, and how interesting is the bridge? It's a little interesting, but it's not a lot interesting.

No argument for me there, Ron. I want to know who the I want to know the idiot was, who's like, why isn't he talking about infrastructure more? Who is that person, I mean?

Um, so. Ron later told Politico that he's fully aligned with the White House. As quote, the president's economic messaging has been more middle-class oriented and less infrastructure centric since the state of the Union. I completely agree with Ron there, I'm sure that's what Ron had been referring to before when he was talking in the Politico event. Uh, and ultimately, this is just, you know, chum for the D.C. press. But I do think it illuminates a larger debate about, and we've talked about this before. How much Biden should focus on selling his economic accomplishments versus driving the economic contrast between him and Trump.

Um, what are your thoughts? I know where I stand, you're, you're, you're.

Ron is a hundred percent right about the challenge of trying to drive a message to the free press. With Bridges, right? It's like, I understand how the white I've, I have been. I've sat in many meetings trying to figure out what kind of events you're going to do in the White House. And one of the things the press likes is a good visual, and you want a good visual, a bridge, and so you, that's how you end up in front of bridges a lot. The challenge of it is, obviously, is the press covers what is going to happen or what is happening in that moment, not what happened in the past.

So when you say last year, during, I guess two years now, two years ago. During the bipartisan infrastructure bill, we passed money for this bridge. And that money is arriving today in the form of a giant check or whatever like, that's just not going to drive coverage. So Ron is a hundred percent right about that. I think he's also right. That infrastructure is one of those issues that voters tell pollsters they care about, but it doesn't drive vote choice, right? Like everyone wants better roads, better bridges, better reports.

They hate potholes. All of that is true, it is not. I've never seen it be one of those issues that overcomes concerns on other issues. Right? Where you're like, well, you know, the cost of milk is really high, but on my trip to the to buy the expensive milk, I got to cross this bridge, right? It's not like.

That doesn't really work that way, however. And I, you know, a lot in 2022. We had a lot of conversations about, like the Dems still hashtag, Dems deliver message, and why. That was in how elections about the future, not the past. And voters don't reelect you because of what you did, they reelect you because of what they think you're going to do for them.

Next, I think there was one. It is slightly different for Biden and I think there was an argument for. I think this is primarily through paid messaging for the reasons I just said that he has to lay a foundation of some of the things that he has done. Because all of the polling shows that huge swaths of the electorate, including people who say they're planning on voting for Joe Biden, are completely unaware of a lot of his record of accomplishment. And he there's. It's simply foundational work that you're going to have to do to build a level of credibility. To talk about what you're going to do next. Because of the things you've done in the past. And also to be able to have a critique against Trump, right?

It's going to be hard to drive that tax message if people think you've done nothing on the economy over the last three years. And so, in the best, the best issue. And all the polling is is taking on Big Pharma to get Medicare to have lower prescription drugs, $35 capital and insulin. Like that sort of stuff is that you've, you've had fights, you won those fights against special interests. You accomplished something that lowers costs, which is evidence that you can do, and it gives you credibility to drive that message against Trump.

So what I would say is when he's out there doing events that are designed to be reach voters via the press. It's got to have to be something at some level of contrast and conflict, right? That we'll get it. Or something buzzy enough to get attention, like the student loan announcement you guys talked about on Tuesday. But in the advertising, I do think you want to lay down. Targeted at Biden 2020 voters a What, what he's done, right, you can do it. In contrast to what Trump did not do, Biden did X, Trump did Y, Biden did X, Trump failed to do Y.

But there, I do think there's work, there's educational work that still needs to be done with our voters. That will help drive the message later on. I think that's right.

And I think the balance needs to be way more on the contrast with Trump and what's the agenda going forward than what you've already done? And of course, I'm sure it's all research based if the campaign's thinking about this. But like, what you wouldn't want is it to come from? You know, the bosses? Feeling annoyed that he's not getting enough credit for everything he did, which is a lot, this is a lot and some great stuff. But like the reality is, he has to frame, the whole election, has to be a choice between him and Donald Trump, right? That's the number one task.

And so I do feel like you have to drive the economic contrast with Donald Trump every single day. And in a way, you have to relitigate the story of where we've been and where we are and where we need to go. Because right now, Donald Trump still has an advantage there. So, like, you know, you can imagine Biden saying, Look, we've come a long way since. Donald Trump mismanaged a pandemic that crashed the economy and sent inflation soaring. But even though the economy's growing and corporations are making record profits, they won't reduce prices. And guess what?

Donald Trump wants to give those corporations that refuse to lower prices another $3 trillion in tax cuts, and then he wants to make you pay more. And you know what I want to do, I want to keep fighting, to keep lowering prices, keep lowering inflation, keep helping you. And like, that's the difference.

And by the way, if you send me back to the White House and you give me a bigger Democratic Congress. I'll be able to lower prices even more, and I'll be able to lower costs even more. And he won't, you know, like, I think it's just got to be that, it's got to sort of tell the whole story.

Union leaders, workers, families that benefit that that is going to be true and all that. All the people who did ads in 2022 and 2023 said that those are the ads always focus group the best. I also think it's probably fair to say that it's probably a mistake to ever run a single ad. That's a straight positive.

It should probably be all. If you got 30 seconds, 15 on what Biden did, 15 on what Trump would do, didn't do, did wrong, right? you got 60, 30, 30, right? Or even if it's 1545 and. But so there needs to be contrast everywhere.

But I still think there has to be some. We just have to tell people some things that Biden did to give them permission to come back. Right. Because if you think he's done nothing, you're not going to vote for him again.

All right, let's talk about what Trump's been up to this week. Our favorite criminal defendant, slash Republican nominee, is preparing for next week's hush money trial. It is Florida Beach Club where he's holding an event Friday morning with MAGA Mike Johnson, the speaker who thinks that Noah brought Dinos on the arc, according to USA. Today, the two men will talk about legislation, to quote. Elevate the issue of non-citizens voting in federal elections, which is not actually an issue since it's against the law.

It's a felony. And according to the right wing Heritage Foundation, this has only happened 24 times in the last 20 years. 24 instances of an undocumented immigrant voting in a federal election. That's what we're dealing with, because it's a felony. And if you are caught, it's not only a year in jail, but you probably get deported, so either, or you either get deported or you spend a year in jail.

The reporting suggests that the real reason for the event is that Trump wants everyone to know that he's standing by Mike Johnson. Despite the attempt by human clickbait Marjorie Taylor Green to oust him as speaker. Large margins, a big mad that Johnson worked with Democrats to keep the government open. And she's threatened to trigger a motion to vacate if he lets the House vote on Ukraine funding. Or pass a reauthorization of something known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which allows the government to spy on the communications of foreigners outside the United States who might pose a national security threat to America? Trump also doesn't want that to pass because he thinks this is the part of the law that was used to spy on his campaign in 2016. Which isn't true. He's confusing 702 with another part of the surveillance law, which he's also done before he. He confused this thing while he was president once before, had to issue a follow-up statement. Ended up signing the Pfizer reauthorization law because he realized that he had fucked up.

And now, a couple of years later, he's doing it again. These are the people, Dan, that we want in charge of our government, these are the people.

He likes to have leverage over people. So by making Mike Johnson come down to Mar-a-Lago and appear at this ridiculous event and bend the knee to Trump, Trump has leverage on him for as long as he needs it. Right. Whether it's keeping people in line through this election, he needs them to. To spin up another cockamamie investigation of someone in the Biden family, they can do that.

When if Trump wins and Mike Johnson survives long enough to be speaker of the House in that under that presidency? He's got leverage on them there. And he wants, he wants Mike Johnson to know that he controls his fate. And this will do that now. I will also say I would pay money to hear the conversation between these two banks. I think it's possible no one has ever had less in common than these two.

Like Mike, Pence was like a frat boy compared to Mike Johnson.

So I think they'll save Mike Johnson for him. Um, so, yeah.

Uh, unless you know. It seems like if if he does put Ukraine up for a vote, then the Democrats will save him. But if the Democrats save him, I don't. I don't. I think if the Democrats save him and he remained speaker, I could see him remaining speaker through November. Because Trump doesn't want him to leave. And then the and then Republicans don't have another choice. And they don't want the headache of going through that bullshit again with 30,000 votes or whatever. Um, but I can't imagine him then, at that point, staying, uh, into 2025. I mean, it's worth noting he seems particularly bad at his job and lost, sort of a like a sad, lost puppy.

I mean, he's basically.

Uh, he's King Ralph. Basically, I think it's gonna be the way you'd put it, I mean, it, just it. Two things I think are likely to happen if Republic, if Trump wins, maybe Trump keeps them, who knows? Um, but they'll probably also change the rules the next time around, too.

That doesn't mean we can't make that case over the next nine months, but we haven't that. People are not dialed into what is happening in Congress. I think it's possible that, and this is where Trump's campaigns instincts are correct. That if another speaker got tossed and we had another, you know, three week period with no speaker and all these votes like that. Now people are more focused on the election that could have an impact, but on the current trajectory, I'm just not sure. You sort of need to. People need to feel the pain of this chaos and they haven't felt that yet, and that can come. They avoided a government shutdown, they avoided default in the past.

Those are the sort of things where people like, wake up and see what happens. There's not that sort of cliff or something, you know? A looming tax raise if they don't pass this or something important expiring, it's just embarrassing, chaos and opportunity cost. And we have to work a little bit harder, I think, to get the public to see that.

One of the problems is there's a concern that when the government spies on foreigners communications, who they believe are national security threats. That sometimes, if those foreigners are communicating with Americans, then American citizens communications can get swept up. And so they want some people want more protections, other people say that it's sort of hard to design these protections. It gets into the weeds. But anyway, that's some of the reasons that, like some progressive Democrats are worried about FISA, that's not the reason that Republicans are worried.

Republicans are just like, Oh, Donald Trump mistakenly thinks that this is a tool that was used to spy on his campaign. And we're just going to go all in on believing it, that's it.

They want to elevate Green Party candidate Jill Stein and target young people and progressives with ads that tout Biden's record on domestic oil production, which is now at a record high. And they're also thinking about running ads in Dearborn, Michigan, and other heavily Muslim and Arab American areas. Thanking Joe Biden for standing with Israel. Very cynical, very cynical, also potentially very smart. How much does this strategy concern you, Dan, and are you surprised they're admitting it to the New York?

This is a lot of what some Trump people and the Russians did in 2016.

This is why Jared Kushner helped Kanye West get on the ballot in 2020. Oh, yeah, I forgot about that. wow.

Just like, what a world where Kanye West ran for president at the urging of the president's son-in-law. And it's barely a foot.

Completely memory hold it. Yes, I mean voters, and I do this for a living.

Yes, voters also clearly didn't care that much either. But he was on the ballot in Wisconsin. I think that's how fucking insane that was. He didn't do very well for the record. No, he didn't.

It is not surprising that they told everyone. Because one of the true hallmarks of the Trump era is you do all your dirt in public, you announce your crimes. You read everyone in your plans. You just be as public as humanly possible as they always are, of course, they told The New York Times. Because they want to seem really smart and they want to raise more money for this. It's the other thing, right, the fact that....

One of the things this story points out is.

And I did not know this that one of Jill Stein's biggest supporters in 2016 was a major Trump donor. I didn't know that either. Yeah, that until I....

Yeah, and we talked a lot, especially when Liz Smith, who's working on the third-party stuff for the DNC, was on the podcast a few weeks ago. That Tim Mellon, who's one of the biggest donors to Trump's Super Pac, is also the biggest donor to RFK Jr's Super PAC. We know what's going on here. But yeah, it's very, very, very concerning, in part because this is an election where the electorate is very open to such appeals, right?

Because of how they feel about the choice they have, about how they feel about both parties, about how they feel about politics. Generally. Is that this is a very target-rich environment for people who want to enact this strategy. Steve Bannon is actually on the record, speaking of people who like to do all their dirt in public.

There's also a couple other interesting parts of the piece that the Trump team polling shows that RFK Jr pulls more votes from Biden than Trump, which we had suspected and seen in some public polling, but confirmed by the Trump team polling. And it's especially true among Latino voters. Did you see that in Arizona, they have Biden beating Trump among Latino voters in a two-way in Arizona? But when it's the full ballot, then Trump is winning among Latino voters by a good margin.

There's a poll of RFK Jr. Latino.

I know it's fun to talk about this piece and also scary. But I think that the Trump people and Bannon and all the rest of the idiots have given Democrats like a lot of fodder. With this piece. To strengthen the argument that Liz and other people are making about these third party candidates. Because it's one thing to say, you know, you got to vote for Joe Biden. Don't go third party because we got to stand up to Donald Trump. Blah, blah, blah. And it's a different thing. And I think it's a little more effective to say, Donald Trump, Donald Trump believes that a vote for anyone but Biden is a vote for Donald Trump. Donald Trump wants you to vote third party so he can win, that's what his campaign thinks they can win with. And so that every single criticism of Joe Biden. All they need to do is peel votes away from Joe Biden. To keep people home, to get people voting for third party candidates.

And Donald Trump thinks that's what's going to get him to win, and so I do think that that's helpful. And I wonder if this Trump war, like, do you think the Democrats can cause any similar mischief with the third party candidates? With elevating anyone like, like Trump is, I mean, it's different, right? Because it's, I mean, I could give you 10 ideas on how to do that right now.

Like, absolutely, you think that, you think that that Biden should praise Trump for making the vaccines, for forgetting the vaccine. Well, no, I would not do that, but.

By, you know, like fake robocalls and stuff like that, but there's you can very clearly have an effort. Which highlights elements of RFK Jr's record on vaccines on the border, on what he said about January 6. To a certain set of voters, right? You could very clearly find voters. It's pretty easy to find them on Facebook and elsewhere, people who patronize certain anti-vax sites, who follow certain anti-vax influencers and target them with messages. About our. Thanking RFK Jr. for standing up against Big Pharma when even Trump wanted to push the vaccine. You can, you can, like there is a. There's no reason why Democrats can't also try to drive some voters into RFK Jr's game.

Now that is more challenging because, as we sit here today, a larger portion of Biden's coalition from 2020 is wandering than Trump's right. You know, in that New York Times Siena poll, I think the numbers are a little extreme. Biden's getting, I think, like, 85 of his vote, and Trump's getting 97 of his. It's probably Trump has an advantage, but it's maybe not that large. But so there's just more potential disinfected Democrats who can move, and having Jill Stein is helpful there.

But there's no reason why Democrats should not be trying to peel off.

And ideally, maybe for Biden, maybe some of them just stay home when we're going to vote for Trump or RFK Jr. But I think those the Biden 2020 voters that were thinking about drifting are the ones that you're going to want to spend most of the time on. And the way you do that is you just.

Because I think that if you were trying to convince someone the day before the election who was thinking of voting third party, you'd do that right. You'd be like, if you really don't like Trump, then voting third party is a really good way to make him president.

Okay, before we go, we've got to talk about the biggest story of the week, one that got wall to wall coverage on the country's most popular cable channel. Donald Trump's visit to Chick-fil-A in Atlanta on Wednesday, where he put on a true masterclass in retail politics. Here's Fox News anchor Martha McCallum and guest Clay Travis struggling to contain themselves.

You know what, clay hold on? We're going to show a little bit from Donald Trump buying everybody milkshakes and chicken at Chick-fil-a watch.

Although more people think that Biden is likable, he's at 57, Trump at 37. I guess they weren't at the chick-fil-a.

Not even his fellow nazis. No one got a milkshake.

Also, Joe Biden eats ice cream bad, Donald Trump buys milkshakes good.

It's just like.

It's just wild and without even blinking, no one's like, Well, no one's trying to square the circle between the anti-straw, anti-Joe Biden. ice cream thing. To Donald Trump is not only not Hitler, he's a great, kind, compassionate leader because he buys milkshakes.

Just wild, just amazing.

If he does something really kind and unusually wonderful to someone, yeah, maybe we'd talk about it. But I don't think any of us could ever get ourselves to that point. And Fox News with a straight face, it was like the number one story on Fox all day long. It was like, headline after headline after headline, every host came up and talked about the fucking milkshakes.

But, like, I'm sorry, that is Donald Trump at his best. Buying milkshakes?

They're trying to neutralize the weaknesses, they're trying to play up the strengths. It's a real campaign, it's a real campaign, and it's a real campaign, despite the candidate that they have.

Because on his best days, he's still a freaking goober. But yeah, it's going to be tough.

Yeah, I mean, it's just wild. But look, I think the takeaway on the campaign thing is, I think they are running a totally competent campaign thus far. And it is light years better than the ones before. But as we stand here today, on April 11th, the campaign that Joe Biden is running is light years better than the one Trump is running.

That is my take as we sit here. But Trump will not lose. I very much agree with that. Trump will not lose this campaign on his own. We will have to beat him, is, I think, what his campaign has set afloat.

We saw the night of the New Hampshire primary, we started losing it on Nikki Haley, which is, I think the Biden campaign very much understands, which is why they're trying to continue. To get under his skin is not just a voter strategy, but a strategy to have Donald Trump become his famously undisciplined self again. All right, few quick housekeeping notes before we go. If, like us, you're following the news about this horrendous Arizona abortion law and the mess that Donald Trump has gotten himself into with the whole let the States decide thing.

Check out this week's episode of Hysteria. Erin and Alyssa are all over the story and all the other GOP attacks on women's health and freedom. Hysteria is fantastic. Follow it wherever you get your podcasts. Also, Erin is going to be joining Dan and Tommy and Me for our upcoming live show right here in L.A. on April 21st at the L.A. Times Festival of Books.

Come hang out and stress about the news with us and learn about our new book, Democracy, or else, How to Save America in 10 easy steps. You can learn more and get tickets at Crooked..com Slash events. What a fun Sunday we'll have. Look, I love books, I love podcasting.

I love politics. What more could I ask for? And we get a Dan Pfeiffer appearance right here in L.A.

That's what the public is going to want, but yeah, I will also be there.

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