How would a possible third indictment affect Trump’s 2024 run?

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I didn't know practically what a subpoena was and grand juries and all of this. Now I'm like, becoming an expert.

It would be the former president's third criminal indictment to date, and it might not be his last. It all adds up to an unnerving sense of déjà vu. And we know how this plays out. First, Trump says he's a victim that the deep state, the establishment, are out to get him because he's the true champion of the people. Then Trump's fellow Republicans, including those seeking to beat him for the party's presidential nomination, are left tongue-tied for fear of upsetting the Trump base.

President Trump went up in the polls and was actually surpassing President Biden for re-election. So what do they do now? Go after their number one opponent?

But how much is too much? Is there a moment when the pile of indictments grows too large even for Donald Trump and his voters? And if Republicans do decide, Trump is too badly damaged to be the nominee next year, where might they turn? Instead? I'm Jonathan Friedland, columnist at The Guardian, and this is Politics Weekly American.

If you had asked me or any other political observer, probably early on after Trump left office, which offence should the prosecutors be pursuing? With the greatest intensity? It would have been January 6th and the attempt to stop the peaceful transfer of power.

Larry Sabato is the director of the Centre for Politics at the University of Virginia, and he's a longtime observer of the presidential political scene.

This would not have been the order that we would have suggested in Trump's indictments. I'm not saying that the other cases aren't serious, I certainly believe the documents case is serious. But to many Americans, non-democrats, Democrats are upset about all, understandably, and many independents are. But if you're trying to reach Republicans and conservative-leaning independents, bringing up Trump's private life? And that's really what one of the cases was about, more than anything else. And the documents case, which I've heard them say. Well, he was president, he had a right to these, he's already known these secrets, there's nothing wrong with his taking those.

So what you're saying here is fascinating, which is, yes, there is a kind of groundhog day feeling about these. And that means these lesser charges have to some extent, inured Americans to the potency of this most or more serious charge.

Absolutely, you had people's attention. At the moment of the first indictment, that was the time to present them with evidence of serious crimes. Again. I'm not defending at all what Trump did in hiding the payment to the woman involved. I'm certainly not defending the civil case or defending him in the civil case involving the sexual assault on the woman.

So let's just drill down into exactly what's there. As you and I speak, the indictment hasn't come. All we have, as you and I talk, is....

Former President Donald Trump has released a statement on social media saying that he has received a letter from special Counsel Jack Smith telling him that he is the target of an investigation by a Washington D.

But just talk us through what are or were the tactics that Donald Trump and his allies used to try and prevent him losing power in 2020? To try and stave off defeat? People know famously about the rallying supporters to come to Washington and march on the Capitol and the scenes that that produced on January 6th. But just talk us through two or three of the other things. That could, in the end, form part of this indictment, which constitute his attempt to overturn the 2020 election.

Yes, at the time, of course, the quote rally, which became an absolute riot, outrageous riot, that was the public part. We didn't fully know what had been going on behind the scenes, we heard tell of it. And some of the phony electoral slates were in fact sent to D..C.

And we should just say, as you say, that the Michigan Attorney General has announced felony charges against 16 Republicans. They weren't the duly elected and qualified electors.

And each of the defendants knew it.

They carried out these actions with the hope and belief that the electoral votes of Michigan's 2020 election would be awarded to the candidate of their choosing instead of the candidate that Michigan voters actually chose.

Remember the people outside the Capitol? The insurrection was all about pressuring or forcing our elected senators and House of Representatives members to vote in the phony slates, rather than the real slates. And they had the potential to do so. They invaded the Capitol. They ended up stopping the process for hours, to Congress's credit and to Vice President Pence's credit. They came back in the wee hours and finished the process and did what constitutionally they were supposed to do.

So any one of these things could form part of the case against him, just to go through them. We talked about the assembling of slates of so-called fake electors. We know famously about pressuring state officials to block or delay the announcement of victory for Joe Biden. You know that phone call that we talked about on this podcast at the time? Where Donald Trump is heard talking to officials in Georgia saying, You know, find me the extra 11,000 votes I need.

The baggage that Trump is bringing to the Republican Party for the 2024 election is getting very heavy. And one would think that. Republicans who actually want to win and defeat Joe Biden, if in fact he ends up being the Democratic nominee in 2024, would be paying close attention and rethinking their commitment to Trump. I can't tell you what's going to happen a month from now, or six months from now when Iowa votes, but I can tell you. To this point, it has had virtually no impact, and the impact I've seen is actually to strengthen Donald Trump. Because for his legions of supporters who are absolutely convinced that the establishment is out to get him, including the legal establishment. And that this is all made up and that the 2020 election was phony and was full of vote fraud, this proves Trump's point in their mind.

So in conversations I've had on this podcast and just elsewhere, there was certainly that attitude about the indictment in March about hush money payments to Stormy Daniels, a adult performer. Which, again, if anything, it just helped Donald Trump in the way you said it saw his poll numbers go up and he could fundraise off it. Second one came down in June, when he was indicted on charges of keeping those top secret classified documents with him in his Mar-a-Lago resort charges under the Espionage Act. Now then, quite a lot of commentators, pundits said, Okay, this is going to be different. Because when you hear that he was holding onto military secrets, maps and so on, that could help America's enemies. Well, that would be too much, people said. For Republican stomachs. In the end, it wasn't.

Yes, I'm convinced it could be a mass murder on Fifth Avenue and it would have effect on it. We've moved to the point where Donald Trump in the eyes of millions of Americans, and he got tens of millions of votes. Remember, Donald Trump, in their eyes, actually is above the law. That is as dangerous as it gets for a democracy and the rule of law.

And I suppose where I came to a similar conclusion was the fact that the incredibly detailed indictment on violations of the Espionage Act. If that didn't make Americans, or Republicans in particular, break from Donald Trump as it sounds, I don't see anything in, and we haven't yet got it. But a howard January, the 6th indictment, could hurt him even more. Because if you're a patriot, you're strong on national security. Hard keeping hoarding military secrets would be surely unconscionable. And yet Republicans have been quite happy to accept it. I'm thinking that anything that's in this January 6th document will be dismissible by Republicans. And partly because the House Select Committee on January, the 6th, their investigative committee, had the hearings, set out all the evidence. I put it to you, I mean, surely there could? There almost couldn't be anything more that, you know, Republicans would need to know to make a judgment, and they appear to have already sort of given Donald Trump a pass for it.

Well, that's a very good case, and it's probably true, I guess. I hold out hope that this being so serious, and in most people's eyes, much more serious than the documents case, which I consider serious and you consider serious. But lots of other people do not. And I said, on the day it happened, it wouldn't have any effect on Trump. That's not enough, but this ought to be enough. And Jack Smith, the special counsel, is a very able person who knows how to present a case like this, and he has a terrific team around it.

And I want to talk about the wider field, those other Republicans. In a moment. There's a very specific reason why we want to get to that with you. But just before we leave this, how have his Republican would-be rivals for the nomination reacted to this news of the indictment so far?

I actually talked to a couple, I'm not going to name some background, but their view was, and they tell me they're very anti-trump. By the way, they haven't said it publicly, so, you know, right away, it wasn't Chris Christie or Asyl Hutchinson I talked to. But they said, well, I think our people, our Republicans, are smart enough to see how badly this will hurt us in a general election. They're going to react and then I'm going to rush in and support them. You know, the old thing about, I'm the leader of the people, there go the people.

So let me raise this question that surfaced in the last few days. Even before this, news of a third indictment for Donald Trump had emerged. And that is of reports of dissatisfaction with the Republican field and dissatisfaction in very high places, one high place, in particular. Reports in the New York Times that the Murdoch empire Rupert Murdoch himself. He doesn't want to support Donald Trump for 2024, disenchanted with the man he had previously been backing, namely Ron DeSantis of Florida. And therefore, talk that the Murdoch media empire was looking for another standard bearer on the Republican side. And, according to this report, the Murdoch has privately said he wants the governor of Virginia, Glenn Youngkin, to enter the race. Now, Larry, you are famously associated with the University of Virginia.

Well, we had never heard of him a year and a half ago when he was elected governor. All righty Virginia, we won this thing. He was anonymous, he'd never held any public office, he was your typical very wealthy businessman.

Raising four great kids with Suzanne.

My loving wife of 26 years. And he was hip. He was up to it and he was ready to govern Virginia in the modern age, but just cut back the size of government. And he didn't mention many social issues like abortion.

And so a way of understanding him is that his politics, in some ways, are quite Trumpian, you're saying, but his vibe, his demeanor is not Trumpy.

Yes, he's very friendly, nice smile, looks great, very handsome, extremely tall former basketball player. What more could you want other than experience and understanding government? But what the heck? We don't care about that anymore.

Yeah, and so why? If he's caught the eye of the Murdoch camp, who have seen these indictments mounting up against Donald Trump? They see Ron DeSantis, who was once the leading challenger, you know, hailed by Murdoch's New York Post as Da Future, Ron, Da Future. He's really ailing in the polls, beginning to shed staff, people wondering how viable his campaign remains. You can see why the Murdoch people would turn to somebody. It seems they have lighted upon Glenn Youngkin. It begs the question, why isn't Glenn Youngkin in this race already, if he's got all that going for him?

Because his theory is that he will get the nomination if more people who aren't paying close attention now reach the same conclusion. Rupert Murdoch did that. No one in the current field can actually win either, they can't get nominated or they won't win a general election. He wants to remain untainted. That is why he has never criticized Donald Trump for anything, anything.

So this is a kind of wait-and-see strategy and come in when everyone else has fallen by the wayside. And I'm just interested to know what you make of this kind of will-he-won't-he approach to this campaign so far. Because, you know, he did. At one point, talk, you know, was seen as being on the verge of entering the race. There was a lot of speculation, there was a video that he dropped, he was, he was sort of talked about it.

And the job I've been hired to do is to make sure that Virginia continues to drive towards.

I mean, you're in the state, or you're in the Commonwealth of Virginia, there, you know the politics, what's your? What's your read of the chances that he might come the autumn? Maybe even as late as November? Which will only be a couple of months away from the Iowa contest, which is now scheduled, I think, for January. What's your read of whether? In the end, Glenn Youngkin says, Yeah, I'm joining this race and therefore running against Donald Trump.

He will not run against Donald Trump. That's very, very unlikely unless Trump is essentially collapsed. And it's obvious the party is looking for someone else and is unhappy with the current field. Maybe because by that time they would have been criticizing Donald Trump. Look here, here is here's what Youngkin's doing, and it's smart.

Yeah, and just finally on Glenn Youngkin, how does he go down? Do you think with what we now think of as the Republican base? And I'm thinking of the Fox News audience, you know, Ron DESantis was put in front of them many, many times when Murdoch was seemingly well-disposed to him. You know, not clear that he really connects with that audience.

Well, he'll have to have a positive view. I've lost count of how many times he's been on virtually every show, over and over he's. He's done that because the Fox people have the same strategy, Rupert Murdoch does.

LArry We always do like to ask our guests on the podcast a what else? question something completely different. Record temperatures across Europe, but also some record temperatures off the coast of South Florida in recent days. Across America, you know, extreme and searing heat, but reports out of Florida. People talking about the water temperature being close to 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Like a very warm bath, and, you know, descriptions of it feel that the ocean feeling like steamy syrup.

I think it's having some effect because of these horrible temperatures and terrible weather events. Massive floods and all the rest coming from the same phenomenon. Are affecting, you know, easily, a third of the U.S population. Maybe more than that once you add the Northeast to it. So I do detect some change in opinion, and I've also seen the climate crisis.

A note of hope is at least welcome in these sticky and difficult times. Larry Sabato, there at the University of Virginia, thanks so much for joining me on Politics Weekly America.

It was a well-planned thank you.

And that is all from me for this week. The producer was Yolaine Goffin and the executive producer, Maz Ebtehaj. I'm Jonathan Friedland. Thanks as always for listening.

This is The Guardian.