New Polling on Trump’s Felony Conviction
2024-06-04 00:57:27
Pod Save America is a no-bullshit conversation about politics hosted by former Obama aides Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, Dan Pfeiffer, and Tommy Vietor. It cuts through the noise to break down the week’s news and helps people figure out what matters and how they can help. They’re regularly joined by journalists, activists, politicians, entertainers, and world leaders. You can watch on YouTube or listen to new episodes every Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. Ad-Free Pod Save America episodes available NOW through Friends of the Pod subscription. Head to crooked.com/friends to join today! For a transcript of an episode of Pod Save America, please email [email protected] (edited)
Welcome to Pod Save America, I'm Jon Favreau.
Tommy Vitor.
Welcome back, Tommy. Thank you. I know you've been doing the pods anyway, but you're now officially back from Paterno.
Yeah, I'm now officially back. I just completed The Amazing Race. Now I have a son, a little boy named James.
How's James doing?
He's doing great. I mean, you know how it is. The newborn, they don't do a ton, they sleep, they eat, you console them. So I've been spending a lot of time with Lizette, my 17 month old daughter, who Hannah can't pick up because she had a C-section. So Lizette's kind of like, I'm on duty.
And that has honestly been so much fun.
I know.
She's a blast.
I felt the same way about Charlie, but now that Teddy's five months old and he's starting to do things and smile at you, Emily, every once in a while, is like, you do have a second son. Have you seen him today?
And James, if you're listening to this, in 18 years, uh-oh. Right. But no, knock on you. You're adorable. I love you.
You're fun. But Lizzie's just such a goofy, hilarious kid at this point. So it's been very fun. Takes a couple months.
Our other co-host is still on reality TV show leave.
We just got a weather report that apparently it has been very rainy. where he is. Mm-hmm.
Where he, where he presumably, is. Right. Yeah. We don't know. We don't know.
We literally don't know.
We think he's organizing Americans abroad. But again, we're not sure.
Is that what Bloomberg won?
Yeah. He's, uh, maybe he's accusing Jeff Probst of reading the tribal council by now. Maybe he's yelling at the jurors. We don't know. We don't know.
Wild stuff, guys. Uh, yeah. Hopefully, it's, uh, hopefully that rain clears up.
It's also just, we, you and I, are laughing about the amount of things that have happened in the world that are absolutely monumental and huge, since he's been gone, that he just doesn't know about.
In fact, we wanted to put a list together. This is good. I'm just, if you're listening, send us, tweeted us some, some news items. Obviously, the verdict, the debate. he doesn't know about, but there's probably a bunch of little things that have happened since early May.
Yeah. When he disappeared.
J-Lo's tour getting canceled. J-Lo's tour getting canceled. R.I.P.
The tour. Yeah.
And if you're a subscriber, put it in the discord. That's right. Cause, then we'll definitely see it.
Yeah. If and when he returns. All right. We are going to talk a bit later on the show about the president's latest push for a ceasefire in Gaza and congressional leaders asking BB to speak to a joint session. But first we have a lot to cover on the fallout from the biggest political story of the year, maybe several years, which is that the Republican nominee for president is now a convicted felon.
We've all had a few days to absorb this new reality and answer some version of this question from family and friends. How much will this matter? Tommy, what do you think? And what's your overall takeaway from the verdict? We haven't heard from you yet.
It was funny because this is like the first time in 20 years that I was consuming news like a normal person. You know, it's been my job.
You were a normie?
Yeah. It's been my job to consume news since what, 2003 or 2002.. So I was like in the backyard playing with Lisette and I looked at my phone, and I think I also don't have Twitter on my phone anymore because I deleted it a long time ago. I tried to re-download it, but there was a two-step verification thing. I just can't get it back.
I was going to say, winner of the offline, just both of you guys love it. Love it. It's very offline. I know you're offline too.
It was, it's not a very, it's not a story that looks great. I got into a dumb argument one weekend and I was walking around the mall with my wife and daughter completely distracted, and I was like, what am I doing to myself? So I deleted Twitter. And then, a couple of days later, when I tried to get my fix and download it again, I couldn't. Anyway.
So I was consuming news like a normie. I got a text from you, I think. It was like, hey, verdict coming. So I ran inside and watched it and I think my, my response was just like total surprise. I just did not think the verdict was going to be swift and clear.
I thought it would be muddled, because nothing is clean and easy in the Trump era. I know. You know? And then I also, I listened to you and Dan. later, I also found myself instantly furious at everyone saying, this is such a dark day for America.
I know. It's like guys.
No, it's not. It's not.
He's, he's, uh, he's been a bad guy all along. Yeah. Uh, he's done a whole bunch of bad shit. Most of which he's gotten away with, some of which he hasn't been impeached twice, been held liable for fraud, been held liable for sexual abuse. His companies now have been held liable for financial fraud.
I mean, yeah.
Let me, let me tell you some dark days in America, some sad days in America. The day we elected him, uh, the day we failed to impeach him on January 6th, thanks to Mitch McConnell. Uh, the days when we watched Republicans come crawling back to Donald Trump to endorse him after attacking him for when they were running against him. So this was a very good day.
That was a bad one.
That one sucked. Yeah.
Yeah. We've had some dark days with him.
Some dark days. So, you know, I was just sort of like kind of in shock, and then immediately my broken brain went to. how will this play in the election?
Well, with the caveat that it usually takes a week or two for polling to accurately reflect people's reaction to any big news event, again, which is hard for all of us news junkies to believe because our reactions are immediate. But in most of the country where people are not paying attention to politics, the news sort of filters down, and even if they get it right away, they don't really form opinions on it for awhile. It's just always what happens. But we did, we did get some initial hints from a few pollsters, uh, who spoke to voters after the verdict. On average, they show a shift towards Biden of somewhere between three, three and a half points, maybe a little under three now, because I think there was another morning consult poll today that showed not much movement.
Anything in the numbers you find notable or surprising?
Well, John, uh, as a father of two, I'm now seeing double the big picture. So I do. So I do think it's worth dad.
You got the dad humor for sure.
I never left me. It hurts. It hurts. Uh, I do think it is worth just like pointing out that it is depressing that the numbers didn't move. 20 points.
Yeah. You know, that is sort of, you would think, but that said, uh, I guess I was sort of pleasantly surprised that there was real movement. Sometimes voters tell you, uh, how they're going to feel about an issue, and then it happens and they actually don't feel that way. So I was glad to see that, uh, the numbers moved a bit. There's also a lot of sort of anti-Trump or never Trump Republican types who want us to believe that Alvin Bragg basically cemented Trump's reelection by prosecuting him, uh, and that the guilty verdict will only help that.
Maybe they're right. We won't know for sure until the election happens, but those same people probably would have told us that the election was over if Trump had been found innocent and if there was a hung jury. Yeah. So I don't know. You probably dug into this way more than I did.
What do you think?
I mean, I still, I honestly don't know. And I really do think it's too early to tell, particularly because I think the biggest impact could be on voters who aren't paying attention, which are in the polls. These are some of the voters who Biden has, if you believe the polls has lost to Trump, or who are flirting with supporting Trump or not voting at all. And so it's going to be even tougher to measure what they think. Yeah.
They're not paying attention to the news ever. And so maybe they're not really, they haven't made up their minds yet. So I think that's tough. I also think, if you are someone who has been with Trump this whole time, through the two impeachments, through the insurrection, through all the bullshit, I don't think a guilty verdict is going to change your mind. So if you're a liberal or if you're someone who has decided you're not voting for Donald Trump and you, like, I don't think there's, I can't imagine a guilty verdict making someone who hasn't voted for Donald Trump be like, oh, you know what?
Now I'm going to vote for him because I think that it's a, you know, it's travesty of injustice or something. Like. I think that's bullshit.
Yeah. And maybe, if you're a single issue, the justice system is broken, voter, that might get you. But normally you aren't focused on the way the justice system treats rich, powerful people in Manhattan, because they tend to do okay. I did notice, I think the Times had a writeup of some of their old polling that they found the Trump voters, they don't buy this election interference frame for the New York case, but they did find some independents who are just kind of generally worried. Like how would you serve as president while you're a felon, the logistics, the image of it all?
I can imagine, you know, you kind of, you don't really know how it's going to feel to vote for this guy until you get into the booth and you think about like what message does this send the world? How's this going to work?
I think that's a big, for, for, for normies, for disengaged normies, I think that's a big one. Like, do you want, it's embarrassing. We're overthinking this, right? You know, we're overcome. Like, do you want a convicted felon as president?
Do you want the rest of the rest of the world looking at America and being like, oh yeah, they, uh, they elevated a criminal, an unrepentant criminal, to the most powerful office in the world. You don't want that.
No, no, no.
People don't think that's a good thing, unless you're like, and you really love Trump. Right. Obviously. You know, I think the ABC Ipsos poll showed most voters think the verdict was correct. Most voters think that Trump should end his campaign again.
It's like 49, 50%. So it's pretty close, but it's not like. there's a majority or 49% that think that the verdict was incorrect or that Trump should stay. It's that's in like the thirties. There's a, there's, you know, there's again, like usual, a segment of voters who were like, I don't know what to think yet.
Yeah. And I think that's what we're going to have to watch in the coming weeks. Um, speaking of never Trumpers, our friend Sarah Longwell did a focus group of two time Trump voters who were down on Trump after the verdict, and five of nine said that the verdict has made them less likely to vote for Trump. So it's one focus group, but that's something I'll take it.
Yeah.
Let's talk about the reaction from the newly convicted criminal himself. On Friday, Trump gave a long and rambling speech at the scene of the crime. Trump tower, uh, where he took responsibility for his actions and asked the American people to forgive him. Just kidding. He called the judge, the devil and attack Joe Biden, Democrats, the prosecutors, the witnesses, falsely claimed that the defense witnesses were quote, literally crucified, uh, and told a bunch of lies about our criminal justice system.
Trump kept the crazy train going on Sunday where he sat down with his pals at Fox and friends to take a, take about an hour's worth of softballs. Uh, here's some of what he had to say about the verdict.
I think, I think it would be tough for the public to take, you know, at a certain point there's a breaking point, and it sounds beautiful, right? You know, my revenge will be success, and I mean that, but it's awfully hard when you see what they've done. And these people are so evil and at the same time, the country can come together, you know I'm saying this, but the country can come together. Hillary Clinton, I didn't say lock her up, but the people don't say lock her up, lock her up. Okay.
So he did, he's never said, he's never said, never said lock her up. Never said lock her up. We do have, I think, a clip of that, that might contradict that, that statement for what she's.
done, they should lock her up.
So, crooked Hillary, wait, crooked, you should lock her up, I'll tell you. Hillary. Clinton has to go to jail, okay, she has to go to jail. Lock up the Bidens, lock up Hillary. If she were to win this election, it would create an unprecedented constitutional crisis.
In that situation, we could very well have a sitting president under felony indictment and ultimately, a criminal trial.
That would be horrible.
Prescient.
We would not want that. Now we don't just have a sitting president under a felony trial, we have a sitting president who is a felon.
Oh, that's okay. Even better. I do love that. there's the distinction. Well, it's obvious he lied about not saying lock her up, but I do love that there would be a distinction between saying lock her up or just basking in the Nuremberg-like glow of thousands of people chanting it at you at a rally.
He's such a fucking.
. He also asked the Supreme Court to step in and overturn the verdict, which isn't really how that works. State court, Supreme Court, I guess there's... We talked to Norm about this and Melissa Murray. There's a small chance that once you go through the entire appeals process, maybe somehow they can move it to federal...
It seems very unlikely. it wouldn't happen for years anyway.
I listened to Melissa explain that and rewound it three times and I still didn't get it, but she knows what she's talking about.
One thing that certainly is not going to happen is that the Supreme Court just jumps up and steps in right now.
Yeah, I love that. I love that. I'm calling on the Supreme Court to step in. I mean, one, you know that Clarence Thomas and Justice Alito called in some of their top clerks and they were like, hey, figure out a way we can do this, make this happen.
Is there any way we can, yeah, make this happen? Well, you also see that everyone, they're all flying the flag upside down, like Martha Alito. Yes. This is the new thing now? Yeah.
They're all going to flag their flag, the MAGA people are going to fly their flags upside down, the American flag.
I saw MTG tweeted it, which is usually a sign that in three or four days, everyone's going to be doing whatever she's doing.
The Heritage Foundation put up an upside down flag too. That's good. I look, I think that I'm just a patriot. I like to flag the, fly the American flag the right way up. That's just my, that's a crazy lib political position, but I'm for the flag being right side up.
John's pro flag.
What do you make of Trump's reaction so far?
I mean, the, I watched the speech in its entirety this morning.
The Friday speech. The Friday speech, sorry.
In its entirety, it is a total mess. The gag order makes him more incoherent than usual because he's sort of talking around names of people, so he doesn't get fined again or more jail time. He started by trying to make an argument about immigration. Did you catch this? Something about how they're bringing in criminals to the, it didn't work.
It lasted about 30 seconds of a 30 minute speech. I'm sure, like that was drafted for him. His advisors were like, somehow make this about immigration. Yeah. Didn't work.
10 minutes later he's talking about the January 6th committee. He's attacking random critics like Adam Kinzinger. Yeah. Catch that? He called him the most emotional man I've ever seen.
I did laugh. I mean, he's not like, I don't, I don't even know what he, this, he, that's why he's like so deep in the MAGA weeds. Like. I don't ever remember Adam Kinzinger crying about anything, but I don't know.
Yeah. When did he cry on TV? I was like, what are you talking about? He's making up stats about terrorism. It was just a mess.
In the middle, I thought there was a compelling argument, which is, look, the Southern district of New York didn't take this, Alvin Bragg didn't want to take this case. And then, when I decided to run for president again, that's when they picked it up. This is about defeating me. I think maybe there's something there, a story you could tell there, that could be convincing. And the broader message is always the, I'm taking these attacks to protect you, which has proven pretty effective for him.
But I don't, I don't know that he's, he hasn't landed on the elevator pitch for this thing yet.
Well, I think both the immigration message that you mentioned and some of the other stuff, I think that on Fox and Friends, the line where he said, success will be his revenge. I thought that was very telling. And all of this stuff is, I think his advisors are pushing because they know it's not popular to campaign on a promise to jail your political opponents and the people who held you accountable for breaking the law. The guy hasn't been elected yet. I think they're well aware of that.
He hasn't even been sentenced yet. They're probably well aware of that as well. You gotta, it's up to Judge Mershawn to figure out his future here. But he's also Donald Trump and he can't help himself. He's going to make this about himself.
He's going to make this about his grievances. He's going to make this about how badly he wants revenge. So he's not going to, you've already in a couple of days, he's not going to be able to maintain the discipline to deliver a message about this conviction that could somehow help him, which, by the way, I think it's probably pushing a boulder up a hill there. But nonetheless, I don't think he's going to say the right message here.
And part of this, right, he has to go meet with someone down at the courthouse and do a psychological evaluation. He has to talk about if he's ever been in jail before, this, like pre-sentencing interview. Imagine all of the things he's saying currently could become a part of the consideration when he's sentenced. So you imagine he'd be a little more careful right now? Yeah.
I think the key here is like, he wants to go after Bragg. He wants to go after the judge. He wants to go after the Democrats. I did think it was funny that his own lawyer, Joe Tacopina, ex-lawyer, Joe Tapioca, he said that arguing that Biden had something to do with this was like the craziest thing he ever heard.
Oh, interesting.
He's like, it's a state court. That's Trump's own lawyer. I also think we remember like, there were headlines. One of the first things Alvin Bragg did when he took office was to announce that he was not continuing the investigation into Trump's financial fraud. So this is not a guy who was like, he came into office and was like, I'm going to get him.
He wasn't dying to get him.
Right. And he only took the case when he thought that there was enough evidence. And again, you can think that everyone is always like confused by these polls that show. most Americans think that maybe the charges were politically motivated, but yet they do think that Trump is also guilty. I don't think that's so weird, because it is possible.
we have, look, we have elected prosecutors in this country. And so it is, and prosecutors make decisions about cases all the time. Sometimes they're good decisions. Sometimes they're bad decisions. That's why we have fucking juries.
Right. And that's the key. And you had a jury, even if Alvin Bragg had some political motivation in his mind, it doesn't matter, because a jury of his peers heard the evidence, a jury, by the way, that Trump's defense lawyers helped pick and approved of. ultimately, that jury heard the evidence, took nine hours and was like, oh yeah, he's guilty.
Yeah. I think that's important. And Trump's trying to suggest that that jury isn't credible because of where they live. And I don't know that that flies with anybody.
As they all are now, right? All the Republicans are basically saying juries that hear cases in places that tend to vote for Democrats aren't legitimate. Prosecutors who are elected in places that tend to vote for Democrats aren't legitimate. Judges who are appointed in places that aren't... The only legitimate criminal justice system is the criminal justice system that operates in deep red areas of the country.
That in many cases, Trump gave these judges their jobs. Right. And that's happening in Florida right now.
The only justice is his justice.
So, on that note, I think the most disturbing reactions have been from just about every Republican politician. In a pre-Trump world, you can imagine Republicans reacting like their Maryland Senate candidate, former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, did. Before the verdict came down, he urged Americans to respect the verdict and the legal process. Got in a little bit of trouble. for that we can talk about.
Or Mitt Romney, right? Mitt Romney said, I think the DA made a political decision and he should have just settled the case against Trump. But that's as far as he went. I disagree with Mitt Romney on that. But you could imagine, again, in a pre-Trump world, Republicans saying something like that and leave it alone.
That's not even close to what's happening. Here's what some Republicans have said.
Is it a good idea for the Republican party to nominate the convicted felon? Listen, is it a good idea that Donald Trump is the nominee? The answer is 100% yes.
I do believe the Supreme Court should step in. Obviously, this is totally unprecedented and it's dangerous to our system.
I mean, this is what you see in banana republics. Banana republicans, republics, never stop with the guy at the top.
We have gone over a cliff in America.
Will you condemn those threats? Well, Peter, I don't know what obscure websites that you've gone to. No, this is from True Social. It's not an obscure website. An individual says, I hope every juror is doxed and they pay for what they have done.
May God strike them dead. We will on November 5th and they will pay. You can condemn that threat, can't you? Again, I will always say that violence has no place in our politics. Again, I don't know what obscure account you found on social media.
It's on True Social, but I'll say it's on his website.
So we got the MAGA speaker asking the MAGA majority on the Supreme Court to overturn the jury's verdict. MAGA senators sent a letter over the weekend saying that they are not going to confirm any more judges, any more of the government's nominees, or fund the government, or do anything outside of defense on appropriations because a jury found Trump guilty. That's what they've decided. The MAGA internet is calling for war, threatening to dox jurors, jail Democrats, commit violence. Seems like a totally normal reaction, huh?
Did you see Marjorie Taylor Greene said she wants to defund New York? I did see that. Not just the city, the entire state. I did see that.
They're going to defund New York.
No federal funds for the state of New York?
How do you take this? Is this like lunatics just letting off some steam, or do you think Republicans are going to make this verdict a big focus of the campaign?
I mean, I bet most of it is sucking up. Do you see Tim Sheehy's running for Senate in Montana put up an ad focused on Trump's prosecution? My guess is a lot of these guys are like, all right, how do I kiss his ass the fastest and make sure that he'll be there for me later when I need fundraising or political support? That said, I mean, you and I were talking earlier in our office, Republicans are very focused on vengeance and revenge these days. For example, Dr.
Fauci was testifying on Capitol Hill today. Are there a lot of people who want to revisit the pandemic right now? I don't want to. I don't know why Dr. Fauci was getting screamed at by Marjorie Taylor Greene.
The thing I'm worried about the most, though, is the vigilante violence, because it takes one person. I mean, everyone forgets before January 6th, remember back in 2018, when that guy in Florida sent 16 pipe bombs to prominent Democrats he believed were Trump's enemies, right? I mean, like someone like Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, they have layers of security to protect themselves from that kind of stuff. But if I were a juror or an employee in the New York court system, I would be pretty scared.
Yeah, I've been thinking about how difficult it's been to sort of convince people that a second Trump term would be very scary, right? Not just talk about, like, you know, Trump's going to give another tax cut and all the things that poll very well, but the idea that he could, you know, invoke the Insurrection Act, that he's going to do, these deportation rates, all this kind of stuff. And it's kind of because I think the Trump cult is most threatening and menacing when they are afraid of losing power and they are challenged, right? This is when they lost the election. Obviously, that's what happened January 6th.
This is now when Trump has been convicted. And this is when they really show their true selves, because as long as you don't challenge them and just let them stay in power, they're going to do all their bad shit and they're going to, you know, be corrupt and make money, but they're just going to just... But once they're threatened, they really show their true colors. I mean, the CEO of the Federalist, Sean Davis...
That guy's the worst.
He said.
. He tweeted that he wants lists of Democrats that will go to prison. He wants prosecutors in red districts to start prosecuting Democrats. And he says that the right has a, quote, moral obligation to terrorize the left until it's destroyed because of this. You know, you heard Peter Alexander on Meet the Press talking to Tom Cotton about these threats.
Some of them, and NBC reported this, someone said, we need to identify each juror, make them miserable, maybe even suicidal. Another one said one million armed men need to go to Washington and hang everyone. The Proud Boys have been posting the word war. And a convicted January 6th defendant, the kind that Trump wants to pardon, tweeted a photo of Alvin Bragg and a noose and said, January 20th, 2025, traitors, get the rope.
And look, that's just genuinely scary to say something like that. And also, you know, there was once a big debate about whether online commentary could lead to offline violence. Well, I think we kind of settled that one on January 6th. One other thing I just wanted to quickly take on is you heard Ted Cruz there say, this is banana republic stuff, the prosecution of the former president. That is, first of all, this is like weird dated terminology, though, it's a third world or banana republic stuff, it's just nonsense.
It's also just wrong. Like France, Israel, Italy, Germany, Portugal have all indicted presidents or prime ministers. Nicolas Sarkozy was convicted in 2021. Bibi Netanyahu is currently on trial for corruption and has been for years. So I think, if anything, the US, we are an outlier in how little we seem to hold these corrupt political leaders accountable.
And of all those countries you mentioned, most of them have not returned those leaders to power. Right, right. Lula has been returned to power, but that's because his charges were thrown out, right? His conviction was thrown out. And then the other one that looms large, Berlusconi, who, in 2013,, when they were going to put him.
in jail, was like, oh, there'll be riots in the street. There will be... You know, he essentially threatened. kind of an insurrection.
Again, none of these Republican politicians or MAGA people on the right are making the case that what Trump did was legal, right? They keep calling it a paperwork issue, an accounting issue. Like what the guy did was try to win an election by paying the inquirer to make up bad stories about his opponents. He tried to kill bad stories about himself. And then he covered the whole thing up so that the voters wouldn't know.
That's what he did. No one's saying that that is legal.
Ted Cruz is like banana republic stuff. Actually, Ted was about your dad.
And he was a victim, right? And basically, Republicans are saying, if you're Donald Trump, you get to do that. Even if it's against the law, even if a jury decides it's against the law, you get to do it because you're Donald Trump. That's the argument they're making, which is this stuff is all this... I think the Republican reaction to me is scarier and more menacing than even Trump's reaction, because Trump, you obviously expect to do that.
And the entire Republican party, it's very worrisome that they're doing that because they could incite violence. I also think it's the most politically damaging thing for them to do. And I think that's what we're going to talk about, Biden, but Biden specifically called out the attacks on the justice system. But telling voters that now, not only Donald Trump, but the entire Republican party, this whole campaign and all they want to do is just take revenge out on their enemies. And you have a bunch of senators who are like, we're not doing our jobs anymore because we're pissed that Donald Trump got convicted of something.
People.
. I don't think that's going to be very popular with voters.
You know, I don't think an eye for an eye is the bedrock principle upon which this country was founded. I think it's a little different than that.
So let's talk about the reaction from Joe Biden. and the only normal party left in American politics. Biden campaign, has been calling Trump a convicted felon. They also trotted out white collar crook today. I like that.
The president himself has been a bit more restrained, though he still addressed the verdict during a speech on Friday. The jury heard five weeks of evidence, five weeks after careful deliberation. The jury reached a unanimous verdict. They found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 felony counts. Now he'll be given the opportunity, as he should, to appeal that decision, just like everyone else has that opportunity.
That's how the American system of justice works. And it's reckless. It's dangerous. It's irresponsible for anyone to say this was rigged just because they don't like the verdict. What do you think about the response from Biden and his campaign?
I mean, I understood the reticence before there was a verdict to comment on this, because you know, Biden didn't want to play into this narrative, that he was directing the prosecution, and the belief that we're all innocent until proven guilty is, you know, at the heart of the U.
S. legal system and most legal systems. That said, now that we have a verdict rendered by a jury of Trump's peers, I think not only is there no way to avoid talking about it, but it's politically the obvious and advantageous thing to do. It is historic. It is the biggest piece of news and negative information that we'll probably learn about Trump in this entire election cycle.
And Trump is going to try to blame his own corruption on Joe Biden. So you have to be out there talking about it. I do, like... I like that. Biden started big.
No one is above the law. This was a jury of his peers. I think constantly reminding people that Trump was convicted by a jury is key. And then, in some of the other cases, I mean, it's hard for Biden to talk about this, but in some of these other cases, indictments were passed down by grand juries. Yes.
You know what I mean? This is not like someone at DOJ being like, this one, that one, that charge, let's get him on this one. It's these are citizens making these decisions. So, you know, I think the challenge is going to be, will this thing get memory holds, like every other piece of information that's happened in this country? And I do think it's on Joe Biden and his campaign and all of us to make sure it does not.
I totally agree. I also think that... I'm glad that he brought up the appeals process too.
Me too.
Because, again, if Trump's going to appeal this and if the New York Court of Appeals overturns the conviction, like, well, of course we'd be personally disappointed. Yes. But am I going to sit there and be like, that court was rigged and the fix is in. It's like, no, accept the decision. That justice was...
That's justice. That's our legal system. Like, what are you going to do?
You say appeal. I say news hook. For the story to keep playing out. Keep it in the news.
I also think that.
. I like that. he said no one's above the law. It was right for Biden to call out the attacks on the judicial system. I think, as we move on, there's a lot of Americans who, probably way before Trump, have not had complete faith in the American judicial system.
There's a lot to criticize.
And there's a lot to criticize. A lot of justicism. And I think that the key here is Donald Trump thinks he's above the law. He thinks that there's a separate set of rules for him than there is for everyone else. Right.
So there's Alvin Bragg, since he took office, brought like dozens and dozens of these exact charges against other criminal defendants and won convictions too. So are we to say now that those people should get jail time and those people should deal with a guilty verdict, but Donald Trump doesn't have to? I think that's the powerful argument there is that he thinks he gets to get away with whatever he wants, because he's fucking Donald Trump and all the rest of the people in America, they have to abide by the law.
Right. And I just think big picture, if you're looking at our justice system and looking for problems and inequities, you're more likely to find them when you see the draconian sentences handed down to nonviolent drug laws and not, boy, this country is way too hard on white collar criminals and corrupt business. people. Like those folks tend to skate because they can afford great lawyers.
Yeah. I mean, what's it say about our country when you can't even run for office without participating in a catch and kill scheme with the National Enquirer and then cover up the whole story?
I know that. And that is the piece of this, like, how dare they deny him the presidency? Right. Exactly.
Well, that's what that was, what January 6th was about. So Democrats all seem to agree that we should be... I've seen all these headlines, like there's a debate with Democrats about whether they should talk about this or not. When you really look at it, like everyone seems to be in agreement that Joe Biden and Democrats should be talking about this. The fact that the Republicans are nominating a convicted felon to be president.
There has been some debate about how much the Biden campaign and other elected Dems should focus on it. What's your take on that?
I mean, for other elected, I assume it will just be case by case, based on.
. Look, Democrats are going to try to rally their base and raise money off of this. Republicans are going to do the same thing. So if you're in a more progressive state, if you're in Maryland, you're probably going to talk about this a lot, try to rally the base and get out the vote. And that's why Larry Hogan, the Republican nominee there, took a much more reasonable, rational stance.
If you're Jon Tester in Montana, where his opponent put up an ad talking about the deep state going after Trump, that's probably not the thing he wants to talk about. He's going to talk about whatever is polling. well, in those issues. I think, at the presidential level, like for the Biden campaign, this should be their core argument to discredit Trump, right? I mean, the fact that we're asking this question seems crazy.
I know.
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills just reading about this debate. Like again, we don't have to overthink this.
What's the counter argument?
We don't have.
. The counter argument is that the negatives about Donald Trump are already baked in and that this doesn't affect people's lives as much. And so people know that Donald Trump is a bad guy. And so if you just tell them, if you remind them that he's a convicted felon, they're going to like, yeah, I know he's a bad guy, but I'm upset about gas prices, or I'm upset about Gaza, or I'm upset about whatever they're upset about with Joe Biden. And I think that I'd rather have a bad guy in a good economy than Joe Biden and the bad economy.
This would be the argument from the other side.
Yeah. And I guess, you know, you're sort of straw manning, and I appreciate the look, but maybe the pushback is like, well, you know, being a felon doesn't mean you're a bad guy. It just means you're not fit to serve as president of the United States. Or, and this is very new information, like the constitutional challenges it creates, like is he going to run? You know, could he be elected and then get put on house arrest?
Like, how's any of this going to work?
He's banned from 37 countries as a convicted felon. There are 37 other, 38 countries, including the United States, but there's 37 countries that don't let, that bar convicted felons from-.
They bar, like cool countries? Like beaches?
He can't buy a gun. He would be discharged from the military, Donald Trump.
Like, it's not a good look to be a convicted felon. I also think, like, I would not say Donald Trump's, if I was on the Biden campaign, which already they're doing, and if you look at all their press releases, so I'm not criticizing them for this, if I was the Biden campaign, if I was an elected Democrat, maybe some exceptions for a Jon Tester or someone like that in a tough race, I would not say Donald Trump's name between now and November without including the phrase convicted felon or white collar crook, like the Biden campaign's doing. I would also, if I had more room to say it, I would remind people, like you said, that he was found guilty by a jury of his peers, that his lawyers helped pick for a crime, that the prosecutor has indicted hundreds of other defendants for. I would say all that, but, and I also think that I would tie the verdict and the fact that he's a convicted felon into a larger message about him. And it fits perfectly, because the larger message is Donald Trump is only in it for himself.
Exactly. He is only running to keep himself out of jail. He is only running so that he can keep himself from being broke. He does not give a shit about you at every opportunity he's ever had in life. He throws people under the bus who are very loyal to him.
See Michael Cohen and the people who testified against him at trial. All he cares about is himself. That's why he's in it. And if you elect him, you might think he's going to help you, but you will be disappointed, just like everyone else in his life has been. And that is the kind of person, he is a con man, and now he is a convicted felon.
I would make that argument.
I totally, I think the fact that it folds so perfectly into this broader narrative that Biden's already taking is what makes this, what makes it key. This is not just some data point that shows that he's like kind of a gross or crass person or untoward. No, like this fits in perfectly with these reports. I think it was the Washington Post where he's going to oil and gas lobbyists and being like, give me a million bucks and I'll slash your regulations. He's calling donors and trying to get them to 10X their donation to like super packs and the RNC and offering political favors to them.
This is bread and butter corruption, and people do not like that.
There's just a story. we're going to talk about Gaza in a second, but there's just a story that Miriam Adelson, Sheldon Adelson's wife, who's like one of the richest women in the world now, said she's ready to donate to Trump and go all in on Trump, but her price is him coming out for complete annexation of the West Bank. That's the kind of presidency you get. That's the kind of- Pay to play. That's the kind of leadership you get in a country where there's an autocrat as a leader, right?
Pay to play. This is what authoritarians do. They just, they get into office and they make themselves rich. They help their family. They help their friends, and everyone else can fuck off.
And that's what this verdict shows for Donald Trump, I think. Trump obviously gives Democrats a lot of material to work with, aside from being convicted felon, which you shouldn't need more, but I guess, I guess we do. Even in that Fox and Friends interview, he said quite a few alarming things that didn't get as much attention. Here are just a couple.
Do you think the public will have the appetite, the stomach, for watching deportations on their television screen? Well, that question is so, so great and so tough. So you'll get rid of 10 really bad ones and one, you know, beautiful mother, and it'll become a story. Then it's going to always be tough. It's not going to be easy.
When they say that the seas will rise over the next 400 years, one eighth of an inch, you know, which means basically you have a little more beachfront property, okay, there's not woke in the military. There's woke at the top. They want there to be woke. But these guys aren't meant for woke.
Are you going to fire those generals?
The woke generals at the top, because people have been talking about it. Yes, I would get rid of them, yeah. But see, now I know them. I didn't know them before. I, you know, I came in.
What do I know? I was a New York real estate person, but no, I'd fire them. I would fire them. You can't have woke military. We're going to cut the Department of Education, let it be run locally.
We have this mess. You mean. end the Department of Education? End it. End it.
Other than to have a little tiny coordination. You know, it would be nice to make sure that everybody's teaching English. You know, let them learn English, okay? I love that.
Also, the Department of Interior, too. No more parks. Enough of that. The Biden campaign has been pushing these around, but are there any you think are particularly damaging to Trump? Because that's a lot.
That's a lot of crazy shit in that interview, aside from the verdict stuff.
Yeah, I think I would focus on the fact that this man chose to spend 90 minutes of his time with these three idiot Fox and Friends weekend anchors. Like, can you think of anything worse?
Yeah, the B-team. I didn't even realize there was a Fox and Friends B-team, a second string, Fox and Friends. Like from an ex-Real World star there, Rachel Campos Duffy. Oh, right from Boston, right? Yeah, yeah.
I like that season, too. What's her husband's name? He's in Congress?
Sean Duffy.
Yeah, Sean Duffy.
Is he from Wisconsin? Is he still there? I don't know.
Yeah, he was like a logger or something.
It was a wild interview. I can't say that I watched the full hour and a half.
The response to the deportation question, like, what a beautiful, tough question. We're going to have to get rid of one. Like, he's imagining it and sort of fantasizing about it.
It's also very damaging, because this is exactly what we need to get people to understand about the deportation plans that he has, because I think a lot of people in the country think it is, you know, newer entrants from the border, people who've just crossed the border. But this is like massive raids in cities trying to deport people who've been here for decades, who have families here, who are like deeply enmeshed in our communities. And you can imagine, I talked to Ron Brownstein about this for The Wilderness, and he did a lot of reporting on this, like these deportation forces who can either be local police or National Guard or the military. Military, probably, right? Going, like, house to house, like raiding them, raiding offices, workplaces.
Kids are going to school watching, like, their parents, be, like, let out in handcuffs and deported. Like, this is just chaos. And they're going to... And Stephen Miller's bragging about it. No, they love it.
They're going to do it. Charlie Kirk's bragging about it, all their friends. Yeah.
I mean, I think, unfortunately, far more voters than we'd like to believe as a generally identify with Trump's immigration views. But that is a bridge too far, and that is scary for a lot of people.
Yeah. But I think all of these are of a piece, all of the things that he said there, of what we were just talking about, right? Like, the immigrants he knows aren't getting deported, right? Melania is not getting deported. Right.
His kids won't be affected by eliminating the Department of Education. Climate change probably will mean more beachfront property for him.
It's like.
. He'll put his Mar-a-Lago underwater, though. We've got to figure that out.
But, like, he's not getting hurt by climate change. He's rich as hell, right? So, it's like, he wants loyal generals, again, who are going to do whatever he tells them to do. I keep saying, Mike Flynn, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Mike Flynn, QAnon guy, is going to be...
Flynn is back.
Yeah.
I'm starting to regret getting a cameo from him the whole time, putting money in his pocket.
But, again, it's all.
. You know, as long as Trump's... Trump's going to be okay if he's president. The rest of us will not, because he doesn't give a shit.
All right. We should also note that Hunter Biden's criminal trial has begun in Delaware. The president's son has been charged with lying about his drug use on a form he filled out to buy a gun in 2018.. If convicted, he could face years in prison. Hunter will also be tried in September here in California for failing to pay his taxes.
In response, President Biden issued a statement attacking the Trump-appointed judge who's overseeing the trial, as well as the Trump-appointed prosecutor who brought the charges against Hunter. Hunter, again, just kidding. He said that he loves his son, he's proud of his recovery from substance abuse, and that, as president, he doesn't and won't comment on federal cases. Don't you think it's weird that Biden rigged the justice system to get Trump, but he couldn't spare his own son?
He's very bad at rigging. It is. The fact that you can have a bunch of Trump fans who consume this daily meal of content about how the Justice Department is rigged against Trump, and then their dessert is like fantasizing about Hunter Biden going to jail, it's hard to compute. It's not quite cognitive dissonance. It's like they want to live in reality, where all the facts kind of warp around Trump-like gravity, and they're just happy to hear what they want to hear.
I don't know. Maybe the gross political calculus. Who knows? Maybe this will convince some people that Joe Biden is actually not controlling the DOJ and telling them who to indict. But mostly, it's just a really sad story about addiction and a family that has gone through some terrible stuff, and now it's going to have it all dragged out because of this case.
The family, the president, elected Democrats, no one is talking about this case, the way that Republicans have talked about the 88 felony charges and now 34 convictions against Donald Trump, because Democrats respect the criminal justice system and the legal system and the process in this country where a jury decides your guilt or your innocence. It's just like you don't hear Democrats talking about how the system is rigged against Bob Menendez, Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, who's on trial. Henry Cuellar was indicted. Another Democratic congressman. You don't hear Democrats complaining about Henry Cuellar.
We tried to primary his ass like five years ago.
And the president's son, the president's own Justice Department, through a Trump-appointed prosecutor, brings charges against Hunter, and now there's a judge appointed by Trump, and Joe Biden is like, all right, I'm going to let it. It's probably killing Joe Biden. Oh, it's absolutely. This is his last remaining son. Beau died.
He lost his daughter and his first wife. I mean, the tragedy.
Yeah, and I don't mean to sound crass about it by focusing on the politics first. I mean, first of all, this is a guy who allegedly lied on a background check form and he could get real jail time because of it. I mean, it's kind of shocking that that is the penalty. That said, like we have a lot of stupid laws that give you a lot of jail time for things where you shouldn't get jail time in this country. But yes, I mean, I think it is very clear that Hunter's addiction has been agonizing for Joe Biden and for his family.
And the thing he fears most is losing another child. And I can't imagine what it is like having this in the background of your life. No, that's not to excuse or absolve Hunter Biden of things he has done or making mistakes. But, you know, just on a human level, it's awful.
But again, and like, you know, to take it back into politics, unfortunately, like, do you want to live in a country where even the president's own son can be held accountable by the president's own Justice Department for breaking the law? Yeah, I do. And the president says that lets that go forward and just says, I love my son. And, you know, that's that's all. there is.
Or a country where this guy who's been a convicted felon is like, no, because it was me, I want to throw away the charges and everything's rigged. And you shouldn't trust the justice system unless it's in a deep red area.
Yeah. And then Barron hosts the Hillary Clinton military tribunal on the road.
Incoming attractions. That's what our kids are going to lock her up.
All right.
Before we go, I do want to get your thoughts on the latest Gaza news. So in the same speech where Biden talked about Trump's guilty verdict, it turns out it was just a Trump guilty verdict. topper on a speech about Gaza.
Yeah. Who doesn't want to write a Gaza war plan speech with an indictment topper? Right.
Poor Biden. speechwriter. So the president called for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and endorsed a new Israeli proposal to bring the hostages home and end the war. He also said he urged the leadership of Israel to get behind this proposal. Let's listen.
I want to level with you today as to where we are and what might be possible. But I need your help. Everyone who wants peace now must raise their voices and let the leaders know they should take this deal, work to make it real, make it lasting, and forge a better future out of the tragic terror, attack and war. It's time to begin this new stage. For the hostages to come home, for Israel to be secure, for the suffering to stop.
It's time for this war to end, for the day after to begin. Why do you think Biden chose to endorse this proposal and make it public for the first time the day after Donald Trump was found guilty?
So on the timing, I know the speech has been in the works for a while. I talked to some folks at the White House. I think the proposal went over to Hamas the night before he gave the speech. So maybe some of the thinking was, look, this is now like in the wild. Maybe we should just get ahead and frame it.
I do think the broader goal of making this proposal public is to put pressure on Hamas and the Israeli government to accept it and then try to rally international support from other countries behind getting this deal done so that everybody's making calls, the Egyptians, the Qataris, whoever they can figure out to talk to, to try to say accept it. Now, will that work? It's hard to say at this point.
Now, you said putting pressure on the Israeli government. It's the Israeli government's proposal. But it seems like they didn't want to make it public just yet. because Netanyahu, does he want some wiggle room to potentially not support this proposal because some of the right wing, the even further right wing characters in his own government, don't accept the proposal?
He is a duplicitous individual. And I rarely believe anything he says. I think the broader political challenges are, one, Hamas has to accept it. They're a terrorist organization. They don't want Israel to exist.
They clearly launched the October 7th attacks knowing that there would be a massive military response and retaliation. So their logic is hard to predict, especially since the decision makers are not like the political leaders who are living in foreign countries like Qatar. They're like guys in tunnels in Gaza. But on the Israeli side, you have a bunch of super right wing ministers and politicians and political parties who want Israel to stay in Gaza permanently and occupy it. Some of them want to rebuild settlements that were taken out of Gaza in the 2000s.
And Netanyahu has built a coalition that includes some of these characters, some of the most odious people in Israeli political life, like Itamar Ben-Gavir and Smotric, the finance minister. And so he is facing a constant threat from those guys to pull out of the coalition, which topples the government, which means he's no longer in power. So it's like, clearly, the Israeli war cabinet, it's the more sort of serious people have agreed to this deal and they put it forward to see if Hamas would agree to it. But I think Netanyahu doesn't want to concede any of that publicly before, like everything is done, right? Because they want to say no, like they just want to stick to these broader principles of like total victory over Hamas, which is not an achievable goal.
And it seems like Biden, then, by making this public and giving the speech, also kind of wanted to box Bibi in a little bit.
Yeah, I think Biden wants to box Bibi in and see if he can put pressure on him. I also think, look, their team has been working constantly for months to try to broker a ceasefire agreement, both short term and longer term. And also this Saudi-Israeli normalization deal that they think could lead to a Palestinian state ultimately. So there's all this work happening behind the scenes, but those efforts aren't always public. And obviously none of it has been successful.
So I think part of it is like, let's just lay out what we believe. Let's put forward what we're working on. Let's see if that can help us get it done and accomplish this goal and at least make this private diplomatic effort that we're doing public.
How hopeful are the various parties and factions that this deal could actually happen?
I just, I don't know. I mean, it's, you know, it's so hard.
You have to guess what Hamas will do.
But, you know, I don't know. At some point this war has to end, you know, hopefully it's sooner than later. And, you know, it's, I don't know.
I saw a bunch of other governments put out statements supporting the deal. And then I think the Biden administration is now trying to get a UN resolution going. that's based on the deal as well. So hopefully the pressure continues. Yeah, it's a full court press.
You do sort of worry about, you know, and I guess Hamas initially reacted like, oh, we're looking at the proposal favorably, but who the fuck knows?
Well, the problem is, a lot of the initial reactions are from all these political leaders, like living abroad, but then the folks who will actually decide are in Gaza. It takes days to get to them.
So, in related news, Bibi has accepted an invitation from congressional leaders, Republicans and Democrats to address a joint session of Congress. We don't know when, yet. There was some reporting that it was June 13th. Doesn't seem like that's the date now, but around there. Some Democrats are saying they'll skip the speech and criticize the invitation, including Bernie Sanders, who called Netanyahu a war criminal.
Why do you think Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries went along with this one?
I am just beyond frustrated and confused by this.
Wild.
So, OK, I'm going to float some scenarios. You tell me what you make of them. The most charitable scenario, right? You have Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, who fundamentally think Israel is one of our closest allies. They're in.
what they feel like is this existential fight. So you invite the prime minister from Israel to come address Congress. It sucks that it's Bibi Netanyahu, but this is not about individuals. This is about two countries. That's the most charitable explanation I can think of.
It's just you don't have to.
That's right. That's a great rejoinder. It's not like it's a great rejoinder.
It's not like it's a preplanned thing that you are now taking away. No. It's like it's a special thing to invite a foreign leader to come to the U.S.
It doesn't help them win the war.
Right. And it's not like. it's like anyone saying Chuck Schumer should go out there, which he already did, and denounce Netanyahu. He called on him to step down. I just like, would you invite Donald Trump?
Like, would you invite the crazy right wing racist who's corrupt to your own country to address Congress? Victor Orban?
No. Less charitable version. That could be, as you just mentioned, Schumer gave the speech several weeks back where he basically said Netanyahu should go, should no longer be prime minister. You could imagine he got a bunch of blowback from that. You could imagine the Democratic Party generally is worried about losing support from Jewish voters because of criticism from Democrats of Israel's conduct in this war.
So they decide, okay, let's join on this invite with Mitch McConnell and Speaker Johnson, invite Netanyahu to come address Congress. so we don't give them like a political issue. I don't know. I'm making this up, but that could be another rationale.
It's also like, we're not the UK parliament here. We don't have like question time where you can go back and forth with Netanyahu. You're just giving him this stage to say whatever he wants to say. It's not like Netanyahu's coming to the US and Schumer and Jeffries were like, yeah, we'll meet with Netanyahu. I'd be like, yeah, of course.
Then you have an exchange. You go back and forth with him. You debate him. I think protesting that meeting or saying you're not going to take the meeting is like-.
You use that meeting to pressure him. Right.
That seems sort of silly. That's one of the better things. But a speech to Congress is just that. It's a speech to Congress. You don't get to talk back.
You just get to sit there and listen, and it's going to get broadcast everywhere.
Yeah. I personally think this is just a massive error and, like I'm offended and shocked by it. It is totally unforced. Netanyahu, when he gave a joint session speech in 2015,, he used it to attack President Obama over the Iran nuclear deal, which, by the way, Trump later pulled out of, which was one of the biggest diplomatic self-owns in recent history. Netanyahu clearly wants Trump to be president because Trump gave him everything he wanted the first time around diplomatically.
Netanyahu could use this as a political lifeline back home to show, hey, you might hate me. I have taken no responsibility for October 7th. I won't own any of the mistakes that were made that day, but I still got juice with Washington. You could see him making that argument. But even before October 7th, this is the man who was trying to shred Israel's judicial system to help himself evade accountability for his brazen corruption.
Like he's a bad guy. He's a bad leader. This is a terrible decision.
And I'm sure they'll say, well, you know, Israel's an ally. Like, would you have MBS come address a joint session after he, I know we're doing the normalization deal, but that is a different, that is a different thing. I would not go. If I was a Democrat, I would absolutely not go to the speech.
Bernie Sanders is absolutely right. I would not go listen to this man.
We talk about like things, things to protest that are effective and not like I, if I was a democratic member of Congress, if I was, I would protest Bibi Netanyahu giving the speech for sure.
And one other thing that just to know, is like the progressives in Israel are furious about this decision. They feel like they were hung out to dry. and you know, you've got Netanyahu coming to Congress, but he hasn't found the time to meet with. like all these families of hostages and communities that were affected by the October 7th attacks. I mean, this is a guy who, who pitched himself as Mr.
Security. He was a bad guy. He was tough, but he could keep you safe. And this terrorist attack happened on his watch and he won't take any accountability for it. And to have him come and spin for 30 minutes in front of the US Congress, it's just, it's a terrible decision.
On the other hand, it is entirely consistent with Republicans now elevating criminals, corrupt politicians, and right-wing autocrats here at home and all over the world.
That's true. That's true.
That's just, that's the world they want to live in right now.
Cheers to that. Right. Cheers to bringing kids into this world.
Putin, Netanyahu, Trump, Orban. Yeah. That's the, that's, that's what gets the Republican party going these days. Perfect. Anyway, on that note, good to have you back, buddy.
Hey, great to be back.
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