The Bongino Brief - The "Obamaha" Problem

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Welcome to the Bongino Brief.

that don't have winner-take-all presidential election

electoral vote tallies.

There are liberals watching,

so I know conservatives, you know this.

There are liberals watching who are quite slow,

so I need to explain this, okay?

48 states use a very simple model.

You vote in Florida, Donald Trump wins Florida

because he gets more votes.

Donald Trump gets Florida's electoral votes.

It's very simple.

It's a great system.

It's the least worst system, I should say.

No system is great, okay?

Pretty good, effective system.

For some reason, Maine and Nebraska have chosen

to go another route where they break it up differently.

Now, this is described beautifully

in a piece Charlie sent me last night.

Folks, pay really close attention

because if this happens, you're gonna be like,

damn, I heard it there first

because we've been talking about Obama for a long time.

Look at this Newsweek article.

Is this in a newsletter, fellas?

Put Bongino.com slash newsletter.

You need to read the whole thing.

It's by Natalie Venegas, okay?

How a Republican state could cost Donald Trump the election.

A Republican state.

You mean a Democrat?

No, no, a Republican state.

Nebraska, a very, very Republican state.

They know no but two states, Maine and Nebraska,

electoral votes are winner take all.

The candidate who wins a popular vote

receives the state's votes.

Pretty simple process.

However, there are two states, Maine and Nebraska,

that use the congressional district method

which allows them to allocate two electoral votes

to the state popular vote winner

and then one electoral vote

to the popular vote winner in each congressional district.

One electoral vote could be a big deal.

Why?

Because as a note in part two of this,

while candidates need 270 electoral votes to win,

under a scenario where Biden, which is a possible scenario,

under a scenario where Biden only wins

the three northern swing states

and other uncontested blue states,

a loss in Nebraska's second district

could result in a 269 to 269 tie.

What if I had been warning you about

why they want RFK out of the race?

Can you imagine if Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s

entrance into the race

causes a, say, Trump win in Nebraska's second district

that causes a 269-269 tie,

that then causes the race to get kicked over

to the House of Representatives,

where because a bunch of swampy Republicans left,

the House of Republicans would,

excuse me, the House of Representatives

would be run by Hakeem Jeffries,

who would then decide,

the state delegations would decide, to be clear,

but the House would be run by Hakeem Jeffries

if they win in the next Congress

because of the power of incumbency?

Can you imagine that?

Now, ladies and gentlemen, before anybody tells me,

oh, that's impossible, that's never gonna happen,

folks, I was told a lot of things were gonna happen.

I was told in 2016 Donald Trump's chances

of winning the presidential election

are, quote, approaching zero

in a Washington Post article

written by Aaron Blake and Chris Eliza.

You can still read it yourself, it's still there.

Now, how worried, how worried are people about this scenario?

Where does the Dan Bongino Show go

when we wanna find out what the liberals are worried about?

Anyone?

Playbook, political playbook,

which is the left-wing Bible, I read it every morning

because I love to see what they're worried about.

Oh, and look, right at the top

of the left-wing Bible this morning,

on the email they all read, political playbook.

It could shake up the presidential election.

What?

They call it Obama-ha

because Obama won Omaha, Nebraska,

that congressional district.

it would take away what is currently his easiest path to 270,

win the blue wall states, Michigan.

He could win that.

We should not, I don't wanna hear any talk of a red wave.

You gotta take that to a different show.

We're not doing that here.

It is very possible Biden could win Michigan,

Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

And then all he has to do is win that one electoral vote

from Metro Omaha, which has been won by the Democrats

quite often, hence the term Obama-ha.

Ladies and gentlemen, read this playbook thing.

Not because I wanna give Politico any clicks,

but you can tell what the left are going to do

because they always announce it every morning

on their emails and their email list there.

Every single morning.

It's the top story.

If this was no big deal

and they weren't freaking out about it,

then why is it leading their stories?

I got a video coming up in a second

of another Democrat insider.

You know Jim Messina?

He was basically the architect

of Obama's reelection effort.

Jim Messina is a noted Democrats insider

with a vast network of connections.

I'm gonna show you in a second

how worried they are about this.

But this is not a new problem.

The fact that Nebraska, for some reason,

has decided to break up its electoral votes this way

instead of giving them all to Donald Trump,

which they should do.

48 states do it that way.

And to be fair there,

the Republicans and Governor Jim Pillen

are pushing for this now.

But it's by no means close to done.

And it may get squashed before the election.

Actually, there's several reasons.

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despite interest rate controls by the Fed.

The national debt continues to skyrocket,

now above 34 trillion.

You also got a presidential election year.

Massive implications for the future of the country.

You got a lot of uncertainty and instability out there.

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This is how long this has been going on.

Look at this ABC News article.

It's by Jake Tapper.

The most important part of this article is the date.

February 28th, 2012.

2012.

This is 12 years ago.

Tapper notes, hey, scoff if you like,

but the campaign did this in 2008

and won Nebraska's second congressional district.

The Obama campaign jokingly referred

to the strategy in the city as Obamaha.

No one outside the state really noticed

that Nebraska split its electoral votes

given Obama's electoral landslide,

but what started out as a just-in-case measure

actually proved itself as achievable.

How likely is a 269 to 269 electoral vote split?

Not as unlikely as you might think.

Look at these permutations, folks.

There's like five, six different likely ways

we could get to 269, 269,

but then if no one gets to 270, nobody wins.

Exactly, it goes to the House.

Now you see why these swampy Republicans are leaving early?

Here, Tapper, he's not wrong here, by the way.

He says, let's assume an election

where the battleground states are from west to east.

Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin,

Michigan, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina,

Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire.

Let's give all in the GOP

except for Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina.

There you go, 269, 269.

He says, how about Obama wins?

Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania,

New Hampshire, New Mexico.

269, 269.

So Obamaha might come in handy.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Democrats, as always,

are way ahead of the Republicans on tactics.

If it wasn't for Charlie and a couple other people

bringing attention to this issue

and the author of that Newsweek piece,

I promise you a lot of Republicans

wouldn't have done jack about this.

Now, I want you to watch this clip

because there's nothing worse than Democrat bellyaching.

Oh, look, poor me,

the Republicans are gonna destroy democracy again.

You've earned the double-barreled middle finger.

What has two middle, what has two thumbs

that thinks they get the two-barreled middle finger?

This one to you guys

the party of Twinkies, Fannie Willis,

Andy Weissman, Peter Strzok, Jim Comey, Joe Biden,

Derek Farland, the agino, the attorney general,

and name only, I'm really not interested

in your lectures on democracy,

not even a little bit, like a big fat donut.

Sorry, don't care.

But watch, when Republicans simply propose the idea

of changing Nebraska to just get in line

with the rest of the United States,

this is not some radical far-right theory.

Literally 48 states do it this way.

You win the popular vote in the state,

you get the electoral votes.

It's not hard.

There's nothing even remotely radical about this.

Now, however, trying to remove a presidential candidate

who's the presumptive nominee from the ballot

and steal the election before it's even happened,

that's radical.

But notice, the shithead Democrats,

the absolute garbage, full diaper Democrats

have no problem with that at all.

But that Nebraska is looking to just get in line

with the rest of the country

and vote the way the citizens of the state,

not a particular region of the state,

but the state want, there's a meltdown.

I usually don't use entire clips here,

but this is about a minute and 10.

It's worth your time.

This has turned into such a big deal with RFK in the race,

because they're now afraid Trump could actually win

that second district due to RFK siphoning votes off,

that they are freaking out about a 269-269 scenario

that gets kicked to the house.

They won't say that, that that's the RFK thing.

They'll hint at it, but that's why Messina in this clip

is losing his marbles.

Check this out.

that would no longer allocate the electoral votes

by congressional district.

Because right now it's five votes there.

Yeah.

So the Republicans get four

and President Biden Democrats get the one from Omaha.

If that changes, and we don't know that it will,

it's the state legislature is going to look at it.

But if that changes,

that takes away Biden's best path to win.

Because if you get, if he wins Wisconsin,

Pennsylvania, Michigan, but loses the other swing states

and no longer picks up the one in Nebraska, 269,

that leads playbook this morning,

the alarm among Democrats that this is possible.

What do you think?

They're now changing the rules in the middle

of trying to benefit themselves.

This is the hell that Donald Trump hath wrought.

In the middle of this, changing the rules 200 days

before the election is ridiculous.

I think you're right.

I think there are real simulation problems.

When you look at the map, that one electoral vote

really matters in the combination of other things.

Then you need another state.

And so the easiest pathway to victory

has always been the Midwestern three states

combined with Nebraska.

Something tells me they're not gonna get away

with it this easy.

And there will be a national outcry

if they're trying to change the rules here.

But it looks like.

I hope you understand that.

but there are moments like this,

There's gonna be a national outcry.

Bro, are you for real?

A national, this is the same party

that is pushed in multiple states

to actually remove the presumptive GOP nominee

from the ballot.

And just to be clear, we're taking advice from this asshole?

There's gonna be a national,

and here's the funny thing.

Chatsters, you know this is true too.

There are some swampy Republicans, the biggest,

oh, you know I wanna say the word so bad,

worst bags in the world who will be like,

hey man, I don't know if we should do that in Nebraska.

People get upset, people get upset.

They're raiding people's houses.

You got a bunch of people in a gulag in Washington, D.C.

You got Navarro and Bannon doing potential jail,

Navarro's in jail.

You got Bannon being charged.

You had the president being spied on.

We're worried about a national outcry?

Someone should play that clip over and over and go,

yes, please, outcry nationally.

How many shits do you think I give

about your national outcry?

Anybody have a guess?

Anyone in the chat have a guess about

how many shits we should all give here?

The answer is zero.

Zero shits.

Good, zero.

Someone wrote two.

Is that an official number we should give to it?

The number's zero.

Yeah, somebody's, exactly.

Someone was probably talking about

answering a totally different question.

That's a good, that's a good, zero.

Zero, zero, zero shits, folks.

When I say, listen, some of,

it annoys about 10% of the audience,

but it's okay, I can't please everyone.

When I say cutesy time is over, this is what I mean.

The Dan Bongino Show.

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