Hurricane Hilary, Mortgage Rates, Summit Reaction

2023-08-19 00:15:45

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4Speaker 4
00:01.86 – 00:06.44

It could be the first tropical storm to hit California in more than 80 years.

3Speaker 3
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Now called Hurricane Hillary, it's threatening high winds and dangerous flooding when it

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comes ashore later this weekend.

4Speaker 4
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I'm Scott Simon.

3Speaker 3
00:15.18 – 00:18.34

I'm Aisha Roscoe, and this is Up First from NPR News.

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The storm is expected to weaken as it moves toward Mexico's Baja Peninsula, but still

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drench southern California, southwestern Arizona, and southern Nevada.

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We have the details.

4Speaker 4
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The rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is at its highest level in 21 years.

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What that might mean for homeowners and hopefuls in a minute.

3Speaker 3
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And a gathering at Camp David, what the U.S., Japan, and South Korea discussed at the presidential

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retreat.

4Speaker 4
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So please stay with us.

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We've got the news you need to start your weekend.

01:00.64 – 01:05.70

A tropical storm watch has been issued for southern California, the first ever.

01:06.68 – 01:11.38

Hurricane Hillary is making its way up towards Mexico's Baja Peninsula and is expected to

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pass into the U.S. on Sunday evening as a tropical storm.

3Speaker 3
01:15.58 – 01:21.02

The National Weather Service says, quote, life-threatening flooding is likely, and scientists

01:21.02 – 01:26.32

say human-caused global warming can make intense storms like Hillary more common.

01:26.96 – 01:30.82

NPR climate desk's Julia Simon joins us now.

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Julia, thank you for being with us.

2Speaker 2
01:33.02 – 01:33.62

Thank you, Aisha.

3Speaker 3
01:34.08 – 01:40.66

So we can't yet officially say this storm is the result of climate change, but we can

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look at the link between humanity and severe weather, which seems to be happening a lot

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lately, right?

2Speaker 2
01:49.18 – 01:55.22

We know that humans burning fossil fuels means that the whole Earth is heating up, and the

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ocean stores a lot of that heat.

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When ocean water is extra hot, it's easier for these big hurricanes to form, that hot

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water is sort of a fuel and energy source for hurricanes.

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So it makes it more likely that an intense storm like Hurricane Hillary will form.

3Speaker 3
02:13.98 – 02:16.50

So how hot are ocean waters right now?

2Speaker 2
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The ocean is a lot warmer than usual this summer.

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Forty percent of the world's oceans are experiencing heatwaves right now, according to federal

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researchers.

02:26.80 – 02:31.76

That's because of a natural climate pattern called El Nino and human-caused climate change.

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Part of the ocean that this storm formed over is around Baja California, Mexico, in the

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Pacific.

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Temperature anomalies there are part of what's been fueling this storm, says UCLA climate

02:43.50 – 02:44.98

scientist Daniel Swain.

1Speaker 1
02:44.98 – 02:49.82

The ocean temperatures off the coast of Baja California are much warmer than usual right

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now, as much as two to four centigrade or three to six Fahrenheit.

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That's a pretty significant increment of additional hurricane fuel.

2Speaker 2
02:56.56 – 03:02.50

Now scientists can't immediately say this storm is fueled by climate change as a storm

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is forming.

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But we do know that a really hot ocean can cause more intense storms that produce a lot

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of rain, and we're likely to see intense rain in the coming days in Southern California

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and the Southwest region.

3Speaker 3
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So big storms do sometimes happen on the West Coast.

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But again, this is the first time a tropical storm watch has been issued for Southern California.

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Is the area, which is your area, you're there right now, is everyone prepared?

2Speaker 2
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Forecasters have said that this storm could dump a year's worth of rain for the Southwest

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over a couple of days.

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Los Angeles officials had a press conference yesterday about storm preparations.

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They said they're working to help the unhoused community that live in vulnerable places like

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riverbeds.

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Here's Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna.

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Our department's personnel are also working to deploy personnel in the riverbeds to contact

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our unhoused population, our unhoused community, and connect them with interim housing resources.

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Luna also noted some additional precautions for communities at risk of landslides, like

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an area called Palos Verdes, which was already seeing landslides this summer.

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The big issue might be that a lot of Southwestern communities aren't built for big storms like

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Hillary.

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The infrastructure was built for storms of the past.

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Climate change means we're seeing many new risks.

3Speaker 3
04:32.44 – 04:37.40

Julia, right now, what should people be looking out for, especially in areas that don't

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normally get rain totals like the ones forecasters say may happen later this weekend and into

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the next week?

2Speaker 2
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Flooding is the number one killer in hurricanes.

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So thing to remember, don't drive into standing water.

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Turn around, don't drown is the message.

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There's a high probability of flash flooding on Sunday and Monday in Southern California.

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So people here should pay attention to flood alerts, evacuation orders.

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Also, a risk of landslides, especially in places with burn scars from wildfires.

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There's still a lot of uncertainty about the exact course of the storm, but generally make

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sure you have these alerts set up in your phone.

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Charge your devices.

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Get gas now.

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L.A. County officials said people can get sandbags at local fire stations.

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Make sure you have water, food, are checking in with loved ones and neighbors, and have

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your bags packed for your family and pets if you need to evacuate.

3Speaker 3
05:34.28 – 05:34.98

Yeah.

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A lot of people think with these storms, it's the winds, but it's really the flooding.

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That's the that's the most dangerous.

2Speaker 2
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It's so dangerous.

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Yes.

3Speaker 3
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If big storms like this are what we expect in the future, then what options are there

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to better protect people, especially for places that aren't built for this sort of weather?

?Unknown Speaker
05:54.10 – 05:54.36

Yeah.

2Speaker 2
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Humans have agency here.

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It's really important that as we build new infrastructure, we think about the possibility

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of intense storms like this one hitting places that might not have hit before.

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If humans stop emitting greenhouse gases today, there will still be some warming into mid-century

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baked in.

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But by cutting climate pollution now, we can avoid worse outcomes in the future.

3Speaker 3
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That's Julia Simon of NPR's Climate Desk.

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Julia, thank you so much.

2Speaker 2
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Thank you.

3Speaker 3
06:32.80 – 06:37.54

Are you scanning real estate ads or heading out to an open house this weekend?

06:37.82 – 06:40.48

You may be in for a rude awakening.

06:40.92 – 06:45.18

This week, mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in more than two decades.

4Speaker 4
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And that's pressing some would-be buyers out of the market and forcing others to rethink

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what kind of house they can afford.

06:53.46 – 06:56.32

NPR Chief Economics Correspondent Scott Horsley joins us.

06:56.70 – 06:58.18

Scott, thanks so much for being with us.

1Speaker 1
06:58.56 – 06:59.26

Good morning, Scott.

4Speaker 4
06:59.26 – 07:01.08

How much have mortgage rates gone up?

1Speaker 1
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The mortgage giant Freddie Mac says the average rate on a 30-year fixed home loan this week

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is just over 7%.

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That's the highest it's been since 2002.

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A year ago, the average rate was just over 5%.

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And two years ago, it was less than 3%.

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What this means for a homebuyer is the same monthly payment that would have bought a $400,000

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house last summer will only stretch to a $325,000 house today.

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So that's a big adjustment for a lot of would-be buyers to wrap their heads around.

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Just ask realtor Lee Brown, who works with a lot of first-time buyers around Charlotte,

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North Carolina.

2Speaker 2
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The first thing they have to get over is this sense of regret for not having purchased while

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interest rates were low.

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There's a lot of people who, man, I just should have done it a couple of years ago.

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And so that regret can get in the way of making good decisions.

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And so I have to remind buyers that what feels expensive today is probably going to feel

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like a bargain 10 years from now.

1Speaker 1
07:57.60 – 07:59.54

That's assuming home prices continue to climb.

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Brown tries to reassure clients to just keep looking at a lower price point.

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Maybe that would mean settling for less house, more of a fixer-upper.

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It's also an opportunity, she says, to get more creative on the financing side.

4Speaker 4
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What is creative financing?

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I mean, how does that work?

1Speaker 1
08:16.26 – 08:21.00

Well, maybe it means putting less money down and using some of the money you'd save for

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a down payment to instead buy a lower interest rate.

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Depending on how long you plan to stay in a house, that might make financial sense.

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Also, if you're buying from someone who has a VA loan, you can assume that loan even if

08:33.60 – 08:36.84

you weren't in the military, and that would probably carry a lower interest rate.

4Speaker 4
08:37.38 – 08:39.58

Scott, what's pushed up mortgage rates so much?

1Speaker 1
08:40.46 – 08:45.32

Mortgage rates tend to rise and fall with the yield on 10-year treasuries, and that

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yield was up this week.

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This is indirectly tied to the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation.

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The bond market now thinks to do that, the Fed's going to have to leave its own interest

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rates higher for longer, so bondholders are demanding a higher return, and that's feeding

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over into mortgage rates.

4Speaker 4
09:02.32 – 09:06.84

Can you forecast what the overall effect of this might be on the housing market?

1Speaker 1
09:07.18 – 09:08.44

Yeah, this is going to weigh on the market.

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Home sales are already down.

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Sales in June were down almost 19% from a year ago.

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Not only are a lot of buyers sitting on the sidelines, but so are a lot of sellers.

09:18.20 – 09:22.30

Steve Jolly, who's a realtor in Nashville, says anybody who bought or refinanced their

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home in the last few years probably has a really low interest rate that they don't want

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to give up.

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These low interest rates are almost like golden handcuffs.

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People don't want to get rid of that because if they want to buy up and buy a nicer home,

5Speaker 5
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what they're going to have to pay is going to be thousands of more dollars per month

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in mortgage.

1Speaker 1
09:41.12 – 09:44.94

So, the housing market is definitely less frenzied now than it was a couple of years

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ago.

09:45.24 – 09:46.64

Now, that's not all bad.

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Buyers and sellers have a bit more time now to catch their breath, maybe get an inspection,

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negotiate a little bit more.

09:53.36 – 09:56.60

Fewer home sales does have ripple effects elsewhere in the economy, though.

09:56.72 – 10:00.62

It usually means people are buying less furniture, for example, and fewer appliances as well.

4Speaker 4
10:01.10 – 10:04.86

And what are the implications for people who had intended, at least, to build new houses?

1Speaker 1
10:05.64 – 10:07.18

Home builders are busy right now.

10:07.28 – 10:10.76

More people are looking at newly built houses because there are so few existing homes on

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the market.

10:11.10 – 10:15.54

There are also more than a million apartments under construction right now, which is the

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most we've seen in decades.

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And as those come online, that should put downward pressure on rents, which is at least

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a little good news for people who are priced out of the housing market.

4Speaker 4
10:24.52 – 10:26.28

And Pierre Scott Horsley, thanks so much.

1Speaker 1
10:26.62 – 10:26.98

You're welcome.

3Speaker 3
10:37.08 – 10:43.20

And finally, today, we take you to Camp David in Maryland by way of Seoul, South Korea.

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President Biden met with the leaders of South Korea and Japan yesterday at the presidential

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retreat.

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The goal was to form a partnership that would be a new force in the Asia-Pacific region.

4Speaker 4
10:55.02 – 10:58.36

Japan and South Korea have some longstanding animosities.

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And the hope on the part of the U.S. is they can put some of those aside in the face of

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threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

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And President Anthony Kuhn is in Seoul.

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Thanks so much for being with us, Anthony.

5Speaker 5
11:09.58 – 11:10.50

Nice to join you, Scott.

4Speaker 4
11:10.60 – 11:12.72

And what has reaction been there to the summit?

5Speaker 5
11:13.24 – 11:18.00

The main reaction in Asia seems to be that the summit is unprecedented, but it's also

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largely symbolic.

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And the symbolism the three countries want to convey is that they are united in countries

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such as North Korea, China, and Russia will not be able to exploit the differences between

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them.

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Now, one of the outcomes is what the U.S. is calling a commitment to consult among the

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three nations about potential threats.

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So in the event of, for example, a North Korean nuclear test or a disruption to supply chains,

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the three will consult and coordinate their responses.

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There will also be annual three-way leadership summits and military drills.

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I think everyone is clear that this is not a three-way alliance under discussion.

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It's still two bilateral alliances between the U.S. and Japan and between the U.S. and

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Korea.

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And that's because there is still not enough trust between Japan and Korea to support a

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bilateral alliance with each other or a three-way alliance with the U.S.

4Speaker 4
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With that lack of trust, how did the summit come about?

5Speaker 5
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Well, the mistrust is left over from Japan's colonial occupation of Korea from 1910 to

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1945.

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During World War II, for example, Japan's military forced Korean and other women into

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sexual slavery.

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Thousands of Koreans were conscripted as forced laborers.

12:30.40 – 12:34.46

And South Korea's President Yun Sung-yeol essentially said that if Japan is not going

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to compensate these forced laborers, then South Korea will.

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Japan insisted and laid the matter to rest when the two countries normalized relations

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in the 1960s.

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But this remains a major sticking point between the two.

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And most South Koreans want Japan, not South Korea, to compensate Koreans.

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Despite this, the two countries held their first summit meetings in 12 years in March.

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And Washington, which had been nudging them to do it, is delighted.

4Speaker 4
13:00.72 – 13:05.50

Deals reached at Camp David are supposed to survive any subsequent changes in political

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administrations and public opinion that occur in democracies.

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Can they really do that?

5Speaker 5
13:12.56 – 13:13.38

Anything could happen.

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But the Biden administration is trying to lock in the progress that's been made by institutionalizing

13:19.26 – 13:19.44

it.

13:19.48 – 13:23.02

And here's how National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan put it to reporters.

2Speaker 2
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Every leader is going to have to make decisions, but the architecture, the framework, the structure

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that's being put in place now, from our perspective, has a tailwind behind it that will propel

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it forward and be very difficult to knock off course.

5Speaker 5
13:37.06 – 13:41.28

Now, of course, there is concern in Japan and South Korea about another Trump administration

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or someone like him who has questioned the value of alliances.

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And it's also rare that you get this alignment of leaders in Japan and South Korea that is

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so friendly to each other.

4Speaker 4
13:51.74 – 13:56.42

Anthony, how might this agreement affect ties among North Korea, China and Russia?

5Speaker 5
13:57.26 – 14:02.10

Yes, well, the Camp David summit documents call out Russia over its war on Ukraine, North

14:02.10 – 14:06.44

Korea for its nuclear weapons and China for its activities around Taiwan and the South

14:06.44 – 14:07.14

China Sea.

14:07.82 – 14:10.88

Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow are, of course, not happy about the summit.

14:11.02 – 14:12.40

They're tightening their cooperation.

14:13.10 – 14:17.26

The U.S. claims that North Korea is already supplying Russia with arms for use in Ukraine.

14:17.96 – 14:22.20

Russia and China, meanwhile, occasionally stage joint military drills around South Korea

14:22.20 – 14:24.20

and Japan, probing the allies' defenses.

14:24.54 – 14:27.52

So the summit could strengthen these rival blocs.

4Speaker 4
14:27.80 – 14:29.60

And here's Anthony Kuhn in Seoul.

14:29.74 – 14:31.04

Thanks so much for being with us.

5Speaker 5
14:31.04 – 14:31.90

Thank you.

3Speaker 3
14:36.02 – 14:39.18

And that's Up First for August 19th, 2023.

14:39.58 – 14:40.66

I'm Aisha Roscoe.

4Speaker 4
14:40.74 – 14:41.76

And I'm Scott Simon.

14:42.00 – 14:44.62

Aisha, what's on tomorrow's episode of Up First?

3Speaker 3
14:45.00 – 14:50.12

It's the story of the first visit to the edge of the widest glacier in the world.

14:50.42 – 14:52.64

And it's not just the edge of a glacier.

14:52.96 – 14:56.80

It's a calving edge, as in it's breaking off.

14:57.36 – 15:01.38

The glacier is in Antarctica and we'll tell you why it's under threat.

4Speaker 4
15:01.82 – 15:07.24

Today's episode of Up First was edited by Nila Banerjee, Rafael Naum, Peter Granitz

15:07.24 – 15:08.02

and Ed McNulty.

3Speaker 3
15:08.32 – 15:13.70

It was produced by Michael Radcliffe and directed by Danny Hensel with engineering support from

15:13.70 – 15:14.42

Hannah Glovna.

4Speaker 4
15:14.80 – 15:17.02

Evie Stone is our senior supervising editor.

15:17.26 – 15:19.46

Our executive producer is Sarah Lucy Oliver.

15:20.12 – 15:22.32

Our deputy managing editor is Jim Kane.

3Speaker 3
15:22.32 – 15:27.86

And for more news and interviews, books and music, you know, go ahead, turn on that radio.

4Speaker 4
15:28.14 – 15:33.32

I mean, how can you resist Weekend Edition from NPR News on the air every Saturday and

15:33.32 – 15:33.96

Sunday morning.

15:34.10 – 15:38.10

You can find your NPR station at stations.npr.org.

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