Trump's Pardon Promise, The Islamic State's Iran Attack, Jeffrey Epstein Conspiracies

2024-01-05 00:13:13

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4Speaker 4
00:02.66 – 00:06.60

Donald Trump is making one campaign promise central to his bid for president.

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If elected, he'll issue pardons for rioters convicted in connection with the Jan. 6 attack

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on the U.S. Capitol.

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Can he do that, and would Congress or the courts have the power to stop him?

00:16.18 – 00:19.10

I'm Laila Fadl and this is Up First from NPR News.

00:21.28 – 00:26.18

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for a double suicide bombing that killed more

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than 80 people in Iran this week.

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The violent Sunni extremist group once controlled sprawling swaths of Iraq and Syria, but was

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largely dismantled.

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Why do they have their sights set on Iran?

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And a growing trove of court documents related to convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein

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has revived conspiracy theories.

00:45.58 – 00:48.42

What are people saying in the darkest corners of the web?

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01:47.08 – 01:52.94

This weekend marks three years since a mob of Trump supporters violently stormed the

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U.S. Capitol.

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Since the January 6th insurrection, around 900 people have pleaded guilty or been convicted

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of criminal charges stemming from that day.

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The FBI continues to make arrests every week.

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The future of those cases may now hinge on the presidential election.

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That's because Donald Trump has promised to pardon January 6th defendants if he returns

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to the White House.

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NPR's Tom Dreisbach has been covering the Capitol riots since that day, and he joins

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me now.

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Good morning.

1Speaker 1
02:20.00 – 02:20.56

Good morning, Lila.

4Speaker 4
02:20.78 – 02:24.60

So what exactly has Trump said about what he'll do with these cases?

1Speaker 1
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Well, at this point, Trump has fully embraced January 6th.

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At his very first campaign rally of the election cycle, he played a song featuring the voices

02:33.10 – 02:37.32

of January 6th defendants recorded from jail singing the Star Spangled Banner.

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Trump refers to these defendants as patriots and being politically persecuted in his view.

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He's also helped raise money for their cases, at least $10,000 that we know of.

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In his stump speech, Trump calls the defendants in prison hostages, and he's talked about

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freeing or pardoning these defendants.

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At one point, he even shared an image on social media that, quote, the cops should be charged

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and the protesters should be freed.

4Speaker 4
03:00.76 – 03:05.08

So has Trump said exactly which people he would pardon or for what charges?

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Is it all of them?

1Speaker 1
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Yeah, like a lot of Trump campaign promises.

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This one is a little bit vague.

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Trump has announced that pardons would come on day one of his presidency and that he would

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pardon, quote, a large portion of defendants outside of a couple.

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But beyond that, it gets sketchy.

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On Fox News last year, Brett Baier asked for specifics about rioters convicted of violent

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crimes.

4Speaker 4
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Would you also pardon the people who were convicted of assaulting officers?

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Well, you also have, I know we'd look at individual cases, but many of those people are very innocent

2Speaker 2
03:32.22 – 03:32.62

people.

4Speaker 4
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They did nothing wrong.

1Speaker 1
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Trump has also left the door open to pardoning the former leader of the extremist group,

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the Proud Boys.

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Enrique Tarrio was his name and he was convicted of seditious conspiracy and sentenced to 22

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years in prison.

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At times, Trump has said free all of the defendants.

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I asked the Trump campaign about this, but they didn't respond.

4Speaker 4
03:50.94 – 03:52.32

So what would that mean for these cases?

1Speaker 1
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Well, if Trump is elected, he would have the power to pardon each and every January 6th

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defendant if he wanted to.

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And legally, Congress and the courts would not be able to block him.

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Practically speaking, those pardons would mean halting ongoing cases, releasing people

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from prison or probation.

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And for the people convicted of felonies, that's hundreds of defendants, it would mean

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restoring the right to own guns.

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I should say that some of these defendants have expressed remorse, even renounced Trump,

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but others have further embraced conspiracy theories, white nationalism, anti-government

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extremism.

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One defendant told me that the government had made an enemy by arresting him.

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I talked about this with Tom Joslin.

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He was a senior staff member for the Congressional Select Committee that investigated January

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6th.

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And he's also an expert on counterterrorism.

2Speaker 2
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Certainly, by pardoning an untold number of people who committed violent acts, the likelihood

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of more violence certainly goes up.

4Speaker 4
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So Trump is also facing a criminal trial for trying to overturn the 2020 election.

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And prosecutors say his election lies fueled the January 6th riot.

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Where does Trump's own case fit into all this?

1Speaker 1
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Well, special counsel Jack Smith's team say they want to use Trump's support for these

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defendants against him in court.

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Basically, their argument is that Trump's support for the defendants shows his intent

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that he supported the storming of the Capitol and the violence to try and stay in power,

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even though he lost the 2020 election, of course.

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Now, we don't know whether prosecutors will be able to show that evidence to a jury, but

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in any event, we're waiting to see when that trial might go forward.

4Speaker 4
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That's NPR investigative correspondent Tom Dreisbach.

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Thanks so much, Tom.

1Speaker 1
05:22.30 – 05:22.58

Thanks.

4Speaker 4
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An Afghan branch of the violent extremist group Islamic State claimed responsibility

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for an attack this week in southeastern Iran that killed 84 people.

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The group says two of its members detonated suicide vests in a crowd of civilians who

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were marking the killing of a prominent Iranian general four years ago this week.

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The same group has said it was behind two previous attacks in Iran.

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NPR's Peter Kenyon joins us now from Istanbul to talk about this.

05:57.52 – 05:57.90

Hi, Peter.

2Speaker 2
05:58.30 – 05:58.78

Hi, Laila.

4Speaker 4
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So what more do we know about this Afghan branch of the Islamic State?

2Speaker 2
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Well, they call themselves Islamic State Khorasan Province, or ISKP.

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Now, Khorasan's a big province.

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It includes part of northern Afghanistan, parts of Iran and Turkmenistan.

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And this same group also said it was behind a shooting attack at a Shia shrine in Shiraz

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in 2000, 2022, and another one last year.

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Now, the governor of the Iranian province where the two shooting attacks occurred has

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said the second was in response to Iran executing the government from the first attack.

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And analysts say the group's motive is believed to be primarily sectarian.

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The ISKP is a Sunni Muslim group.

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Iran's population is predominantly Shia.

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And the ISKP considers Shias to be apostates.

06:40.80 – 06:44.50

This week's suicide bomb attack was by far the deadliest of the three.

4Speaker 4
06:44.50 – 06:51.84

So how significant is it that the attack targeted a crowd going to honor the late General Qasem

06:51.84 – 06:54.26

Soleimani that was killed by the U.S. back in 2020?

2Speaker 2
06:54.96 – 06:56.76

Well, there is a connection there, yes.

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Iranian officials credit Soleimani with playing a key role in fighting Islamic State forces

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in Syria and Iraq.

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Soleimani for years worked with militant groups designated as terrorists by Western countries.

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And of course, it was a coalition led by the United States and the so-called Syrian Democratic

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Forces that played a decisive role in eradicating ISIS from Syria and Iraq, effectively eliminating

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their so-called caliphate.

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But the fact that Iran gives credit to General Soleimani for having had an important role

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in ending ISIS control in those countries may help explain in part why the ISKP would

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target a ceremony honoring Soleimani's life and career.

4Speaker 4
07:32.70 – 07:36.60

Now, there were some early suggestions from Iranian officials that Israel could have been

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involved in the attack.

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But this claim would seem to eliminate that possibility, right?

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I mean, that's not on the table anymore.

2Speaker 2
07:41.76 – 07:46.30

Yes, and U.S. officials said from the start there was no evidence this bombing was an

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Israeli attack.

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Israel has launched attacks inside Iran over the years, but it has kept a narrow focus

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on its operations there.

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It's targeted Iranian nuclear scientists and facilities that are involved in Iran's nuclear

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program.

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In 2021, for instance, Iran blamed Israel for a mysterious explosion at the Natanz nuclear

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facility that knocked out the power there.

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Reports at the time said the operation was carried out by Israel's spy agency, the Mossad.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said then that there's no threat in the Middle East

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quote more serious, more dangerous, more pressing than that posed by what he called the fanatical

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regime in Iran.

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Now, Tehran has always maintained its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, and Israel has

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never been convinced by those declarations.

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Israeli officials have repeatedly said they will do what it takes to prevent Iran from

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acquiring a nuclear weapon.

08:34.00 – 08:38.18

Western officials say there's nothing to indicate Israel would have been behind an attack on

08:38.18 – 08:40.46

civilians at a ceremony for General Soleimani.

08:40.94 – 08:44.32

This claim by Islamic State, if confirmed, would seem to settle that question.

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This appears to have been a Sunni extremist group attacking Shia Muslims.

4Speaker 4
08:49.18 – 08:52.20

That's NPR's Peter Kenyon talking to us from Istanbul.

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Thank you, Peter.

2Speaker 2
08:53.14 – 08:53.70

Thanks, Leila.

4Speaker 4
09:02.98 – 09:07.96

This week, a federal judge unsealed court records disclosing more of the powerful and

09:07.96 – 09:12.70

wealthy associates allegedly connected to the convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.

09:12.96 – 09:18.16

He took his life four years ago, but new documents that lay out names and accusations against

09:18.16 – 09:22.48

some of his associates is putting Epstein's story back into the limelight.

09:22.94 – 09:26.04

And that's become an opportunity for conspiracy theorists.

09:26.56 – 09:28.56

NPR's Lisa Hagen is here to explain why.

09:28.62 – 09:29.04

Hi, Lisa.

3Speaker 3
09:29.76 – 09:30.08

Hi.

09:30.20 – 09:30.78

Good morning, Leila.

4Speaker 4
09:30.94 – 09:31.36

Good morning.

09:31.48 – 09:32.44

So we have this list.

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How is it being received in the most conspiratorial corners of the Internet?

3Speaker 3
09:38.02 – 09:42.84

So, ironically, in a moment when we're getting more information about the Epstein story,

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these names of powerful men allegedly associated with him, the biggest theme across conspiracist

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communities right now is that whatever we're being shown isn't the real story.

09:54.06 – 09:58.56

So a couple examples, some people are pushing the idea that a school shooting that took

09:58.56 – 10:04.32

place yesterday in Iowa was actually a staged event meant to distract the public from the

10:04.32 – 10:05.02

Epstein list.

10:05.18 – 10:09.50

And then you have other folks saying that the Epstein list itself is a distraction from

10:09.50 – 10:13.96

new alleged evidence of election fraud that proves Donald Trump is the rightful president.

4Speaker 4
10:14.24 – 10:15.34

Okay, but make this make sense.

10:15.40 – 10:16.88

I mean, these two claims sound contradictory.

10:17.12 – 10:20.04

Is the Epstein list the distraction or the thing being distracted from?

3Speaker 3
10:20.80 – 10:21.04

Right.

10:21.28 – 10:25.96

In the age of social media, conspiracy theories are a form of communal storytelling.

10:25.96 – 10:28.72

So they tend to have a lot of cooks in the kitchen.

10:29.50 – 10:34.44

Also, contradictions are very common because conspiracies are less about the details than

10:34.44 – 10:36.48

they are about a larger worldview.

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The central truth that matters is that you can't believe what you're shown.

10:41.00 – 10:43.92

It's what's being hidden from you that's really important.

10:44.20 – 10:47.92

So with Epstein, you have a really effective embodiment of that idea.

10:48.18 – 10:52.38

Here's Eric Oliver, a political science professor at the University of Chicago.

2Speaker 2
10:52.38 – 10:58.44

You had this notorious sex trafficker who was in league with all sorts of rich and powerful

10:58.44 – 11:03.14

people who dies under mysterious circumstances in federal custody.

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I mean, that's just ripe for any kind of conspiracy narrative.

3Speaker 3
11:08.48 – 11:12.98

And so whatever kind of contradictions swirl around him in moments like this just go to

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show what a malleable and useful character Epstein has become.

4Speaker 4
11:16.98 – 11:17.78

Useful to who?

3Speaker 3
11:18.62 – 11:22.40

Researchers like Oliver often refer to conspiracy entrepreneurs.

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These are people who gain money and influence by spreading conspiracist beliefs.

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And there are entire networks of influencers and media outlets devoted to posing as sources

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of this, you know, supposedly hidden knowledge.

4Speaker 4
11:36.08 – 11:38.62

Now, making money off this stuff is one thing.

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But why else does this matter to the many people who don't buy into these conspiracy

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theories?

3Speaker 3
11:43.52 – 11:48.82

Experts will tell you that the same magical thinking that drives belief in one conspiracy

11:48.82 – 11:53.72

theory often makes people vulnerable to others, some of which cause real damage in the world.

11:53.96 – 11:59.72

Like, for example, debunked claims that vaccines cause more harms than good or the big lie

11:59.72 – 12:03.32

that the presidential election was rigged against Trump.

12:04.68 – 12:08.14

Conspiracy thinking also detracts from real political engagement.

12:08.14 – 12:12.28

You know, being skeptical of power is actually really important to a democracy.

12:12.54 – 12:18.14

But all the energy that goes into posting and amplifying unfounded claims does not generally

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translate into meaningful policy change or helping people who need it.

4Speaker 4
12:22.86 – 12:24.18

NPR's Lisa Hagen.

12:24.30 – 12:24.78

Thank you, Lisa.

3Speaker 3
12:25.20 – 12:25.60

Thanks.

4Speaker 4
12:29.94 – 12:32.68

And that's Up First for Friday, January 5th.

12:32.70 – 12:33.68

I'm Laila Faldil.

12:33.68 – 12:38.62

And today's episode of Up First was edited by Barry Hardiman, Mark Katkov, and Brett

12:38.62 – 12:38.94

Neely.

12:39.30 – 12:42.60

It was produced by Ziad Butch, Ben Abrams, and Lindsey Toddy.

12:42.92 – 12:47.66

We get engineering support from Phil Edfors, and our technical director is Zach Coleman.

12:48.06 – 12:49.56

Start your day here with us on Monday.

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And don't forget, Up First airs on Saturday, too.

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It'll be wherever you get your podcasts.

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