Yellowstone After the Floods

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In June of 2022, the rivers of Yellowstone's northern range unleashed a devastating flood, shattering century-long records and leaving a trail of destruction in its wake. This natural disaster not only disrupted park operations, but also raised important questions about its cause, the likelihood of future floods and the need for early detection.

Today, we dive into the aftermath of the flood and explore the efforts to understand, predict and mitigate such events in Yellowstone National Park.

I'm Jason Epperson and this is the America's National Parks podcast.

Established in 1872, Yellowstone National Park is not only the first national park in the U.

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But also the first national park in the world, covering over 2.2 million acres of land, the park spans three states—Wyoming, Montana and Idaho. It's renowned for its stunning landscapes, diverse wildlife and iconic geothermal features, such as the famous old Faithful geyser. However, in June of 2022, Yellowstone faced an unprecedented challenge when the rivers in the park began to rise. The floodwaters wreaked havoc, causing widespread damage and forcing Yellowstone to temporarily close its doors to visitors.

To understand the causes of this natural disaster and its implications for the future, park officials and scientists embarked on a journey of analysis and exploration. The thrust of today's episode comes from an article written for Park Science Magazine by Ali Morris, Teodoro Rattu, David Thoma, Anne Roadman, Mike Tercek and Andrew Ray. In the aftermath of the devastating Yellowstone floods, these scientists examined historical river flows, posing the question Could their insights help predict future events? In the morning of June 13, 2022, the rivers in Yellowstone National Park began to rise. Recognizing the potential danger, park officials made the difficult decision to close the park temporarily, prioritizing the safety of visitors and staff.

The floodwaters caused extensive damage throughout the northern range, roads were washed out, bridges collapsed and power was lost in many areas. The force of the rivers even resulted in the displacement of a park housing unit, which was carried downstream by the powerful currents. Up in Gardner, Montana, the scale of the destruction was significant, temporarily isolating residents and visitors in Gardner and Cook City. Despite the challenges, Yellowstone's dedicated team worked tirelessly to rebuild and open the park to visitors.

In just nine days, the Southern Loop was accessible again, and by July 2, 93 of the park's roadways had reopened. After months of hard work, the North Entrance welcomed the public back on October 30. However, the experience of the 2022 floods highlighted the need for a different approach to infrastructure design and management. Bob Camel, the chief of professional services at Yellowstone National Park, emphasized the importance of considering climate change and its potential impacts on future flood events. With increasing frequency, intensity and impact, floods like the one in 2022 may become more common.

As a result, infrastructure must be designed and adapted to withstand such challenges. Camel's insights illustrate the critical role of proactive planning and resilience in the face of a changing climate. One, Yellowstone Park ranger, Tom Schwartz, acknowledged that an early warning system would have been incredibly valuable during the floods. The ability to anticipate and prepare for such events could potentially save lives and minimize damage. With this in mind, scientists and researchers turned to advancing, modeling and analysis to understand the factors that contributed to the 2022 floods and explore the possibility of developing an early warning system.

To gain a deeper understanding of the floods, scientists delved into the historical flow records of the Northern Range rivers in Yellowstone, specifically the Gardiner, Lamar and Yellowstone rivers. These rivers have been monitored for approximately a century, providing valuable data on flow variations over time. By comparing the 2022 flood with past records, researchers aimed to contextualize the magnitude of the event and identify any long-term trends. The analysis revealed that the flood in the Yellowstone River in 2022 exceeded all previous floods recorded since 1890. At the Corwin Springs gauge, the volumetric flow rate during the flood was 50 higher than the previous record, equivalent to 17,000 cubic feet per second.

The enormity of this flood led to its classification as a 500-year flow event. Now, that doesn't mean that this is something that happens once every 500 years. It basically means there's a 1 in 500 chance of it happening in a given year. So it's important to note that a 500-year flow designation doesn't imply that a flood of similar magnitude won't occur sooner. In fact, with changing climate patterns, there's an increased likelihood of more frequent extreme precipitation events.

By examining high flow trends over time, researchers discovered that flows in the 95th percentile, which represent flows greater than 95 of daily flows, had been increasing in size. This means that a 95th percentile flow in 2022 was larger than a 95th percentile flow in 1922. Moreover, the timing of high flows has been shifting, with the peak flow date occurring on average every 11 years. For the major northern range rivers, these findings indicate that the baseline conditions of the rivers in Yellowstone are changing. Past flow data alone is no longer sufficient to predict future flood events accurately.

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Hydrologic models are a powerful tool used to study how water moves through the environment. By inputting temperature and precipitation data, these models can simulate the storage as snow, snowmelt, rates, soil, moisture levels, and runoff. This information is critical for predicting and anticipating future floods. In the case of Yellowstone National Park, scientists have developed a hydrologic model to analyze the movement of water through the northern range. By incorporating temperature and precipitation data, the model can estimate the amount and timing of precipitation stored as snow, along with those soil moisture levels and stream flow.

To validate the accuracy of the model, scientists compared its estimates to stream gauge measurements taken at the Lamar River from 1988 to 2022. The results were promising, with the model providing accurate estimates of stream flow. In most cases, however, it underestimated the peak flow during the 2022 flood compared to the gauge-measured. This discrepancy arose because the model didn't account for the rain-on-snow effect, where rain falling on snowpack adds to the runoff. Researchers are now working on incorporating this crucial factor into the model to improve its accuracy.

By combining the hydrologic model with real-time precipitation forecasts, scientists hope to gain valuable lead time for flood warnings. Since there is a lag between peak precipitation and the resulting flooding. This advanced modeling approach can provide alerts several days ahead, giving park officials and residents more time to prepare and respond. The ability to predict flood sizes associated with approaching storms is a significant step forward in flood preparedness. Scientists can simulate different scenarios using design storms and assess the likely based on storm size and soil water content. This real-time information can aid in issuing timely alerts and warnings to mitigate those potential risks.

The efforts to understand and predict floods in Yellowstone National Park are part of a broader initiative to address the increasing challenges posed by climate change and extreme weather. Superintendent Cam Sholley emphasized the need for better preparation in the face of future impacts. He said the 2022 floods served as a wake-up call, prompting a shift in the way people discuss climate change and its implications. The insights gained from the research on the 2022 floods not only helped Yellowstone, but also contribute to a broader scientific understanding of flood frequency and size in the face of climate change. By examining the historical data and developing advanced modeling techniques, scientists are better equipped to predict and mitigate the impacts of future events anywhere.

All these findings highlight the importance of adaptive management and infrastructure design as the climate continues to change. Park managers must consider the potential for more frequent and intense flood events when planning and designing infrastructure within the park. By integrating climate change considerations into their decision-making processes. They can build more resilient structures and develop strategies to safeguard the park's resources and visitors. This research also underscores the critical role of collaboration between scientists, park officials and land managers. Through partnerships and the sharing of knowledge and data, they can collectively work towards a more predictable future.

The National Park Service recognizes the urgency of addressing climate change and its impacts on park resources, economies, and recreational access. By learning from events like the 2022 floods, they can adapt and develop strategies to protect and preserve these national treasures for future generations. As we conclude this episode, it's clear that the floods in Yellowstone in 2022 served as a catalyst for change. They emphasize the need for proactive planning, resilience, and the integration of scientific research into decision-making by analyzing historic flow records, developing advanced modeling techniques, and incorporating real-time data. Scientists and park officials are working together for a future where floods can be predicted, prepared for and their impacts mitigated.

This episode of America's National Parks was written by Chris Lin. Peter Hsien is the author of our theme Music and I'm Your host, Jason Epperson. If you enjoyed the show, please consider leaving us a rating and review. If you're new here, make sure to subscribe to the podcast to get new episodes delivered to your feed. If you're looking for photos and tips about visiting national parks, check out our America's National Parks Facebook Group.

And if you're interested in RV travel, we hope you'll also check out our RV Miles podcast and YouTube channel. Today's show was sponsored by L..L. Bean. Follow the hashtag Be an Outsider and visit LLbean.com to find great gear for exploring the national parks. And by Campendium.

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