The winners and losers of the first GOP debate

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If former President Trump is convicted in a court of law, would you still support him as your party's choice?

Donald Trump decided to skip out on this first debate, and he signaled he may not turn up at any more in the future.

Trump made the announcement on social media yesterday afternoon, writing The public knows who I am and what successful a presidency I had. I will therefore not be doing the debates plural.

He instead chose to sit down for an interview with former Fox News superstar Tucker Carlson, which aired at the same time as the debate.

There's a level of passion that I've never seen, there's a level of hatred that I've never seen, and that's probably a bad combination.

So did any of the other candidates manage to grab anyone's attention? Does it even matter what's the point of televised debates if the frontrunner refuses to get on the stage? I'm Joni Grieve in for Jonathan Friedland, and this is The Guardian's Politics Weekly America.

Former Vice President Mike Pence.

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

None of the candidates on that stage are making a case for why they are the best Republican candidate to take on to take on Joe Biden.

Tara Settmayer is a political commentator who once worked as a communications director for a Republican congressman on Capitol Hill.

In some ways was I intrigued to see how they would behave without Trump on the stage. Yes and no. They've demonstrated that they don't have the strength, the intestinal fortitude to take him on directly, whether he's there or not. It would have been the perfect opportunity with him not there to pile on legitimately. About why he would not make a good nominee for the GOP and why he shouldn't be president again. But they didn't really take that opportunity, except for Asa Hutchinson and.

CHRis Christie So Trump wasn't there, as we've established, but there were eight candidates on the stage. We've already mentioned a couple of them, but just to go down the full list. They were Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, former U...N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, also of South Carolina. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Tara, put yourself into the mindset of the Comms teams for each of these candidates.

Spotlight It was 100 percent. Ron Desantis.

We cannot succeed as a country if you are working hard and you can't afford groceries, a car or a new home. While Hunter Biden can make hundreds of thousands of dollars on lousy paintings.

DESantis was kinged, you know, was crowned, excuse me, the heir apparent. Back in the fall, when Republicans didn't perform as well as they thought they would in the midterm elections. A lot of that had to do with the albatross that Donald Trump and Trumpism has become for the Republican Party in some of these elections. And a lot of the Republican establishment and donor class thought that Ron DeSantis and his conservative agenda would translate and that he could take on Donald Trump. But they quickly realized, once Ron DeSantis declared as a candidate, that he actually wasn't very good at any of it. I think Ron DeSantis, given all of the fits and starts of his campaign, it started off complicated.

And we want to welcome you to this historic Twitter Spaces event.

And, more broadly, a first in the history of social media.

Tonight, I'm pleased to introduce two individuals who've done more to loosen the.

Grip and with mistakes with his announcement on Twitter and technical difficulties. Sorry about that.

We, we've got so many people here, so let's see if we just keep crashing.

And then the fundraising has begun to falter a little bit because big donors are leaving him. Because he just has not been able to live up to the expectations that many in the party had of him being the Trump killer. So I think that was he had the most to lose and given his performance, I don't think it helped him at all of anything. It reinforced that he's a weak candidate and I think it's the beginning of the end for Ron DeSantis.

Yeah, it felt pretty telling that almost immediately after the debate, there was this clip going around the internet showing Desantis with this pained expression on his face as he apparently tries to smile to the camera. It didn't really seem like he was helping him to cultivate the image of the man who could defeat Trump.

No, not at all. The more you watch Ron DeSantis interact with people with with voters in interviews, the more you realize that he really is uncomfortable around people. He's somewhat smug, he's condescending.

You do not have to wear those masks. I mean, please, honestly, it's not doing anything. We've got to stop with this.

You want to wear it all, right?

But this is a this is ridiculous.

He hides behind this tough guy attitude, feels like he's always yelling at people. That doesn't translate well. Voting and connecting with voters and candidates, it's an emotional appeal.

I pledge to you as your president, we will get the job done and I will not let you.

Down, including the little smile at the end, almost like, you know, look at me, I did it. It's it's very uncomfortable and almost, almost sad for someone who had such high expectations. And in Republican establishment circles, he's clearly not up to the task.

And looking at the field beyond Desantis, do you think there were any standouts at?

The debate? There were a couple of surprises for me, to be frank, I was was surprised at how sharp and aggressive Mike Pence came across.

Every day, for four years, I sought to keep that oath. And everyone on this stage needs to make it clear whether or not they'll do the same. If they earn this job and the confidence of the American people.

I'm not a big fan of Mike Pence, his sycophancy during the Trump administration. It was insufferable, but he did do the right thing on January 6th. And he's very cognizant of his place in history, and that's clear. And it's clear that he also has very personal convictions and beliefs, and certain issues animate him.

Now is not the time for on the job training. We don't need to bring in a rookie.

We don't need to bring in people without experience.

Between his pushback, Nikki Haley was also another standout performance. I think she came across as as in command, she knew her facts, her foreign policy experience came through. And she was another one who had a few more than one memorable lines last night.

First of all, the American president needs to have moral clarity. They need to know the difference between right and wrong, They need to know the difference between good and evil.

Those are the debate moments that you want. So I think it was Nikki Haley and Mike Pence who were that were the biggest standouts.

In in the debate, and I wanted to ask you about Vivek Ramaswamy, who you already mentioned. He is the 38 year old biotech entrepreneur who has now pulled into a distant third place in national polling. What did you make of all the criticism of him at the debate?

Vivek Ramaswamy is clearly in this. For the attention, it was more apparent during the debate that he is wholly unqualified to be president of the United States. He's a know-nothing, blowhard car salesman type, and he likes to hear himself talk.

Now that everybody's gotten their memorized, pre-prepared slogans out of the way, we can actually have a real discussion now.

The reality of the fact of the matter is.

Was that one of yours? Not really, Mike, actually. We're just going to have some fun tonight and the reality is so.

And it shows, you know what?

Her line about you have no experience in foreign policy, and it shows, was the zinger of the night and that shut him down. Chris Christie as well from New Jersey.

I've had enough already tonight of a guy who sounds like Chachi P.

Standing up, he invited that if you're going to dish it, you're going to have to take it. But he didn't come across as a serious person, he was more interested in in getting insults out. And, you know, some of his policy positions were quite alarming, particularly on foreign policy.

Mr. Ramaswamy, you would not support an increase of funding to Ukraine? I would not. And I think that this is disastrous. That we are protecting against an invasion across somebody else's border when we should use those same military resources to prevent across the invasion of our own southern border. Here in the United States?

Those are positions that would are anathema to traditional Republican foreign policy. And it shows that if someone like that, with those types of views, can get on a debate stage and garner third place. It shows you how far the Republican Party has come from the days of Reagan and Bush.

And how do you think everyone fared when discussing the issue of abortion? They all seemed quick to say that they were pro-life. But they seemed really split on the idea of passing a federal abortion ban rather than leaving it up to individual states to decide on restrictions. How do you prepare a candidate to talk about potential federal legislation when polling keeps telling us that's a really unpopular idea with the electorate?

Yeah, another Republican position where states rights and the idea of states making these decisions was something that was a hallmark of traditional Republican positions. This idea of a federal abortion ban, I can tell you, as recent as 2015 or 2016, would have been unthinkable, it would have. It was a third rail in politics.

Thank you, Martha. I am unapologetically pro-life, not because the Republican Party tells me to be, but because my husband was adopted and I had trouble having both of my children. So I'm surrounded by blessings.

She still maintained her pro-life position. That's fine, that's, that's not outside the norm of Republican politics. She also talked about where she believed the cutoff should be.

Can't we all agree that we should ban late term abortions? Can't we all agree that we should encourage adoption?

But she also was pragmatic and honest. About the likelihood of something like, what they're proposing is a federal ban? The likelihood of that ever passing in the United States Senate or Congress?

When it comes to a federal ban, let's be honest with the American people and say it will take 60 Senate votes. It will take a majority of the House. So in order to do that, let's find consensus.

And she also acknowledged that we should not be demonizing women.

And can't we all agree that we are not going to put a woman in jail or give her the death penalty if she gets an abortion? Let's treat this like the like a respectful issue that it is, and humanize the situation and stop demonizing the situation.

It's a personal choice, you can have your personal beliefs about the morality of it. But we should not be demonizing women who are put in that position. She took the best position on the stage on that issue.

So overall, they filled the first hour or so with questions on issues like climate change, which the candidates looked fairly weak on. But the Fox News hosts Brett Baier and Martha McCallum had told us they were going to bring up the elephant, not in the room, as Baier called him. And I think this was the moment that Donald Trump himself and his supporters were really waiting for.

If former President Trump is convicted in a court of law, would you still support him as your party's choice? Please raise your hand if you would.

When the candidates were asked whether they would still support Trump as the Republican presidential nominee if he were convicted in at least one of his four criminal cases. Six out of the eight candidates raised their hands to signal that they would indeed still support Trump. How did you react to that moment, Tara?

I just shook my head. It was such a craven moment for every single one of those individuals who raised their hands. The idea of the Republican presidential candidates saying that they would pardon Donald Trump. A plenary power given to the President of the United States, uniquely in our Constitution, to absolve Donald Trump of what he has done to this country is disqualifying. In my opinion. They can't stand up for the Constitution, which is what their oath of office is about. Then they don't deserve the highest office in the land or to be the most powerful person in the world.

And that was one moment when Vivek Ramaswamy really chose to speak up. He said he would not only support Trump even in the event of a conviction, but he said he would actually pardon him on those charges.

Well, Mike, why don't you say this? Join me in making a commitment that on day one you would pardon Donald Trump. I'm the only candidate on this stage who had the courage to actually say it.

That is how we move our nation forward and turn the page forward.

That's exactly right. I don't know why you assume that Donald Trump will be convicted of these crimes.

Haley, though, I thought it was interesting, kind of tried to split the difference a little. She said she would support Trump as the nominee, but then she also said.

Three quarters of Americans don't want a rematch between Trump and Biden. And we have to face the fact that Trump is the most disliked politician in America. We can't win a general election that way.

In your mind, Tara, who were these answers for? Do you think they were directed at Republican voters, or do you think they were meant for Trump himself? Who will likely be on the lookout for a running mate in the not too distant future?

It was for both, and that's my point about being craven. The fact that they have to qualify. Their position on whether they would support Trump or not, or pardon him or not, it should be an unequivocal no. No, we would not.

But Chris Christie did actually stand up to Trump. And he was booed by some of the debate crowd when he tried to convince his opponents that Trump's behavior was, as he said, beneath the office of the President of the United States.

This is the great thing about this country. Booing is allowed, but it doesn't change the truth.

So Tara, for conservatives like you, who also think that Trump violated his oath of office, do you think Christie is the clear choice here?

Yes, but that they are few and far between in the Republican primary electorate. God bless Chris Christie for making this his crusade. He has no chance in hell of becoming the Republican nominee because of it. And that is problematic, I think for the country, that you have an entire Republican party, that boo, someone who's actually standing up for the rule of law. And someone like Chris Christie, who, I think in years past would have done much better if Chris Christie had taken this position against Donald Trump in 2016 and decided to train his fire on Donald Trump instead of Marco Rubio, because he thought that he would potentially get a position in the Trump administration.

And I want to talk about the polling. Because. Trump suggested that the reason he decided not to turn up to the debate was because, quote, the public knows who I am and what a successful presidency I had. I will therefore not be doing the debates. And he does have a point about the polling. Because even though polling doesn't tell us the whole story about an election, Trump is just so far ahead of the other candidates right now. Tara At this point, did this debate make any difference in this race?

No difference whatsoever. This did not move the needle for or against Donald Trump. He is, he is still the prohibitive front runner, and he was right. If you are an incumbent and you're beating your opponent by 40 50 points, you don't debate them. Because nothing good can happen on a debate stage.

But we'll see, and I'm glad you mentioned Tucker Carlson. It was a pretty bizarre spectacle.

Unsurprisingly, there was the usual name calling, with Trump referring to one opponent as a savage lunatic and another as weak and pathetic. No surprise, he argued. He's the only Republican who can beat Joe Biden. And accuse the radical left or Deep State, as he calls it, of heaping baseless charges on him to thwart his bid to reclaim the White House.

They talked about some conspiracy theories involving Jeffrey Epstein, for example. Who do you think got more out of that interview, Trump or Carlson?

Tucker, Carlson Tucker Carlson is looking for relevance since he was fired from Fox News very unceremoniously. He's been out of the fray. When he was the number one cable show host in the United States, with a very powerful platform that he no longer has. So he desperately needed that boost. Tucker Carlson has trafficked in some of these conspiracy theories in this very smug, like, I'm just asking questions kind of posture.

They started with protests against you, massive protests, organized protests by the left, and then it moved to impeachment twice, right, and now indictment. I mean, the next stage is is violence.

This is very dangerous, politically violent rhetoric we've already seen during the Trump administration. How what that can produce and also further supports why he's so disqualified from being president again.

Now, realistically, Trump's lawyers were probably delighted he spoke to Carlson instead of doing a live televised debate. On Thursday, he surrendered to a Fulton County jail, where he pleaded not guilty to racketeering and conspiracy charges over his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia. And it was reported that Trump had his lawyers negotiate the booking time to take place during the prime viewing hours for the cable news networks. So he could be beamed into the homes of his supporters, looking defiant. And that might seem like an odd political instinct, but the polls show that Trump's supporters have really rallied around him in the wake of these criminal charges.

They can't, and Trump knows that he is a very savvy politician in his in his ability to manipulate the media. Garner earned media attention and suck all the oxygen out of the room. And none of the other candidates running against him have that ability, which is why Trump will be the nominee. Which is why I say that these these Republican debates are really just political. Kabuki theater for second place or a position in the cabinet or vice president. But the idea that he would make this a media spectacle, that he's wearing these indictments and these arrests with a badge of valor, is the world turned upside down.

Our electorate. To wrap up, let's just do some quick one name answers here. Tara in your mind. Who lost the debate on Wednesday? Ron DESantis and who won the debate?

America, thank you for having me.

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