Who tanked the border bill?

This is The Guardian.

It's become one of the most divisive and pressing issues in U.S. politics. The border.

I think the real number is 15, 16 million people into our country. when they do that. We got a lot of work to do. They're poisoning the blood of our country. That's what they've done. They poisoned.

To urgently stem the record high number of illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border, a much-anticipated border bill was due to be voted on in the Senate this week. One, with support from Republicans, Democrats, and U.S. border officials. And yet, the $118 billion bill, which also promised significant aid packages to Ukraine and Israel, fell at the first hurdle. And who did Biden blame?

Donald Trump. He'd rather weaponize this issue than actually solve it.

So how did we end up in this topsy-turvy situation where an extremely tough set of reforms on immigration was actually shot down by Republicans? And why is it like making a sausage?

That is what's happening here. You're seeing the messy sausage-making, the process of democracy play out.

I'm Joan E. Grieve, senior political reporter for The Guardian U.S., in, for Jonathan Friedland. And this is Politics Weekly America.

So the Senate finally voted on a hotly anticipated border security bill. That bill was included in a big funding package that Congress really wants to pass. There are many Republicans, many Democrats in the Senate, in the House, who still value sending money to help Ukraine in their war against Russia, also help Israel in the war against Hamas, also sending humanitarian aid to Gaza, and also funding to the Indo-Pacific, as they also try and defend their democracies. The reason we haven't been able to see this big funding package passed is because House Republicans, who have the majority, were telling the Democratic Senate, hey, we're not going to pass this unless we secure our borders first. That teed off months of negotiations between a small group of bipartisan senators who had the full intention to try and do the impossible and find consensus on a border security.

solution. How did immigration become such a pressing issue for Congress? How did this get to be in the spotlight?

Well, we have seen a historic rise in the number of migrants trying to get through the border, successfully getting through the U.S.-Mexico border under the Biden administration. And this really has become a big issue that Republicans talk about all the time. It's an election year. So it was not surprising to see House Republicans, who have the majority, to say we are the party trying to protect the border. We're pushing Democrats to actually take this seriously. We're going to make this happen.

So we have this standoff in Congress where Republicans essentially say, no, we will not approve foreign funding without some border security measures. And once they make that position clear, we then see a bipartisan group of senators go to the negotiating table to try to come up with some kind of compromise. Walk us through what that negotiating process looked like and what ultimately became of those border talks.

You know, I have seen many negotiations with senators, members of the House, who go into them well-intentioned, knowing that it would be really difficult to possibly get an outcome, but are going to try it anyways. And, you know, many, many, many lawmakers doubted that this group of three senators, James Lankford on the Republican side, Chris Murphy on the Democratic side, and Kyrsten Sinema, who was formerly a Democrat, now an independent. When they went in, many people really doubted they could come out with a deal. And it did take months. And the reason why is because immigration has become such a politically toxic issue. A lot of the conversation over the last two to three months really hinged on changes to the asylum system and also changes to the parole system, things that just are very, very in the weeds. And, you know, sometimes they would come out and say, I think we're making progress. Actually, they were going to get there, only to say, at the end of the week, we're actually going to delay releasing text of this because we're still working things out. So it was a lot of that back and forth. And I should add, because it took so long and because there was this teasing of, we're going to release the bill, hold on, we're still working on it, it really allowed a lot of far-right Republicans in particular to kind of just spread misinformation about what was in this bill. They were claiming, you know, we, we got the leaks on what they're negotiating. That got onto Fox News and other conservative media outlets who, just, you know, started to tarnish this bill before we even knew specifically what was in it. We knew that it was finally released after being kept hidden from the public for months, that the Schumer-McConnell border insecurity bill would be bad. But even we didn't realize how bad. That influenced the Republican base and explains why Republicans so quickly did a 180 the moment that this bill was revealed and said, yeah, nope, we're not considering this at all.

And it was still pretty surprising for Republicans to immediately take that negative stance, because it's this bill has been described by many people as essentially the most severe set of changes to border policy in decades. So, with all of your experience covering Congress, were you surprised by how quickly Republicans turned against it, given what was included in the bill?

You know, I actually was. I primarily covered the House, so I was keeping in touch with House Republican leadership. What should we anticipate when the Senate comes out with their proposal? What are you all going to do? And essentially, leadership was telegraphing that they would consider the Senate text, read it over, and have a lot of meetings among the Republican conference, have, you know, the most far right wing of the conference to the most moderate wing kind of? just hash it out, talk about it. Do we bring it onto the floor, as is? None of that happened. And the reason why, my understanding is, is because primary voters are in the middle of primary season. Even moderate Republicans are fearful of that primary base being challenged by them. They want to get reelected. They want to get to the general. So they don't want to take controversial votes. And those primary voters, because they were listening to conservative media, hearing that this bill was horrible, not to mention that former President Donald Trump, who appears to be moving into the direction of being the nominee, he came out and said, Republicans, don't vote for this. This is a horrible bill. Even before the text came out, even before we knew what it was, this is horrible. Don't do it. That quickly turned House Republican leadership's mind and also Senate Republicans realized, OK, we're in trouble. And very quickly they said that this bill was dead, that Republicans were not going to support this proposal.

So we have Republicans coming out pretty much immediately saying this bill doesn't do enough to address the situation at the border. We will not support it. And at the same time, we also saw some lawmakers on the left already saying that they would oppose the bill because they said that the border measures were actually too severe for them to support. Can you tell us a little bit about that, and how did Democratic senators ultimately end up voting on Wednesday?

Yeah, you know, it's been fascinating to see just the reaction that this proposal has gotten, because it really does incorporate a number of Republican asks and a number of Democratic asks in a way that makes many people in both parties upset. That is compromised, especially in this era of very, very, very divided government and very narrow majorities. You know, on the Democratic side, they were very upset. And I should say Democrats remain pretty upset as to how Biden has incorporated a number of Republican talking points, a number of policies that Trump instituted, like remain in Mexico. There is some provision within this border security bill that would essentially shut down certain ports of entry if there is a certain threshold of migrants going into the country at a certain point. That's pretty historic. That's the kind of stuff the Democrats said, you know, is inhumane. We shouldn't be doing that. Republicans want that kind of forceful enforcement in place.

And of course, we had seen President Biden calling on Congress to pass this bill. He was really hoping that it would make it to his desk. How has he reacted seeing it fail over the past few days?

Well, you know, he actually came out and gave a speech, again, imploring Republicans to try and pass it, because he was trying to get his party to also support this measure. A good number of Democrats did, for the record. And Biden really used his speech this week to say, I am going to target Trump and blame Trump if Republicans fail to pass this bill, because he was the one who just said, nope, this border bill sucks. Don't vote for it. This is Trump's fault. So Democrats are actually kind of flipping the script. now. Democrats are saying, we literally gave you an option. We're not the ones holding this back. We tried. We actually came up with a proposal. We actually reached consensus with Republicans and independents. This is a good bill. And the ones who sunk it were Republicans.

And do you think that that could actually work on the campaign trail? You know, historically, Republicans have had such an advantage when it comes to talking about the border. Do you think this could be an opening for Democrats to really flip?

that script? I think it remains to be seen whether, you know, there will be a flip script. But here's the thing. There is evidence. now. People can go and look at how Republicans voted, can go out and look at just how quickly Republican leadership, Republican members, senators, said, no, I'm not considering this bill, like literally 10 minutes after the text was released. And I've heard it privately from more pragmatic Republicans who now have concerns, had, I should say, concerns that if they didn't take this moment, it's unclear when there will be another moment that they could try and actually do something on the border. There is much more agreement that Congress needs to act. Congress needs to do something to help border security agents. And there's only so much Biden can do. And Republicans do fear that if Biden were to sign executive orders on his own, closer to the election. And let's say things start getting better at the border. And then Democrats are saying, look, Biden actually did something. This is, this could be a win that could convince people if they see that there's no longer all of these images of migrants coming through the border, hearing these really horrible stories of migrants dying, getting into the country. I think that would help Democrats maybe even make a stronger case. Say Biden did this all by himself because Republicans refused to pass a bill through Congress.

As of now, we're seeing the Senate try to take action on a supplemental funding bill that does not include the border provisions and really exclusively focuses on that funding for allies like Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. In your mind, is there any chance of that? making it through Congress?

As of right now, there's still a lot of support in the Senate from Republicans and Democrats to try and send money to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan. That is an imperative to some members. Is this funding package going to pass? That's still a question. As of right now, senators are still clearly trying to twist some arms to make sure that this original supplemental package can pass. But let's say, hypothetically, if the Senate were to pass a Ukraine-Israel funding bill and it gets tossed to the House, that could get really complicated, because we have seen over the last couple of years, support by House Republicans to send money to Ukraine has just completely fallen. There are still some Republicans who do support it, who still say we need to, you know, help our allies defend themselves. But there's just so many in the far right who absolutely do not want to vote. And this also complicates things for Speaker Mike Johnson. He's been on the job, I think, roughly 100 days. And you have members like Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has already said publicly she will move to motion to vacate him from the speakership if he puts any Ukraine funding bill on the floor. So the future of sending aid looks so much more complicated in the House. Even if the Senate can do it, there is this feeling of, well, we may actually, as Congress, not be able to approve this and Biden won't be able to sign into law sending any more funding. It gets trickier and more complicated and way more political the closer we get to that. November 2024 election date.

And overall, this is a more big picture question, but when you think about all the events of the past week, how do you think they might affect the public's impression of Congress? We already saw some headlines at the end of last year about how the session of Congress has been historically unproductive. Do you think that this just feeds into the public's impression that Congress can't get anything done? Absolutely.

I mean, I've heard it from Republicans, and Democrats have also realized that their own voters say that they just don't distinguish Democrats being any different from Republicans, because Congress as a whole just can't get a number of issues done. Democrats, of course, are going to go out and campaign and say factually so. They were a more productive Congress when House Democrats had the majority. They passed a number of bills, including putting more infrastructure money to different projects across the country, a bill trying to counter China. They did much bigger picture things when they had the majority. Republicans had not claimed that and they realized that. So totally, the fact that border security is something that was agreed to, again, by a Republican, a Democrat, Independent, really did have the blessing by a lot of people. We have seen a number of groups, who usually are critical, coming out and also saying, you know what, this is actually a pretty good bill. Really hope Congress can pass it. The fact that they're not going to definitely adds to this feeling across the country that polls have shown time and time again. Congress isn't doing anything for me. And that could also be an issue when it comes to voter turnout. Lots of voters feel like if Congress, if politicians, aren't doing things that I would love to see them do, if they literally can't even agree on these big issues that everyone says need to be addressed, why am I going to turn out and vote?

I want to ask you a question a little bit away from Capitol Hill, which is about Donald Trump. We've already talked about him a little bit because, as you said, he played a really pivotal role in helping to sink this border bill. He called on Republicans to oppose it. He said that it was going to be essentially a trap for Republicans to be blamed for immigration in the elections. And it seems like a lot of Republicans did ultimately listen to him. And on a separate front, we also saw a Washington court rule that Trump does not have presidential immunity over his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. So, overall, where does Trump's presidential campaign stand at this point? And what does it feel like he is running on?

You know, we are about to enter unprecedented territory. And the amount of times I've heard unprecedented territory in the last year, by God, hasn't been too much. But it really is true. I mean, when it comes to the immunity case, this has been Trump's whole argument. Oh, I'm immune. I'm immune just because I was president, or these things happened. during the time when I was president. It was significant that this court unanimously, it was two Democratic appointed judges and one Republican appointed judge unanimously said, nope, not a good enough argument. So we are going to see a number of these cases against him obviously play out as the year goes on. Many people have pointed to the fact that we're going to see Trump on the campaign trail and then Trump in the courtroom. But Trump is defiant. I mean, he has completely been able to just keep a hold on the base. And the reason why is because he has long made the argument and very much continues to make the argument that he is defending those people from attack. And that resonates to a very populist base. They have his back. That's why we have also seen, you know, when these indictments have come out, his support has skyrocketed. As we have seen, his influence is so strong, so strong that Republicans who are open and eager to consider a border security bill quickly were like, yep, no, we're not going to do that. The moment that Trump said, don't support that. And privately, because they would never say publicly, there are, you know, pragmatic governing Republicans on Capitol Hill who just don't want to live in another era of Trump. They just don't want to deal with that unpredictability. But they voted alongside him. They'll probably likely continue to vote alongside him. And that has obviously fostered the fact that we have seen when Republicans do buck Trump and say, you know, I'm leaving the party. Party's owned by Trump. Those people go. And Trump's influence very much still remains.

And we'll have to see if voters remain behind Trump as well. We'll find that one out in November. Mariana Sotomayor, congressional reporter at The Washington Post. Thanks so much for joining us on the podcast this week. Thanks for having me. And that's it for me this week. If you're after more political podcasts, don't miss this week's episode of Politics Weekly UK, where John Harris was in Wellingborough ahead of the by-election to replace conservative MP Peter Bone. It's a great listen. But for now, it's goodbye. The producer was Josh Incharna and the executive producer is Maz Ebtehaj. I've been Joan Egrie. Jonathan Friedland will be back next week. Thanks for listening.

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